We’ve had so many polls on the gubernatorial race lately that it’s hard to stay on top of them all. So I’ve compiled all the surveys from April, right here:

SurveyUSA – Cooper +4
Elon – Cooper +6
PPP – Cooper +1
Civitas – Cooper +10
RABA – Cooper +5
Strategic Partners – McCrory +3

The average of all the polls for the month of April is Cooper +3.8. It’s not hard to tell what has allowed Cooper to put some distance between himself and McCrory. HB 2 has probably harmed the governor with the suburban voters he won overwhelmingly back in 2012. The bottom line is that, right now, this is no longer a pure toss-up race. It at the very least tilts toward Cooper.

The trajectory of the race could easily change, though. One of the big uncertainties is what’s going to happen with HB 2. Republicans in the General Assembly have four options: complete repeal, tweaking it slightly, putting the law up to a referendum, or doing nothing. Initially, observers thought legislators would only tweak it. Now, even Republican legislators are talking about repeal. That doesn’t mean it will happen, but it is at least on the table. What they ultimately decide will have a huge impact on this race.

3 Comments

  1. Ebrun

    Seems like what the NC GOP leaders are going to do is to legally challenge Obama’s DOJ in the federal courts. This DOJ finding is merely advisory, They’ll have to file suit to enforce it. They did the same with regard to the state’s election reform laws and just recently lost in federal district court.

  2. Maurice Murray III

    Why did the conservative Civitas polling show Cooper as ten points ahead? I thought Civitas would tilt towards the republicon governor.

    I would agree with the average of those polls because eliminating the two outliers (e.g. Cooper +10 and McCrory +3) gives an average of 4, which is nearly identical to 3.8.

  3. Apply Liberally

    What the GOP does with HB2 legislatvely won’t help McCrory much at all.

    He threatened Charlotte about passing its local ordinance; he signed HB2 immediately (apparently without reading it or considering its ramifications); his FAQ/defenses of it have been blind/lame/debunked/ridiculed; his executive order hardly changed it at all; he recently laughed about HB2 and the controversy on a radio talk show; and, most importantly, his support of it has led to the elimination of jobs and company expansions, has hurt trade shows, convention traffic and tourism.

    His signing it and championing of it are blunders that he will be unable to duck during the campaign.

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