A new CNN poll shows the political environment getting tougher for Republicans as we head into the final months of 2017. On the generic ballot, Democrats hold a 51% to 37% advantage. Donald Trump is underwater by 20 points with only 37% approving of the way he’s handling the presidency and 57% disapproving. CNN’s headline says Trump’s approval is holding steady, so we can assume that a little more than a third of the population will support him no matter what.
I’m skeptical, though. The poll shows that the Democratic lead in the generic ballot is based on a unified party in opposition of Republicans. According the poll, 98% of self-identified Democrats say they prefer a Democrat to represent them in Congress while only 88% of Republicans want a Republican. That may be true now, but I’m not sure Democrats are that loyal to their party.
Both parties are a mess. They’re both rife with infighting, but Republicans seem to stick together much better than Democrats. Donald Trump won the election because Republicans who didn’t like or approve of him still voted for him. On the Democratic side, enough Democrats either stayed home or voted third party to hand the presidency to the Republicans. We saw the same thing happen in 2000 when enough of the Democrats’ left flank chose Ralph Nader over Al Gore.
Midterms are dramatically different than presidential elections. Far fewer people vote in off-years and the ones that do tend to be more loyal to their parties. That may hold Democrats together. However, the infighting among Democrats is fierce. The left flank wants a much more aggressive agenda including single-payer healthcare, a $15 minimum wage, and free college tuition. The centrist, establishment wing would prefer more incremental changes including working to fix Obamacare and a focus on infrastructure projects.
Two scenarios could change the numbers in those polls. Democrats could follow the Tea Party’s example and nominate candidates who are out of sync with their districts. Democrats held the Senate in 2010 and 2012 because the GOP nominated people like Todd (Legitimate rape) Akin and Christine (I dabbled into witchcraft) O’Donnell. To take back Congress, Democrats will need to win in some relatively conservative districts and states and their nominees need to reflect that.
The other scenario is Democrats staying home. If Democrats nominate centrist candidates, will the base that’s demanding a more progressive agenda support them? Those candidates will need to aggressively reach out to their base and the base will need to actively support candidates with whom they may differ on substantial policy issues. Both sides will need to recognize the need for a big tent.
All that said, the Democrats are in a strong position heading into the 2018 election cycle. Donald Trump doesn’t seem to be moderating his behavior and Republicans haven’t found the key to reeling him in. The GOP-controlled Congress has accomplished very little and their tax reform proposal may hurt them more than help them. Still, Democrats need to stay united and set aside their differences until they have a real reason, not a hypothetical one, to fight. Until they control some branch of government, the infighting is an exercise in futility.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
This poll is the one that better be paid attention to.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html
It is the RealClearPolitics poll average for direction of the country. Currently over 60% think we are headed in the wrong direction. That has been a pretty consistent level of pessimism for the last few years. People really want big changes. That’s what the Republicans are promising. That better be the message that a Democratic candidate is bringing if they want to win in most places.
I hope we’re not going to be resurrecting Ralph Nader as a scapegoat for “handing the presidency to the Republicans” with the implication that Jill Stein (and maybe Gary Johnson) helped put Donald Trump in the White House. The problem is not the candidates and certainly not the voters. The problem is a dysfunctional and divisive winner-take-all election system that inevitably leads to such outcomes. There are ways now under discussion for reforming our flawed voting system, and Democratic Party leaders need to get behind them. Democrats could have moved toward such changes when they had power– but didn’t. Now is the time to give full support to meaningful redistricting reform, changing the electoral college through the National Popular Vote plan, and some form of proportional representation for legislative and congressional elections.
I hope you’re not suggesting that Nader didn’t give the presidency to Bush and that Jill Stein didn’t give the presidency to Trump.
I guess when the D’s were in control in 80’s and 90’s the district were neutral.
Gerrymandering, voter suppression, right wing media and massive amounts of Republican money will prevent Democracy from coming to North Carolina. The minority has control, and they aren’t going to give it up.
I think Democrats across the spectrum would support any candidate that actually articulates a concrete vision of any kind – as opposed to those who articulate that they “will work across the aisle”, or “focus on issues important to the American People”, or “be a uniter not a divider”, or “i feel your pain”, and other such meaningless drivel.
A concrete heath care plan and a concrete infrastructure/jobs plan would be a winning formula. But we won’t get that.
Instead all of our candidates will be told things like: “don’t say anything while the Republicans are destroying themselves” and “your numbers go down as soon as you get specific” and “you have to win to lead (in that order)”.
The problem with winning back power by doing nothing, and relying on “those guys are worse”, is that you have no mandate when you do take office. Strong opposition is immediate – and there is no pressure on the other side to “get with the program the people voted for”. Even when we win, we lose.
Unless we actually stand for something. Anything.