Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies (POS) is the official pollster for the Tillis campaign. Yesterday, he released an internal poll which showed the two candidates tied with 43% each and Haugh taking 8% of the vote (the YouGov poll from Sunday showed Haugh taking only 5%).
Why release an internal showing your candidate tied when other public polls show the same result or better for Tillis? Most likely, it’s a fundraising appeal. Note the bottom of the memo, which says that Tillis is in a good position if he has the money to fight back against Democratic attacks.
What’s most interesting about the poll is the demographic sample:
“Respondents in the Tillis poll were 72 percent white, 21 percent African-American and 7 percent “other minorities,” and 32 percent Republican and 41 percent Democrat. By comparison, in 2012 exit polls, voters were 70 percent white and 23 percent African-American and 33 percent Republican and 39 percent Democrat.”
This is pretty much a “worst case scenario” turnout model for the Republicans. And yet, the poll finds that Tillis is still in a good position to win. If the electorate looks more like 2010 than 2012, and should Haugh continue to lose support to the Republican, then Speaker Tillis will be in a strong position to win.
Hagan’s path to victory: eviscerate Tillis and hope that Obama doesn’t get more unpopular between now and the election. Right now, the Hagan people are focusing heavily on Tillis’s “mansplaining” in the last debate, in the hopes of ginning up support with women. That probably won’t be enough. And if there’s a Republican wave like some respected pundits are now predicting, Hagan’s path to victory is closed.
The good news for Hagan? Her own camp released an internal poll showing her up by 3 points (the latest PPP poll paints a somewhat rosier picture for the incumbent, giving her a lead of 4 points). And an analysis of the YouGov poll reveals that undecideds might be disproportionately Democratic-leaning. They are certainly disproportionately female and African American. And Democrats are doing much better compared to 2010 when it comes to absentee balloting. In particular, African Americans appear to be more energized than four years ago. But some caveats: 2010 was a disastrous year for Democrats in North Carolina. We should expect a large increase in Democratic engagement from that year. And it’s only one day, the first day of absentee ballots being available. We’ll continue to monitor trends from absentee and early balloting in order to get an idea of whether this is going to be a Republican year or not.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
A very unpopular senator is tied with the man who saved NC from the Democrats? Paid that great raise to the teachers? Wants to untether us from the cross of Obamacare?
I think Tillis is in big trouble. Here’s to hoping he’s got more time this winter to throw steak and salmon on his bbq…
She’s not backing out. She won’t do a fourth. Tillis wanted 10. They agreed on 3 debates; there will be three. Now Tillis wants a fourth. He’s playing games……
so why is hagan backing out from another debate? hmmmm?
Here’s the point you are missing, John.
The first of 3 debates gave Tillis his initial opportunity to look, sound and be senatorial. He was one of only two candidates on stage; Haugh was not given an opportunity to debate. His standing was reinforced by a dropping unemployment rate, and a so-called historic pay raise for teachers. Tillis also had the luxury of being in good position to attack any actions/programs of the current POTUS who is of Hagan party and not a popular leader at this time.
And then the debate happened. Tillis looked good in his suit (compared to Hagan whose choice in outfit and hair-do was ill-advised), but beyond that, he didn’t do/say enough to make a significant difference in the polls.
Why? Anyone’s guess, but it’s likely that the disrespect shown Hagan (in using her first name and implying that she, a woman, is not good at math) didn’t help him among female voters. And as more people are growing to understand that the teacher pay raise was not really what he and the GOP claimed it was, that fracking in NC was just around the corner, and that the so-called “Carolina Comeback” is a bogus confection, his election prospects didn’t change all that much.
In short, by rights, Tillis should have put some distance between himself and Hagan. And he didn’t.