Here’s some more stuff from the PPP poll from last week which deserves some commentary. (I sometimes wonder how they’re able to get respondents to sit through their entire survey). They polled on Governor McCrory’s approval rating and on the 2016 presidential race, among other things. Let’s take a look at it.

McCrory Approval
39% Approve (-1)
45% Disapprove (-3)

McCrory is actually less unpopular than he was a month ago. In all likelihood, it’s statistical noise. If he wants a second term, he’s going to have to bring that approval up some. He has a ways to go, but his approval is not nearly as bad as it was back in late summer/early fall. It could be that perception of a “Carolina Comeback” is helping his approval rating.

Who calls the shots in Raleigh?
Legislature – 43%
McCrory – 27%

A third of survey respondents said they didn’t know, a sure sign that they don’t really give the matter much thought. All this talk of conflict between McCrory, the legislature, who calls the shots, et cetera is inside baseball. If McCrory is perceived as a weak governor, that’ll hurt him, but much more important is the state of the economy.

2016 Governor Race
Pat McCrory – 44% (+1)
Roy Cooper – 42% (no change)

McCrory leads by 2 points, but that’s not necessarily good news: Cooper is an unknown. Or a relative unknown, anyway. When Pat’s approval rating is 50% or better, then he can stop worrying about being a one-term governor. Right now, he’s definitely vulnerable. But a lot can change in two years. (A little can also change. Remember, Bev Perdue’s approval rating was in the toilet back in 2010 and never recovered.)

Legislative GOP Favorability
35% Favorable (+4)
47% Unfavorable (-4)

Voters view their GOP legislators much more favorably than last month. It’s more than just statistical noise. Perhaps a commitment to teacher salary raises has mollified voters toward the Republicans?

Legislative Democrats Favorability
32% Favorable (-1)
50% Unfavorable (+1)

Democrats, on the other hand, have gotten more unpopular. Perhaps this sample is more GOP-leaning than the last time? If Democrats really have gotten more unpopular, what’s the cause?

General Assembly Approval
18% Approve (+2)
54% Disapprove (-2)

Be very, very suspicious of numbers like these. They don’t mean anything, or much of anything. Voters these days are in a foul mood, particularly when it comes to legislatures. Obviously, it would be great for Republicans if the numbers were reversed, but that’s just not going to happen in today’s political climate. Voters have a Pavlovian response when asked their approval of Congress, or the legislature, or most political institutions these days. It’s almost always ‘disapprove’!

Generic Legislative Ballot
43% Republican (no change)
41% Democrat (-2)

Now, this is a question that matters. And the generic legislative ballot is roughly tied. Come November, look for a continuation of the status quo in the General Assembly. That means Republican super-majorities, or something close to it, in both chambers of the legislature. Right now it’s an open question whether those super-majorities will be maintained. But Republicans have a strong chance of keeping them.

2016 Presidential Race
Clinton – 45% (no change)
Bush – 44% (+2)

Clinton – 45% (+1)
Christie – 41% (+1)

Clinton – 46% (+1)
Huckabee – 43% (no change)

Clinton – 46% (+1)
Paul – 43% (-1)

The most useless part of the survey. We have no idea how strong a candidate Hillary Clinton will be in 2016, or even if she’ll run. North Carolina should be competitive again, but Hillary’s coalition will look a lot different than Obama’s coalition in the state. She’ll probably do better with white voters, particularly in the western part of the state, but there will probably be a drop in turnout and support from black voters and also less enthusiasm from the young people. (And I highly doubt Bush will run, because his wife hates the idea of a campaign, end of story.)

Burr Approval
32% Approve (+5)
33% Disapprove (-2)

Burr’s approach ticked upward from last month. I guess voters liked his letter to the Veterans of Foreign Wars, or more likely, were not paying attention. Anyway, Burr will face a competitive race in 2016 if he runs again. If Republicans take back the Senate, that will increase his chances of running again. If he does, Secretary of Transportation and former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx looks like a potential Democratic opponent.

PPP also polled on tenure rights for teachers, the law repealing the privilege tax, and film incentives (voters support, oppose, and support these things respectively). But the numbers are not overwhelming one way or the other and the responses will vary drastically based on question wording, so take those findings with a grain of salt.

The full poll, on these miscellaneous topics, can be found here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_619.pdf.