Lately, I don’t know what to make of what’s going on in North Carolina, in regards to the political environment. I don’t think anyone will really know until the dust settles from this current legislative session about a month from now. About a month or two ago I thought Hagan was building an advantage, but I thought it would disappear once the legislature was out of session. Then about two weeks ago there was a noticeable shift in Tillis’s direction.

And now, I don’t know what to think. If the polls Thomas Mills referred to yesterday are accurate, then we could see a mini-Democratic wave building at the state level. latest PPP poll shows Tillis closing the gap. Could there be a mixed result, with Tillis winning but legislative Republicans suffering big losses? I just don’t think that’s possible. But it’s time to delve into the data and see what the voters themselves are telling us …

Likely voters?
My first thought is that this is apparently a likely voters poll, but PPP has an electorate that voted for Mitt Romney by only 3 points (Mitt Romney won the state by 2). There are three possibilities: (1) North Carolina has gotten a lot more blue in the last two years, (2) Democrats are almost as energized as they were in 2012, or (3) the poll is wrong. Right now, I’m leaning toward #3, but I’ll concede that #2 is a possibility, since there are some factors unique to the political environment in North Carolina that might defy national trends.

Voters who identify themselves as Democrats also have an 11-point edge over voters who identify themselves as Republicans. That seems a little high. That is, again, on par with 2012. I’m not saying it’s wrong, only that PPP is seeing an electorate that is not typical of midterms.

At the same time, whites are 75% of the electorate, and African Americans are 20%. This is a racial composition that is more reflective of 2010. I think it’s very important, like the Rasmussen poll from earlier which showed Tillis with a 5-point lead, to take this poll with a grain of salt. It probably represents Hagan’s best-case scenario.

General election
Hagan – 42% (+1)
Tillis – 38% (+4)
Haugh – 8% (no change)

You might remember that Hagan had a 7-point lead in the last PPP poll. So, this Democratic partisan pollster has also found a shift in Tillis’s direction. This is not surprising: an adjustment to likely voters, and maybe also a side effect of the teacher raises (or, for liberal readers – the perception of teacher raises).

42% is not a good place to be for an incumbent (then again, 38% is not a good place to be for a challenger). And Haugh is still taking 8%. This is surprising. It could be simply that both candidates are disliked and likely voters are just as, well, likely to go third party in the Senate race. This brings me to another point: this is a three-person race, not a two-person race. The latter might be nicer for Republicans to look at but Haugh is going to be on the ballot no matter what and you better believe he is going to take some votes away from Tillis. How much, we don’t know. But history says the Libertarian is going to take 3% of the vote. In this election, I think 3% is probably Haugh’s floor. Haugh has the potential to take even more, despite his lack of money. This could be a result similar to the Virginia gubernatorial election of 2013 – which the Hagan camp sees as a model to replicate in November.

Obama Approval
41% Approve (no change)
54% Disapprove (-1)

Ouch. But not surprising, and on par with his numbers nationwide. It would be great for Hagan if Obama somehow became more popular again, but that’s not going to happen. They’re going to have to play with the cards they’re dealt. They’re not good cards, and Obama will probably have similar numbers until the end of his presidency.

Favorable/Unfavorable
Number in parentheses: net favorability. Next number: change in net favorability since last month.)
Hagan 42/49 (-7) +3
Tillis 28/48 (-20) +3
Haugh 8/17 (-9) +4

All the candidates have gotten slightly more popular since last month. This could be apathetic, unlikely voters dropping out of the voting pool – though again I have concerns as to how “likely” these voters are. PPP appears to be using a very loose likely voter screen. The other alternative, again, is that Democrats are more excited than anticipated.

General Assembly Approval
21% Approve (+2)
57% Disapprove (no change)

The legislature is just as unpopular as last month, with a statistically insignificant change in approval. It doesn’t look like teacher raises has dramatically improved the legislature’s image. If this hurts Tillis, then one should look at the approval ratings for Congress, of which Hagan is a part. (And remember, some who disapprove of the legislature disapprove of government, period – Tea Party folks).

Legislative Republicans Favorability
34% Approve (+3)
51% Disapprove (-1)

A month ago, legislators of the GOP had a -21 net favorability. Now it’s -17. Perhaps the teacher raises are making them more popular than before, or it could be the switch to a likely voter model which brings more engaged and possibly happier voters.

Without Haugh
43% Hagan (+1)
42% Tillis (+3)

The “No Haugh” question also shows a shift towards Tillis. But, Republicans should not be taking comfort in this result. Haugh will be on the ballot, period, and Tillis is going to have to appeal to some of his voters. (Either that, or PPP is not using a very tight likely voter screen, and this also artificially inflates Haugh’s support.)

Summary, for those who don’t have the time:
1. At this point in time, PPP is seeing what looks like an energized Democratic Party, assuming the poll is correct.
2. Tillis is doing better in the polls than last month. This is reflected by every recent survey.
3. Despite my concerns about the PPP’s sample here, Sean Haugh is still a candidate and Tillis backers should not count on all his supporters coming round to the House Speaker in the end.
4. We’re in the very late part of the “too early” phase. About a month from now, we’ll get a better sense of the political environment in North Carolina. Does a Republican mini-wave elect Tillis and protect GOP legislators at the state level, or does discontent with the General Assembly produce “reverse coattails” which sends Hagan back to six more years in Washington D.C., despite her bad approval ratings?
5. Or, do we get a mixed result where Democrats do very well at the state level, but Hagan goes down? I have not considered this as a possibility, but maybe it’s time to give this some thought. (If this happens, it would be a reflection on how terrible Hagan is – despite an unpopular General Assembly, where Republicans lose a large number of seats, she goes down to the leader and the face of that body!)

Partisans can spin this poll to their needs. NC Democrats can say that she leads by 4 points and that the “midterm dropoff” will be much less than anticipated, and that because of it Republicans are about to pay a big price at the state level. Republicans have a ready retort for that kind of spin: the poll is wrong. PPP is looking at an electorate that’s unlikely to be in place for November, and even then Hagan is up by only 1 point in a head-to-head. Advantage Tillis. This is all spin, but someone’s spin is going to be an accurate forecast of November and someone else’s is not.

Averaging the Polls
Hagan – 42.2%
Tillis – 41.6%
Haugh – 5.8%