Predictions 2021

by | Jan 1, 2021 | Editor's Blog | 5 comments

Happy New Year and good riddance 2020. It’s time to look back at my predictions for 2020 and make a few about 2021. Let’s hope it’s a better year than the one that just passed. 

Last year, I predicted that Joe Biden would win the Democratic primary in North Carolina. I also predicted that if Biden won the nomination, North Carolina would go narrowly for him while Trump would lose nationally in a landslide. Trump won North Carolina and lost by a wide margin nationally, but not enough to call it a landslide. 

In other races, I predicted that Roy Cooper would be re-elected by a margin of 52-48. He won 52-47. I also predicted Cal Cunningham would be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate and the election would hinge on whether or not Trump won the state. I predicted that Democrats would take the state house but they actually lost seats. 

I did not predict the coronavirus or the awakening that’s taken place in the wake of George Floyd’s death. I did not foresee Cunningham’s sex scandal. I did not predict that Trump and his minions would refuse to concede. I vastly underestimated the Republican Party’s descent into authoritarianism and conspiracy theories. 

In 2021, we will see continued rancor on the political landscape. About a third of the GOP Members of Congress will vote to overturn the will of the people. Right-wing mobs will descend on Washington on January 6 with sporadic incidents of violence continuing through the inauguration. The conservative press and think tanks here in North Carolina will continue their silence about Members of Congress trying to undermine our Constitution, government, electoral system. They will not consider the armed threats from right-wing militia while continuing to warn of the dangers of organizations like Black Lives Matter, conflating any protestors with Antifa. 

Nationally, the Biden administration will hit the ground running on distributing the COVID vaccine. By the summer, most people who want to be vaccinated will be vaccinated. Our economy will boom with people travelling and spending money saved during the pandemic. 

The recovery, though, will further highlight the discrepancies in our society. While the middle class that kept their jobs during the pandemic will thrive, those that lost their jobs will face pressure once evictions continue again and rest of the public shows little appetite for more expensive relief measures.  

In Georgia, Republicans Loeffler and Perdue keep their Senate seats in the run-off election. I hope I am wrong, but I am also a Southerner who has been disappointed too many times. 

With control of the Senate again, Mitch McConnell will continue his obstructionism. He will prove Biden wrong in his prediction that he can work with the Senate. The left will quickly turn on Democrats in Washington for not doing what they don’t have the power to do. 

The strong economy and end of drastic pandemic measures, though, will play in Biden’s favor and he will be popular for at least the first year of his tenure. There will be a collective sigh of relief once Leader of the Free World quits lying and threatening the people he serves and our allies abroad.

In North Carolina, Republicans will redraw legislative and Congressional districts with continued enthusiasm for gerrymandering. However, with the state’s growth in more urban/suburban regions, they will draw some particularly skewed districts, splitting counties and precincts to protect their majorities in the legislature, leaving the courts to decide the legitimacy of the districts. They will draw Congressional districts to guarantee the GOP keeps a majority in the delegation but the new district we get will be Democratic-leaning though competitive. 

By the end of the year, the Democratic and Republican primaries for U.S. Senate will be crowded and contentious. Congressional primaries will also get crowded with new districts, though incumbents will dominate in fundraising and organization. 

That’s about it for now. Hope everyone has a happy and safe new year. 

5 Comments

  1. Norma Munn

    I grew up in Georgia. I think you are right, although if there is a surprise winner, I think it will be Warnock. Not only will McConnell continue his obstruction, the Senate will also waste their time and a lot of tax payer money in investigating both Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. The violence in this country will grow, as will the poverty. That poverty will increase hunger, domestic violence, suicide and drug abuse and poorer counties and rural areas will suffer dreadfully. Racism will result in more deaths and injuries. Crime will increase. COVID-19 will still be with us, despite the vaccine, and it will continue to claim people of color, those working crowded environments, such as meat packing plants — all of which combined with the overwork within the health care system in 2020 and 2021 will result in a significant decrease in the level of care for most of us.

    And, the only thing that will keep Trump from running again is illness or NYS AG Tish James putting him in jail. (The GOP, if it is still in existence by then, would be more appropriately named the Trump Party.) The court cases on gerrymandering, which reach the Supreme Court, will either not be heard on some technicality or those who gerrymander will win. As for abortion, it will continue to be under attack along with BLM.

    As Mr. Gunter said in his posting “there is a deep problem in the soul of the country.”

  2. Mike Leonard

    My congressman is the neo-Confederate scumbag David Rouzer (NC-7). The district was gerrymandered to fit his state senate seat and he is pretty much safe there for life. I plan to get more politically involved for 2022 and work tirelessly to give the boot to every seditious Republican in the NC congressional delegation.

  3. Daryl Bowman

    You predicted 400,000 deaths from the virus. I thought that was high at the time but you will be proven correct. Real leadership may have proven you overestimated the numbers but we did not have that.
    Keep up the good work.
    I hope you are wrong about the Georgia senators so good things can get done,

  4. EZPeasy

    Your predictions are fairly grim. I’m hoping we may be surprised a bit. For instance, could the McConnell – Trump rift become uglier and longer lasting, such that many Trumpists lose their taste for politics and fail to vote without der leader on the ticket (or maligned by Turtle and company)? Might the Dem Party move further left than it looks… and find progressive policies attract more voters than what our elders… er, party leaders… expect?

  5. Rick Gunter

    Thomas Hill,

    Thank you for another excellent column.
    I fear I share your prediction about the Democrats losing both U.S. Senate seats next week. I, too, hope I am very wrong. I am an old Southern liberal and have seen too many disappointments to believe the country’s chestnuts will be snatched from a raging fire in a state whose racism is long and deep. Georgia is slowly turning purple, but it is hardly blue outside of Fulton and the immediate surrounding counties.

    The recent presidential election was the most heartbreaking in my 76 years, arguably also in the life of the republic. I am so relieved that Biden won. But when 74 million people vote for the worst president ever, there is a deep problem in the soul of the country.

    I pity Biden. The long knives are out for him by the nut jobs in the GOP. It will be a tough four years ahead. The most we can hope for is a return to a level of competence in the Oval Office and decency and empathy. That would be enough at this point.

    Happy New Year, Mr. Hill, and all of those who turn to this corner for a little sanity on the political discourse.

    Rick Gunter
    Lifer Newspaperman

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