Predictions for 2015

by | Jan 1, 2015 | Editor's Blog, Politics, Predictions | 8 comments

I guess it’s time to make predictions for 2015. To be honest, I’m not sure what to expect this coming year. My crystal ball is more than a little cloudy. However, I’ll make some broad guesses.

I expect Pat McCrory to continue to remake himself as the moderate he was when he was elected. To do that, he’ll pick a few fights with the conservatives in the legislature, particularly in the senate. He will keep up the drumbeat to expand Medicaid. He’ll lose that fight as well as a few others, but his real purpose will be to stake out a centrist position to deflect criticism that he governed too far to the right.

I also predict that the hint of scandal will continue to plague McCrory. He picked a fight with the press and accused the capitol press corps of being partisan leftists. After all of the energy they put into exposing Democrats throughout the first decade of this century, they won’t take the slight lightly and won’t give McCrory much benefit of the doubt, especially where his financial gain is concerned.

New House Speaker Tim Moore will emerge as a consensus builder, or peace-maker. Moore is an affable fellow who seems to get along with both Phil Berger and Pat McCrory. He’ll try to referee disputes and focus more on governing than reshaping government.

By April, the legislature will face a significant budget hole. Teachers and state employees will get tiny raises but programs will continue to get cut. North Carolina will get compared to Kansas and there will be an unsuccessful fight to freeze income tax rates instead of allowing them to continue to fall.

The campaign for governor will heat up throughout the year. By the end of the legislation session, which will end in early August, third party groups will air ads attacking both Pat McCrory and Roy Cooper. The governor’s race will already have exceed $5 million in advertising by the end of 2015.

An anti-Cooper Democrat will emerge by the end of the year. The candidate will appeal to younger, more progressive Democrats dissatisfied with the establishment. However, Cooper will leave 2015 with a daunting fundraising advantage and support from an array of third party groups.

Democrats will struggle to find a candidate to take on Richard Burr. Kay Hagan will eventually take a pass, saying she prefers to spend time with her grandchildren. By spring, Anthony Foxx will have emphatically declined to run for the office despite the wishes of Democrats both locally and nationally. Janet Cowell will emerge as the choice of the establishment, though several lesser known candidates will announce they are looking at the race.

In the meantime, Burr will raise a boat load of money. Third party groups will begin attacking him as Democrats search for a candidate. By December, we’ll see a back-and-forth between pro- and anti-Burr forces while the Senator saves his money for the summer and fall.

Those are my guesses for the coming year. I’m sure a lot more will happen and that North Carolina will continue to get a bunch of national attention. Have a Happy New Year. 

8 Comments

  1. Keith R. Allen

    Not to “step on his toes,” but how many times will Mr. “I am not a lobbyist” McCrory claim that his business shenanigans are a “family secret”???

    • Gregorius Caroline du Nord

      Has Kay Hagan disclosed her “family secret” as of yet? Must be great to be a Senator, just vote yourself money and if you’re a Democrat nobody says a word.

  2. Gregorius Caroline du Nord

    If the Democrat Party wants to be competitive they’d had best get their apparatus sorted. Hagan used the Wake County organization rather than the state simply because it’s such a mess. As a conservative/libertarian I hope the powers that be ignore this advice, and somehow I think they will.

    • larry

      If your wish is that the advise is ignored then why pray tell was it offered?

    • Frank McGuirt

      The “Democrat” Party? What about the Republic Party and the Libertar Party? Any suggestions for them?

  3. Tony Moore

    Democrats must move closer to the middle to have any chances of winning!

    • larry

      Where exactly is the middle? What does “the middle” mean? Define what policies are “the middle”? Are we talking middle 90s or middle 2015 ? What Democrats in this State are not in the middle? Middle of what?

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