Since tomorrow is primary day, I thought I would make a few brief predictions. Hopefully, I’ll get them all right, and people will be astonished at my amazing foresight. More likely, though, I’ll get a few of them wrong. Here goes:
U.S. Senate – Republican Primary This is the big one. I think Tillis avoids a runoff, but just barely, and Team Tillis will be up most of the night waiting nervously for all the votes to come in.
NC-02 (Republican Primary) Ellmers, by about 20 points or so. The “grassroots” conservatives who do nothing but post on blogs all day are shocked. Ellmers is vulnerable to a Republican challenger, but not to Roche.
NC-02 (Democratic Primary) Crisco, but Aiken has the late momentum.
NC-03 (Republican Primary) Now, this is one that’ll make us stay up all night. Jones, by the skin of his teeth.
NC-06 (Republican Primary) Berger doesn’t make the runoff, must deal with Mark Walker in the runoff. Bruce VonCannon places a poor third.
NC-07 (Republican Primary) Rouzer, by about the same margin as last time.
NC-09 (Republican Primary) Pittenger, by a million points.
NC-09 (Democratic Primary) Just kidding, there is no Democratic primary here. There’s not even a Democrat. The winner of the Republican primary here will be unopposed.
NC-12 (Democratic Primary) This is an interesting one. Adams wins with 30% or so of the vote. Malcolm Graham actually places third. George Battle gets into second place and goes to the runoff with Adams.
The takeaway: Almost a clean sweep for the Republican establishment, except in the Third District, where they’ll come very, very close to knocking off Jones. The big story of the night, besides Tillis winning, will be Clay Aiken’s poor performance.
Feel free to post your own predictions in the comments. The person who is most accurate gets a free pony!
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Your criticism of the NC Dem State Party is made much more legitimate by the lack of candidates in red districts. NO ONE should run unopposed.
No pick on the NC Congressional 13th Dem Primary? I’ll go with Cleary.
Agree with you on NC-13.
That’s my wild card pick. I actually think Battle would be stronger against Adams than Graham in a runoff.
Interesting call in NC 12 – I guess you figure Battle must be surging – do you think Adams might have an easier time against Battle than Graham?