Rare GOP Pick-up Opportunity in SD-25

by | Aug 7, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, NC Senate Races | 5 comments

Senate District 25 – Sen. Gene McLaurin (D) vs. Tom McInnis (R)

Senate District 25 is a rural district located in the southern Piedmont, bordering South Carolina. Shape-wise, this district isn’t too bad, but make no mistake, it’s drawn to favor Republicans. It’s comprised of two distinct areas, one Democratic and one Republican, the second part overwhelming the first. On the border with South Carolina are a number of counties (Anson, Richmond, and Scotland) highly suitable for cotton-growing, thus in the antebellum era it had a high proportion of slaves. Perhaps owing to a culture in common with their neighbors across the border, these counties enthusiastically supported secession. Once slavery was abolished and the South defeated, the unreconstructed whites in this section were drawn to the Democratic Party, an affiliation which they fiercely maintained for well over a century.

The northern counties of Stanly and Rowan, on the other hand, lacked a strong slaveholding presence, with most of their population being yeoman farmers. Thus, their support for secession was more muted and they were less intensely Democratic after the war. But the entire district has become substantially more Republican in the last few decades, though the southern counties are still Democratic thanks to the large black population. This results in a seat that is Republican-leaning, but one a popular Democrat can win if everything goes right.

And in 2012, nearly everything did go right for Democrat Gene McLaurin, who currently holds this seat. He dramatically outraised his opponent, the similarly named Gene McIntyre, who was actually in a car accident and had to forego campaigning in the last week of the race. In addition, McLaurin benefited from unprecedented African American turnout. The result was a surprisingly large McLaurin win of 6 points in a district that gave Mitt Romney 57% of the vote and Pat McCrory 61%. Still, it was still the closest Senate race won by a Democrat.

The Democratic candidate, Sen. Gene McLaurin.

The Democratic candidate, Sen. Gene McLaurin.

So how did McLaurin pull of this victory in such a red district? Mostly, it’s due to his years as mayor of Rockingham, which led to a strong performance in Richmond County. While Obama won it by only 3 points and McCrory actually won it, McLaurin won 77% of the vote there. That performance means he pretty much won all the old conservative Democrats who have abandoned the party in droves over the past couple of decades (Jimmy Carter took 75% in Richmond back in 1976).

McLaurin’s voting record is one of a moderate Democrat. He says he wants to stick up for “the little guy”, stresses public education and helping the middle class. He supports voter ID but said the VIVA bill from last year went too far and voted against it. Still, his voting record puts him to the right of every other Democrat in the Senate, which could help him in keeping his seat. Just a couple days ago, he voted for the budget that came out of the legislature.

The problem? This year, he’s up against Republican businessman Tom McInnis, who is from McLaurin’s home county and served on the school board there. (Puzzled by all the ‘Mc’s? This area has a long history of settlement by Scots). And McLaurin’s margin of victory was built almost entirely on his 10,000-vote margin in Richmond. And the huge fundraising disparity from 2012 has all but vanished; while McLaurin is still raking in more money, McInnis is staying competitive with him. Then there’s the high black population in this district which could precipitously drop off from 2012, and a midterm enthusiasm gap which should favor Republicans, and you can see why the GOP likes their chances here.

The Republican candidate, businessman and school board member Tom McInnis.

The Republican candidate, businessman and school board member Tom McInnis.

McLaurin has a few advantages too: he’s an incumbent, he has a voting record that fits the district, and legislative Republicans aren’t too popular right now. And if there’s a big backlash against the legislature, then it’s really hard to see the GOP picking up this seat. But at this point, I don’t think animosity with the General Assembly will be enough to override the likely composition of the midterm electorate, what looks like a good year for Republicans nationally, and also McInnis’s ability to eat into McLaurin’s margin in Richmond County. Just out of an abundance of caution, I’ll rate this as ‘Pure Toss-Up’, though I really think Republicans will pick this one up in the end.

Counties in district: Anson, Richmond, Rowan (part), Scotland, Stanly

District Rating: Pure Toss-Up

2012 Result
53.0% McLaurin (D)
47.0% McIntyre (R)

Voter Registration
49.0% Democrat
29.6% Republican
21.3% Unaffiliated

70.5% White
24.4% Black
5.1% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
57.2% Romney
41.9% Obama

2012 Governor
61.0% McCrory
37.4% Dalton

2010 Senate
57.2% Burr
40.9% Marshall

2008 Senate
48.5% Hagan
48.0% Dole

Social Media Support
Sen. Gene McLaurin – 556
Tom McInnis – 312

5 Comments

  1. Richmond Raider

    McInnis was recently defeated in the school board race, then appointed to fill an unexpired term of a deceased member. McLaurin will pull 75% of Richmond County.

    • ProudRepublican

      Obviously you are one of those Democrats that doesn’t know how to check the facts before you post. Mr. McInnis LED the ticket in the last Richmond County School Board race, but was appointed to the spot that was held by Ken Goodman, who won the House race in the term just before the last one. I’m quite certain that Mr. Goodman is still alive and well.

      Oh wait!! Maybe this is just another lie contrived by the Democrats in an attempt to throw others off the correct path. Y’all are full of lies these days!

  2. Mick

    ted McTeablly

    Man, that is the first time in my life that I’ve ever been called that.

    My “forefathers” have nothing to do with NC. They came to the USA through Ellis Island from Italy in 1914 and lived and died in NY, where I was born in 1949 and lived until 2006. While I am an unaffiliated voter, I have very progressive leanings (just check out all my past comments on this site). I play in a popular musical trio with two African-Americans, and I am on the campaign committee for a Dem congressional candidate trying to unseat my jerk of a conservative GOP/TP congressman.

    On re-reading my post, however, I can see how a reader might misconstrue my point. I could have written it better. In short, I was struck that Wynne felt compelled to bring up all the slavery/Civil War/Reconstruction references, and also felt he didn’t have the guts to called racists racists.

    I find it amazing that one has to go back to mid-1800s attitudes/prejudices to speculate on a present-day NC election. Sounds like you believe, like Wynne, that the heritage of slavery, Reconstruction and bigotry still plays a big role in Senate District 25. If you and Wynne are right, that is a sad state of NC affairs.

  3. Mick

    One of your worst efforts, John, and not just because of the usual superficiality of the analysis. The writing and presentation was confusing, and the historical context offered was puzzling, if not ridiculous.

    Your narrative mentions “northern counties” and then other southern counties bordering SC, but never names them. Yes, I know there’s a map provided, but if someone’s internet connection or browser can’t carry that illustration, the article is simply bereft of important context/detail.

    But mainly, I’m not sure what to do with a political analysis of this district’s forthcoming election in the year 2014 that conjures up how these counties lined up in the days of the Civil War and Reconstruction two centuries ago. What is the point of saying “in the antebellum era it had a high proportion of slaves. Perhaps owing to a culture in common with their neighbors across the border, these counties enthusiastically supported secession”? Why use the term “strong slaveholding presence”? I’m almost left to believe that it’s your effort to euphemistically point out a white voting block that is driven by bigotry. And, if that’s what’s driving things there toward a possible GOP win, well, shame on your party, John, shame.

    • ted McTeabilly

      Nice post Mick, but your retort still sounds like one of Jesse Helm’s good ole boys defending his right to be a “stealth” bigot. Pretending the demographics of this district has nothing to do with slavery is pure hogwash, so thank your forefathers for the current population.

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