The new Rasmussen poll released yesterday shows Tillis ahead by 5 points, 45%-40%. Haugh was not named, but 6% of voters said they would support another candidate, so that seems valid. This is Rasmussen’s first poll since May, which showed Tillis up by 1.
As always, take every poll with a grain of salt. It goes without saying that this is Tillis’s largest lead in any of the recent surveys. PPP, which is on the other end of the partisan spectrum as Rasmussen, shows Hagan leading by 7 points with Haugh included and 4 points in a head-to-head. One of them is wrong (at least).
Senate Race
Tillis – 45% (no change)
Hagan – 40% (-4)
Other – 6% (+1)
Undecided – 9%
The numbers in parentheses are from the May poll. Tillis’s lead is thanks to stronger support within his own party and a huge lead with independents. It should be noted that this is a likely voters poll, also.
Like Obamacare?
39% Yes (-4)
56% No (+2)
Has Obamacare helped you or hurt you?
15% Helped (-1)
34% Hurt (-1)
51% No Opinion/No Effect (+2)
How’s the economy?
21% Good or Excellent
41% Poor
Obama Approval
48% Approve (-3)
49% Disapprove (+1)
McCrory Approval
53% Approve (+5)
43% Disapprove (-1)
Now, the last two stats are really mind-boggling. There’s no way for Obama’s approval to be that high and for Tillis to be winning by 5 points. McCrory’s approval is also out of line with other polls. How in the world did Rasmussen find a sample of people who think like this? Here, I think the trends are important: Obama is less popular than he was in May, and McCrory is more popular. More polls, of course, are needed to verify the increase in McCrory’s approval ratings.
What to make of this poll? Well, it’s another data point. And we could always use more of them. But it’s just one data point, and it goes into the average. My view is that if Hagan is truly losing ground, it’s because of issues at the national level rather than anything coming out of the legislature (like teacher raises). We’ll have a much better handle on this race a month from now, when the campaign has really begun and most every pollster is looking at likely voters, the people who are actually going to show up at the polls on Election Day.
Averaging the Polls
Hagan – 42%
Tillis – 41%
Haugh – 6%
Undecided – 11%
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Pro-war pro-debt Thom Thumb: 45%
Pro-war pro-debt Kay Haggard: 40%
Undecided: 9%
HE WHO IS NOT TO BE NAMED: 6%
They don’t even let us see what the affiliation breakdown of the 750 respondents was, without paying. Lovely latest faux news.
PPP is partisan and has the best track record of any polling group. And yes you were trying to equate them as you have done the same with Civitas…Gravis…YouGov.in the past. But you do what you have to do for the spin.
Equating Rasmussen with PPP is what we call “false equivalency.” According to an academic study, PPP was the most accurate pollster in 2012. Rasumussen finished twenty-fourth of twenty-eight. One firm is credible; the other is not.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/fordham-study-public-policy-polling-deemed-most-accurate-national-pollster-in-2012
Sorry, wasn’t trying to equate the two. I was just trying to say PPP and Rasmussen are both partisan polling organizations and at least in this race see things much more favorable to their side than the average of polling.
Fair point.
There are three people running. Why conduct a poll that ignores this fact?