Reports of Trump’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated

by | Sep 29, 2015 | 2016 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics | 8 comments

The latest poll from PPP shows that reports of Trump’s demise have been greatly exaggerated by DC insiders longing for a return to normalcy. In North Carolina, Trump has expanded his lead from last month, going from 24% to 26%. He leads his nearest challenger, Ben Carson, by 5%. The results:

Trump – 26%
Carson – 21%
Fiorina – 12%
Rubio – 10%
Cruz – 9%
Huckabee – 6%
Bush – 5%
Kasich – 4%
Christie – 2%
Santorum, Jindal – 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Pataki, Paul – 0%

Some thoughts:

-Trump probably peaked early this month, an NC poll in the field at the time would have probably shown him in excess of 30%. He’s lost some of his ‘casual’ supporters to other anti-establishment figures like Carson and Fiorina, but still retains his core supporters. That quarter of the primary vote may be with him for a while.

-A decline in Carson’s numbers was possibly halted by his anti-Islam remarks. Many conservatives rallied to his side in the wake of the controversy.

-Republicans are still in their “shopping around” phase, which explains the support for Fiorina. I still think she does not have the organization to survive long-term, especially after her record at HP is scrutinized.

-Rubio is in double-digits. This is a good poll for him and shows that he is well-poised to win the support of more mainstream Republicans if Bush continues to languish.

-A terrible poll for Bush. Last month he was at 13% in the state. His moderate supporters are looking at other candidates. There might be nothing wrong with Bush but right now he hasn’t justified why he should be everyone’s #1 pick. This is a crowded field and there are lots of options for everybody, including less conservative Republicans, and Bush just hasn’t lived up to expectations.

-Keep an eye on: Christie. Jindal. To drop out soon: Paul.

The Democrats:

Clinton – 37%
Biden – 30%
Sanders – 17%

PPP notes that North Carolina looks like a strong state for Joe Biden, due largely to support from conservative Democrats. Black voters actually favor Hillary more than white voters, but where there’s a real difference is support for Sanders. Weakness with African Americans continues to make the South a tough place for Sanders to make inroads.

8 Comments

  1. Maurice Murray III

    In averages of all polls, Trump remains leading and has the most access to cash, by far. This is true for Real Clear Politics, HuffingtonPost, and 270toWin. If he drops in the polls, he can purchase millions in TV ads to elevate his standing.

  2. A. D. Reed

    Funny to see how the PPP sets up their polling. Joe Biden has 30%, close behind Hillary Clinton, with Bernie Sanders way behind them both.

    So — what about John Boehner on the Republican side? And Dick Cheney? Liz Cheney? Mitt Romney? Oh! “They’re not running, you idiot!”

    FYI, neither is Biden. But PPP will do ANYTHING to 1) hurt Hillary; 2) diminish Bernie; 3) ignore the other three Democratic candidates who ARE running (O’Malley, Webb, and Chaffee).

    Yet people actually consider a PPP poll to have validity. Of course, this report is from the “moderate Republican” John Wynne, so it’s a huge waste of screen-time to begin with, but still …

    • Apply Liberally

      Before calling anybody an idiot, try keeping up, ok?

      Many major polling services–not just PPP—have been running recent presidential polls with the “Biden possibility” included in their questions. And they are not doing that to “hurt” any candidate. They are doing it because if Biden enters the race it will shake up the polling numbers in a big way, on both the Dem side and in judging how prospective tickets would compete against each other.

  3. Norma

    Rubio has staying power. Carson, no. And why would he be OK as a VP to folks who do not support him for president? VPs do sometimes have to become president. It is a possibility that should at least be a consideration in choosing a VP. Bigotry is not a qualification the last time I looked and Carson’s remarks about not accepting a Muslim as a president fall into that category, no matter how tortured his explanation.

    As for Trump, perhaps his so called tax plan will finally wake folks up. Nice idea to promote a plan that protects one’s personal wealth and re-hashes a few odd ball ideas from other plans, while increasing the deficit by trillions! But that is pretty much the Trump business model, so no one should be surprised.

  4. Progressive Wing

    “The latest poll from PPP shows that reports of Trump’s demise have been greatly exaggerated by DC insiders longing for a return to normalcy.”

    I think you misspoke, John. I think you really meant ….”by Establlishment GOP insiders….”.

    Every passing week that Trump lands near the top in the polls further divides the party among RINOs, neo-cons, Tea-Billies, and others, further delays one candidate from coming to the fore (given that the “one candidate” clearly isn’t going to be Trump), and increases the chances/risk of raucous primary fights and a badly brokered and broken convention.

    • Ebrun

      Wishful liberal thinking, more like hoping. It’s still very early and Trump is likely to slowly fade back into the pack. The real comer is Rubio, who can get establishment and hard line support. I am looking for a Rubio/Carson or Rubio/Fiorina ticket which will scare the bejesus out of the Democrats.

      • Progressive Wing

        The only party that should be scared of a Rubio/Carson or Rubio/Fiorina ticket is the GOP itslef. Either ticket will be tripped up by their own words and positions, and easily exposed by the media.

        And I doubt very much that the Republican Party conservative base–with its misogynistic, xenophobic, and bigoted tendencies–and American voters within the center-right will support a first-generation Cuban-American, an African-American, or a woman strongly enough to win.

        And, finally, I believe that if the GOP is seen as taking any action to deliberately quash Trumps chances, he could still go 3rd Party (regardless of what he’s promised), taking a key segment of the GOP base with him.

        • Morris

          I don’t think the GOP would be at all scared of a Rubio – etc ticket. While I’m an independent – as most of us are by the way – the more I see of Rubio, the more I could see myself voting for him in the general – should he make it that far.
          The ones most scared though have to be the Dems. The more I, and evidently other people, see of Hilliary, the more her support erodes. Reminds me of 2007-2008 except I don’t see an Obama on the horizon – and she looks even worse.
          The weak bench, that the Democrat establishment self-inflicted in their desire to protect Hillary at all costs, is starting to look like the really scary movie. Biden or Sanders for president? Maybe Biden perhaps, but we all know Obama picked him because he was weak. That likely hasn’t changed.
          Anyway it is entertaining standing on the sidelines and seeing both out of touch and clueless national parties writhe in their misery.

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