Okay, it’s now time for Republicans to hit the panic button. Democrat Doug Jones won a US Senate seat in Alabama last night. Alabama! I didn’t really think it was possible, but it happened. It was the best election night for Democrats since Barack Obama won in 2008 and it sets the stage for a wave of enormous proportions next November.
Sure, Roy Moore was a uniquely flawed candidate and Republicans willing to stay home, write-in a candidate or even vote for Doug Jones made a big difference. Still, Jones enjoyed a 31% swing in vote share over Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. In special elections this year, Democrats have improved their performance by an average of 16%. If that enthusiasm gap holds going into 2018, Republicans will have a difficult time holding either the House or the Senate.
African-American voters, in particular, are engaged. Barack Obama’s candidacy inspired black voters to get more heavily involved in the political process and they’re clearly not going away. While African-American turnout in NC was down slightly in 2016 over 2012, it was far above where it was in the years preceding 2008. And turnout among African-American women (72%) was above the overall turnout (69%). In a low-turnout election like 2018, they’ll play a big role in determining the outcome.
The big losers last night, besides Roy Moore, were Donald Trump and Steve Bannon. Trump went all in for Moore in the final days of the election even as other Republicans were keeping a respectable distance. Bannon, for his part, supposedly assured Trump that Moore would win and counted on the victory to energize his war on the GOP establishment. Instead, he damaged his reputation and widened the split within the Republican Party.
The election should also dispel any GOP thoughts that their tax bill would give them credibility. They were elated after the House and Senate versions passed and leaders like Mitch McConnell backed off their criticisms of Roy Moore. While the bill might excite lobbyists and Republican Members of Congress, it’s not doing much for the GOP rank-and-file.
Finally, the election indicates that the populist movement driving the GOP today is probably the last gasp of advocates for the white power structure that’s dominated the country since its beginning. Voters under 45 went for Jones by 22 points. That’s consistent with numbers we’ve seen in other elections where millennials favor Democrats by more than 20 points. To survive as a major party, the GOP must become more inclusive and moderate. Democrats, for their part, should find room for disaffected conservatives, particularly in suburban districts where their support could give Democrats majorities in Congress and legislative chambers.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
No doubt Republicans will lose some seats in the legislative branches at both the federal and state levels in 2018. They are at their zenith now and what goes up in a two-party system will always come down some .But I seriously doubt the GOP will “panic.” In fact, they are pursuing the old adage to “may hay while the sun shines.”
The GOP tax reform package that will be passed by Congress next week and signed into law by the end of the month, is a MAJOR accomplishment. Taxes will be reduced across the board and simplified for most middle class families. And the onerous and unpopular Obamacare tax penalty, which hits the middle class the hardest, will be gone, most likely forever. That accomplishment alone will likely lead to the eventual demise and replacement of the entire Affordable Care Act.
With the economy already booming as a result of GOP pro growth policies, including the reining in of federal regulatory authorities, and with SCOTUS and other federal courts, boards and commissions now filled with conservative appointees, the GOP is certainly “making hay” while in control. In the final analysis, successful politics result in implementing the winners’ policies. And the recent Republican legal and policy wins will have a lasting and likely permanent impact on the direction of the Nation.
EBRUN, the tax package is certainly a major accomlish but that doesn’t make it a good one. The future benefits you declare are certainly not the matching what I’ve been reading. Yes the economy is doing well, but that doesn’t appear to be Trump’s doing, and the economic growth the tax cuts will predictably cause will be too much. Witness the Federal Reserve’s economy cooling interest rate increase
Either the GOP’s tax reform will enhance jobs, wages and middle class incomes or it will be an economic disaster as Democrats and liberal pundits are predicting. But what puzzles me is that if the reforms turn out to be as disastrous are liberals claim, why are they fighting so hard to stop the bill from passing. If their alarmist predictions come true, it would give them a huge political advantage in 2018 and 2020.. But I suspect that they fear the GOP tax reforms will have the opposite effect of their dire predictions..
BTW, I’ve not heard any liberals criticize tax reform because it will cause “too much” economic growth. As a saver, I am happy to see the fed begin to raise interest rates, a move that, IMO, is well overdo.
Thomas, it is not “now time for Republicans to hit the panic button.” Roy Moore was brought down by scandal, not by ideological differences between the Republican and Democratic parties. It is a good thing Moore lost, however if not for the scandal Moore would have won easily. Maybe it is now time for sexual predator politicians to hit their panic buttons. Unfortunately those politicians are not limited to the Republican Party.
And, the democrats (and especially Doug Jones) need to understand that they cannot take those African-American votes for granted. They MUST address issues central to the African-American community – environmental justice, police brutality, fair housing, voter suppression; which also includes issued faced by all communities – wage inequality, affordable health care, child care, education. If they don’t reach out at every opportunity and make these a central part of their platform, not to mention getting more African-Americans and people of color (especially women) to run for office, these type of elections are simply one-offs.
Not to rain on the party, but this post looks like it could have been a reprint from a few years ago. Lets don’t declare the white power structure dead yet. Let call it ignorance and nationalism, and expect that it will be with us in the future.
Please, please dems, do not take this as support for Bernies socialist policies. The people that just elected Jones will not vote for a socialist, and neither will a lot of your democratic constituants!
As a socialist I disagree. What the dem party lacks is an understanding of the ideas and the BLACK folks who got them to the dance. I suspect in short fashion the dems will forget all the euphoria and go back to being jerks and try the seek out the white idiots that voted for trumPutin. Will they ever learn? IMHO, no.
Just read an interesting piece that would agree with you This is a long book review from New York Review of Books. It says that the book’s author says that capitalism is predatary and for the good of the general population needs to be restrained by socialism, which I Believe is Bernie’s position. I agree in theory, but have no confidence that the electorate will figure that out. My evidence is the continued support for Trump and Republicans. You can argue that yesterday’s election in Alabama disproves that. I would reeply.\, did you see how close that election was?!
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2017/12/21/karl-polanyi-man-from-red-vienna/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NYR%20Frankenstein%20Karl%20Polanyi%20Jerusalem%20Modigliani&utm_content=NYR%20Frankenstein%20Karl%20Polanyi%20Jerusalem%20Modigliani+CID_4b04eafe8793cc62944034e8db5e88f7&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_term=The%20Man%20from%20Red%20Vienna
Ellen, I read the same article and found it a bit too close to what has been happening with regard to the degree to which money and power have consistently made economic gains for most of us a long ago dream. I am not a Bernie supporter, nor would I identify as a socialist. But I do think we need restraints on corporate conduct that prevents economic power being used without regard for the values that a representative democracy requires to survive. I also see loosening those restraints as a prime aim of Ryan, Pence and Sessions.. McConnell just want to undo what Obama did and win at any cost. I wonder how Polanyi would evaluate the impact of social media.on our democracy? It often seems to me to be a force that is dividing us into very small “groups” despite the size of some online responses. And, yes, that was a small margin win considering what Roy Moore represented. I’m glad, but I don’t see it as predictive of 2018.
Sorry Will, of course as a self identified socialist you agree with Bernie, but what % of the electorate do you think identify as socialist ant what % do you think have been conditioned (taught, brainwashed, what ever term you want to use) to believe socialism is bad?
…If that enthusiasm gap holds going into 2018, Republicans will have a difficult time holding either the House or the Senate….
Maybe we can hope that Trump’s impulsive tweeting will help with this.
John Zobgy nails it in his piece in Forbes. Here is his money line: “In the final analysis, Mr. Trump owns this loss. So does the GOP. It is so much larger than Roy Moore. While a victory could have hurt the party even more, a loss is a loss – especially when a sitting President puts his reputation on the line. “
Assuming of course that Donald J. Trump has a reputation that is worthwhile and notable to begin with.
Moore followed the playbook of Trump, denying his accusers, and calling them all liars. It worked for Trump but not for Moore. Are the times a changin’ >