I’m old enough to remember when Rep. Renee Ellmers was a Tea Party darling. She was elected in the 2010 Republican wave that caught Bob Etheridge off guard. She became the nominee by beating more establishment candidates and was given little chance to win. A nasty video showing Etheridge shoving operatives who were harassing him went viral and suddenly Ellmers was in the spotlight, a favorite of conservative blogs. She won the election by less than one point.

Fast forward a few years and Ellmers is now a RINO. Four Republicans are challenging her in the primary. One of them, Kay Daly, has accused Ellmers of child abuse because she’s passing down debt to today’s children. It’s an absurd claim but it got her press.

I ran into Daly when I was filing to run for Congress myself. She had her children with her and seemed pleasant enough. When she told me she was filing to run against Ellmers, I noted that I had just seen Frank Roche, who was filing for the same seat. She smiled knowingly and said, “If enough of us file, we can force Renee into a runoff and that’s how we’ll beat her.  I’ve been around this for a long time.”

So that’s the strategy. In 2014, Ellmers faced Roche in a primary and beat him by 17 points. This time, conservatives think they can pack the ballot and keep Ellmers from getting to 40%. In a presidential year with the likes of Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Ben Carson driving turn out, maybe they’re right. It seems to me, though, that they’re more likely to split the conservative vote, allowing Ellmers to consolidate the more establishment vote and get to 40% plus 1.

If Ellmers loses, though, the district could get competitive. All of the candidates running against her swing far to the right. While there’s little doubt the people in the district are conservative, they’re also more pragmatic than conservatives other parts of the state. In addition, the district has seen large in-migration that could help a Democrat. The one running this time is a first-time candidate named Adam Coker. His lack of ties to politics could be an advantage in a year when voters from both parties seem fed up with politics as usual.

2 Comments

  1. Nortley

    “When a candidate is short on ideas, just fall back on religious intolerance.”

    This also applies to the Republican party — the most morally and intellectually bankrupt institution in America.

  2. Dave Connelly

    Speaking of nasty, one of Ellmers’ 2010 campaign tactics was opposing the construction of a mosque in NYC, as if Manhattan had magically been grafted onto NC’s 2nd District. When a candidate is short on ideas, just fall back on religious intolerance.

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