I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on Russia, but almost 40 years ago, I took a bunch of Russian history classes in college. I was more interested in Russia in the 20th century, but I learned enough to see patterns emerge that go back centuries. While a lot of Americans saw Russia through the lens of the Cold War and equated its influence over Eastern Europe as part of a plan to spread communism, those countries that were dominated by the Soviet Union saw Russia as a bullying neighbor that had made incursions into their territory for ages.
Russia has always been insecure about its relationship with the West and its place in the world. They’ve long sought regional influence and international respect. Instead, they’ve been considered a large, lumbering, backward country with a bad temper and worse manners. They’ve been scrapping with their western neighbors for at least three hundred years.
Ukraine provides a buffer between Russia and counties that have all seen Russian forces on their soil, countries like Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, and Romania. These countries support Ukraine because they have no illusions that they may be next. An ill-tempered or opportunistic Putin would as quickly send troops into Budapest as he would Kyiv if he could launch the assault from Ukraine with little opposition. None of these countries want Russia’s westward expansion unchecked.
The reality of the situation in Ukraine is bleak. Russia will almost certainly come away with a puppet regime. A civil war may engulf the country for years to come. Eventually, possibly in decades, the Russians will probably leave or be forced out, even if they return later. Still, resistance puts limits on Putin’s expansionist ambitions. If he’s getting strong push back from the West and Ukrainians, he’s less likely to try to move into other countries that he believes belong under Russia’s thumb. He also might face resistance at home if too many Russian soldiers come home in body bags.
Russia wants desperately to be a Great Power, but it’s not. It’s still a lumbering giant with little to offer the countries it wants to influence. All Putin has is an aggressive military and the willingness to sacrifice a lot of lives, both of Russia soldiers and their foes. They aren’t bringing cutting edge technology, enlightened philosophy, or economic prosperity. They just want to make sure that none of those relatively poor eastern European countries progresses faster than them. And they don’t want western values to further permeate Russian culture.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
If this latest demonstration of Russian Military strength is supposed to cast fear on the world, then I suggest Putin made a mistake. He tipped his hand. What he showed the world was a military that lacked self-respect , organization, competent leadership, and training. His ill maintained troops became bogged down in 40-mile-long lines of outdated armor, manned by poorly supplied and managed conscripts. A wet dream for well trained and equipped attack chopper pilots. In addition, his intelligence folks are telling him about the 20 or more boomer type subs floating around his backyard loaded with missiles capable of placing four separate war heads in his swimming pool. It is said Putin’s KGB instructors remarked in his assessments that he seemed to lack an awareness of danger. That has got to be an under evaluation or just a kind way of saying he was not suited for this line of work. He has moved Russia back to a third world country of starving street bums, isolated from the modern world. Add to this a collapsing economy.
The commentary leaves out a VERY important “elephant in the room”; oil.
The top 25 consumption nations (only listing those on the European continent using 2016 numbers)
RU
80,000,000,000 – reserves (8th globally)
11,200,000,000 – produced (3rd)
3,600,000,000 – domestic consumption (5th)
= +7,600,000,000
DE
132,480,000 – reserves (66th)
212,000 – produced (35th)
2,380,000 – domestic consumption (10th)
= -2,168,000
F
18,431,000 – reserves (66th)
133,000 – produced (35th)
1,706,000 – domestic consumption (13th)
= -1,573,000
UK
2,754,685,000 – reserves (30th)
1,084,000 – produced (19th)
1,584,000 – domestic consumption (15th)
= -500,000
ES
150,000,000 – reserves (60th)
72,000 – produced (55th)
1,290,000 – domestic consumption (18th)
= -1,218,000
IT
579,232,000 – reserves (47th)
150,000 – produced (39th)
1,237,000 – domestic consumption (19th)
= -1,087,000
NL
147,892,000 – reserves (63rd)
70,000 – produced (57th)
938,000 – domestic consumption (23rd)
= -868,000
It should be apparent. Short of Russia, all of the Top 25 consumers of oil are takers, not givers, to the global market.
In fact, there are only two nations on the European continent who are givers to the global oil market; Norway (hence why it’s arguably the “richest” country) and Kazakhstan (and I’ll let you decide, if, like RU, it is even considerable to be “European”).
Think the USA will “save the day”…haha…
US
35,230,000,000 – reserves (11th)
14,800,000,000 – produced (1st)
19,700,000,000 – domestic consumption (1st)
= -4,800,000
Of the top 20 global reserves nations, only two are takers, not givers (USA & PRC). All of those top 20 givers are Central/South American, African, or Middle Eastern nations, except Canada, Russia, & Kazakhstan (see note above how you classify RU/KZ), and Canadian oil is dirty tar sands (a big part of why Keystone Pipeline was canceled). As the US has learned, NO, Canada will not save the global day.
Like it or not, Russia is a very powerful global player, even if it is lumbering bully giant.
The Soviet Union dissolved when it could not afford to keep the nations surrounding Russia hostage. The command economy could not feed its people, could not pave the roads, and could not afford to challenge the military power of the United States and Russia’s richer NATO neighbors. Russia, before the fall, was a minor economy using much of its resources to finance a first-world military. It could not afford bread and weapons. Ronald Reagan convinced Mikhail Gorbachev that Russia could pay attention to its domestic disasters and ignore perceived international threats from the west. Gorbachev trusted Reagan and relied on that promise in order to deal with a national economy that was dysfunctional in the extreme.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia’s economy which had been lagging badly behind the world began to grow. It expanded 10-fold over the 12 years after the fall of the Soviet Union, peaking in 2013. Optimists had hoped that Russia would join the free market, democratic world; instead, what emerged was a kleptocracy. Everything of value was stolen and given to a few close associates of Putin. The kleptocracy left the people of Russia far behind the people of modern nations. Per capita GDP for European nations was nearly $33,000 in 2020 while the per capita GDP for Russians was slightly more than $10,000 in the same year. For the past 9 years, the Russian economy has been on a steep slide, down 40% from its peak in 2013.
Putin’s Russia was already in deep financial jeopardy before his invasion of Ukraine as it has become clear that the people of Russia will continue to live on the scraps of the economy while the Oligarchs took the best and sent those funds to safe off-shore accounts around the world.
Russia, after the fall of the Soviet Union, became a haven for organized crime. Criminals could cross into Russia and be safe from law enforcement, warrants, and arrest. Putin is a godfather, not a leader.
When Germany attacked its neighbors in 1939 to launch World War II to dominate the world, Hitler’s military had been secretly modernized. His forces easily overwhelmed other European nations who were prepared for World War I. Europe was completely at sea when Hitler’s new forces invaded. That is not the situation today. Russia’s economy is not able to support a massive adventure across the European theater. Russia was forced to withdraw from all its client states in 1991 and it has withdrawn from Afghanistan.
Russian foreign policy is more like a thief in the night. Russian tests the backdoors of every house in the neighborhood. Russia only enters unguarded back doors. The world is aware of Putin’s ambitions, and the world is prepared for the next war. Putin is not prepared for the power and might of NATO or the United States.
Sanctions are working. The pathetic Russian economy is dissolving before our eyes. The ruble is almost worthless. The Russian markets are crashing. The banks are closed. ATMs do not dispense cash. Putin cannot afford this. The end will not be good for Putin or Russia.