Run, Democrats. You can win.

by | Aug 10, 2015 | 2016 Elections, Editor's Blog | 11 comments

A PPP poll came out last week that should give Democrats a boost and hope. Senator Trudy Wade has an approval rating that’s way underwater. Only 30% approve of the job she’s doing while 54% disapprove. Wade pushed through a bill that redistricted Greensboro against the wishes of the vast majority of people. Nobody, regardless of party, likes political overreach.

In 2014, Brian Turner upset Republican Representative Tim Moffitt for doing essentially the same thing. Moffitt’s district, like Wade’s, should have been safe Republican and 2014 was a GOP wave year. If Turner can win in that environment, then Democrats should be able to win in Senate and House districts across the state in 2016.

Unfortunately, too many Democrats are pushing self-defeating narratives that discourage candidates from running and donors from giving. One storyline says that the state is trending red, that 2008 was a fluke, and that the last three elections cycles prove it. That’s just wrong. The 2014 election should have proven that.

North Carolina was the only state with a GOP-controlled legislature to add Democratic seats last year. Kay Hagen might have lost but she stayed competitive throughout a year when Democratic Senate candidates tanked across the country. Even Thom Tillis’ consultant admitted that ISIS and Ebola (remember that?) turned the tide for Tillis at the end.

The other damaging narrative states that Democrats can’t win in heavily gerrymandered districts. That’s not true either, but it has some validity that the first narrative lacks. It’s true that Democrats can’t win in heavily gerrymandered districts if they wage the same type of campaigns they’ve been running for the last 20 years.

The model for running legislative campaigns promoted by caucus organizations at the state and national level is outdated and suited more to a party in the majority than a party deep in the minority. Democrats have failed to adapt to changing political and social environments. And they’ve failed to use modern communication tools effectively.

The days of sticking candidates in a call room and telling them not to spend any money until the last two months of a campaign should be over. That strategy will never work in a Republican-held district where there are as many Republicans as Democrats and independents make up a quarter or more of the voters. The only way to win in that district is to change the dynamic of the race early enough to attract donors so that there is money to spend in those last two months.

Democratic candidates need to be far more aggressive and learn how to use the tools at their disposal. They need to begin defining Republicans early among the 25% or so of the electorate that is paying attention. They need to exploit GOP missteps and they need to create a public perception that a race is winnable long before the paid communication of television or direct mail begins.

Most Democratic legislative candidates don’t come with fat rolodexes full of phone numbers for wealthy people. And most donors don’t give to campaigns that they don’t believe can win. Right now, partly because of the gerrymandering narrative driven by Democrats and the press, potential donors look at most districts and see red, not blue. Candidates have to change that perception and it doesn’t happen in a vacuum or overnight.

Trudy Wade is not an anomaly. She’s the standard. The GOP legislature has overreached. They’re sending tax dollars to private schools while starving public ones. They’ve cut our university system while raising tuition on students. And in districts across the state, they’ve used authoritarian tactics to undermine local governments.

Most voters don’t know this stuff. It’s up to candidates to tell them. And they need to start telling them early. If they do, they might make non-competitive districts competitive, but it won’t happen if they’re not educating voters now.

So run, Democrats. Take the fight to the Republicans. Let people know what they’ve done to our state and our children. But don’t wait until September next year. Money will follow competitive races. To make these districts competitive, you have to change the dynamics and to do that, you need to start closer to this September than next.

11 Comments

  1. John R martin

    OK North Carolina, Let’s make internet History!! In 2016 Let us see if we can put a Real Citizen, & Retired Marine in the Senate Not a Bought & paid for Politician & remove & Replace Richard Burr the Do-nothing Senator from North Carolina!!! I will be looking for all kinds of help as soon as I figure out how to run against the Money that is running this State & this Country! My name is John R Martin from Newport NC & I approve this Message!!! Semper Fidelis!!!

  2. TC

    Funny to see the party of Mel Watt talking about gerrymandered districts.

  3. Heather Rayburn

    This is so spot on, and I hope Greensboro’s Democratic Party is taking note. You can retire Wade. This is the exact situation we had here in Buncombe County: we had a hostile bully of a representative who did everything he could to hurt our city, including changing our county elections and threatening to change our city elections. His campaign strategy was to try to play the city vs. county angle. (Sound familiar?) Things backfired on him, though, and even his crony in another district took collateral damage from association. Moffitt’s actions were so distasteful that he even turned off county Republicans who didn’t vote for him. (They left his race blank — we know this because that area did vote in a Republican county commissioner.) Here’s the key: we did had an exceptional candidate in Brian Turner. Turner wore out two pairs of sneakers hitting the pavement meeting the public. He’s a people-person and canvassed all over his district. He put together an exceptional campaign team, and he didn’t lack for volunteers as Moffitt’s behavior had so motivated people from all over the county to pitch in and help. Despite the gerrymandering, we turned out the vote. I hope that someone in Wade’s district decides to run — if someone with the kind of charisma and good sense that Brian Turner possesses steps up, she or he can win that seat with enough community support and the right campaign team.

  4. Geoffrey

    Yes, Thomas…perhaps the gop over-reach has pushed the pendulum to the point where it will now swing back.

    Ruth Ginsburg has stated: “The true symbol of the United States is not the eagle, it’s the pendulum — when it swings too far in one direction, it will swing back,”

  5. Chris Telesca

    Don’t forget about party building. Oh wait – that would take control of the money-laundering out of the hands of the consultants and donors. We can’t have that now – can we?

    • WNCGuy

      Chris, your talk is tiresome and …If you don’t think that we have an renewed energy in the party one where both activism and organization are growing as well as increased fundraising then you simply aren’t paying attention.

  6. Bob Geary

    Well said, Thomas.

  7. larry

    Can you say….Chad Barefoot? Add him to the list !

  8. Pam Williamson

    This is 100% right on, Thomas. The “let’s keep our powder dry until 2016” strategy is a losing one. Even though our progressive municipal candidates here in Boone this year do not have serious competition, we are gonna dance like it’s 2016 anyway.

  9. HunterC

    This, a thousand times over.

    Well done, Thomas.

    Also recall that when th lie GOP flipped the Senate in 2010, they ran candidates in all 50 districts.

    Why focus on 4 seats in the House when the damage is being done by the Senate?

    Flip the Senate in 2016!

  10. Norma

    Analysis makes sense. We want optimism (even when connected to a less than stellar brain) in our candidates and the smell of defeat or doubt is as deadly in a candidate as unbridled hubris. Early focus and defining the opposition is essential and cannot be over emphasized.

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