State Senate District 9 – State Sen. Michael Lee (R) vs. Andrew Barnhill (D)

If you want to know which way the political winds are blowing in North Carolina, take a look at what’s going on in New Hanover County, which is almost entirely located within the Ninth Senate District. Representing that district is Republican Michael Lee, who is running for his second full term this November. If Lee falls to his Democratic challenger, that will indicate sweeping losses for Republicans in the General Assembly.

Facing Lee this year is Democrat Andrew Barnhill, considered by some to be a rising star within the party. The young Barnhill, only 28, is a graduate of Duke Divinity School and director of a nonprofit organization. He has proven to be an impressive fundraiser, raising over $100,000 for his Senate bid so far. Barnhill is in favor of expanding Medicaid, repealing HB 2, and bringing more film jobs to the district.

The only problem for Barnhill might be a story from his college days. Classmates allege that on a charity trip to South Africa, Barnhill proceeded to party at a casino and luxury resort. While voters tend to overlook scandals from a candidate’s college days, the recentness of the incident could be problematic.

There are a number of issues here specific to the Wilmington area. As in other tourist areas, HB 2 is controversial and could see a greater backlash than in other parts of the state. Standing up for the film industry is also crucial for both candidates.

Then there’s the Trump effect. Though Trump did very well here in the primary, the general election will be tougher for him. He could lose the support of college-educated moderates, who might go on to vote for downballot Democrats like Barnhill.

As for Republican Michael Lee, he might be a stronger candidate than first meets the eye. Back in 2014, he was elected to his first full term with 55.4% – substantially outperforming Republican Senate candidate Thom Tillis. That was considered to be a competitive race also and the margin surprised everyone in the end. Given this and the district’s slight Republican lean, I’m confident Lee has the edge this time around too.

District Rating: Leans Republican

2014 Result
55.4% Lee
44.6% Redenbaugh

Voter Registration
34.3% Democrat
33.7% Republican
31.5% Unaffiliated

82.8% White
12.0% Black
5.2% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
53.0% Romney
45.8% Obama

2012 Governor
57.4% McCrory
39.5% Dalton

2010 Senate
59.7% Burr
38.0% Marshall

2008 Senate
52.5% Hagan
43.4% Dole

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.