State Sen. Jackson (R) Strongly Favored for Reelection

by | Jun 26, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, NC Senate Races

Senate District 10: Brent Jackson (R) vs. Donald Rains (D)

The 10th Senate district is comprised of Sampson, Duplin, and parts of Johnston County (the parts of Johnston being in the eastern part of the county, and therefore having a lot more tobacco fields than subdivisions). This district, then, is very agricultural, more “old” North Carolina than new.

But in terms of voting habits, the 10th district is representative of part of the change seen in the state over the past couple years. While areas like this used to be Democratic turf, voters in eastern North Carolina increasingly vote Republican up and down the ballot. This is an inelastic, Democrat-at-the-local-level-but-Republican-elsewhere kind of district, and it’s getting harder and harder for Democrats to win here at the state level too. While Sampson and Duplin counties have a large Democratic contingent, it’s increasingly confined to only black voters. To win here, Democrats need to get more support from conservative whites, and that’s a tall order nowadays.

The incumbent is Brent Jackson, of Autryville, a conservative Republican who works in agribusiness and is a good fit for this district. Issues such as agriculture and education feature prominently here. Notably, the district has a 16% Hispanic population, but most of them are farm laborers and not registered to vote.

Hunt Recruit

Despite the increasingly tough odds in this district, Democrats think they have a good candidate: Donald Rains, the Mayor of Princeton. The Princeton in Johnston County, and not the one up North. Mr. Rains was recruited by none other than former governor Jim Hunt himself, who would probably win here if he was on the ballot.

If the district was just Sampson and Duplin, Democrats could be competitive. But the addition of rabidly Republican parts of Johnston County makes this district pretty hostile to Democrats. That’s where Mayor Rains comes in. If he can just reduce some of the bleeding in his home county, then he has an outside shot at victory. But that’s much, much easier said than done.

The problem? As of the last fundraising quarter, Rains has raised only $1,225. That’s not enough to win a seat on the Town Council, let alone a State Senate race. Compare that to Jackson’s mammoth $458,543 and it’s hard to feel good about this race if you’re a Democrat. When you factor in what looks to be a bad year for Democrats nationally, with a corresponding drop in turnout from African American voters, and Rains’ prospects here look cloudy.

jackson rains

(L): Republican State Senator Brent Jackson. (R): Princeton Mayor Donald Rains.

Counties in district: Duplin, Johnston (part), Sampson

District Rating: This district is Likely Republican. One party has a very clear advantage over the other, and this advantage is likely to persist through Election Day. But because of the chance of unexpected things happening over the course of the election cycle, the race cannot be pinned as solid for one party, even though a lopsided result should be expected.

2012 Result
Brent Jackson – 100% (Unopposed)

Voter Registration
44.2% Democrat
34.7% Republican
20.9% Unaffiliated

70.2% White
24.5% Black
5.3% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President

59.7% Romney
39.4% Obama

2012 Governor
60.8% McCrory
37.8% Dalton

2010 Senate
60.5% Burr
38.0% Marshall

2008 Senate
50.6% Dole
47.0% Hagan

Social Media Support
Sen. Brent Jackson – 1,011
Donald Rains – 51

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