If you’ve been following the presidential race lately, you’ve probably seen several pundits speculating that Donald Trump is killing the Republican party. Don’t believe it. Something may be attacking the GOP but it’s not The Donald. It’s the people.
Donald Trump is to the GOP what George Wallace was to the Democrats 50 years ago. Both attracted disaffected white working class people who are getting left behind economically and socially. In the 1960s, race, the Civil Rights Movement, and the Great Society drove the wedge between blue collar whites and the Democratic Party. This year, immigration, stagnant wages and the the shift from a manufacturing to service-based economy are doing it in the Republican Party. Trump supporters are angry for what they believe they’ve lost—job security, pensions, and security in retirement. They blame everybody and they cheer when Trump insults one establishment institution after another.
But Democrats are also in the throes of change. Again, it’s not Bernie, it’s the people. He’s a attracting people who aren’t angry about what they’ve lost but are frustrated with what looks like a bleak future. They’re people who have come out of school with large debt and low paying jobs. They bet on education because everyone told them it was the key to upward mobility. Now, their future looks a lot less optimistic than the one their parents had.
These younger people want more offered to them. They don’t trust corporate America or politicians to give it to them. They want the wholesale change that Bernie Sanders is offering not the incremental change that Hillary Clinton is selling. They want to be optimistic about the future and they want somebody who can give them hope.
Sanders and Trump both appeal to disaffected segments of the electorate but that’s where the similarities end. Trump supporters are angry and blaming people for what they feel has been taken from them. Sanders supporters are more policy-oriented and they want a system, political and economic, that they believe is more fair and offers them a brighter future.
Both groups make up a substantial part of today’s electorate and both will have substantial impacts on their parties. The Sanders supporters are younger and will likely push Democrats to the left over time. The Trump supporters are more reactionary and might abandon the party altogether, sitting out elections or even moving toward the Democrats. Neither group will destroy the parties but they might be forcing a realignment.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Excellent. Hoping that a Bernie victory in Iowa will maximize the political value of your understanding. It’s clear that you welcome change and understand its purpose and value.
Wow, those rose colored glasses sure can have a distorting affect on liberal pundits. You say “these younger people want more offered to them.” Don’t you mean they want more given to them? Heck, when I was just out of school in my 20s I wanted opportunities given to me and resented the wealth and influence of my elders. All young people are impatient and believe they are entitled to what older generations earned through patience and hard work.
Where your forecast is off base is that you ignore the aging process. In 20 years, much of today’s impatient youth will be tomorrow’s productive citizens that command wealth and influence. Those who don’t or can’t prosper will still be whining that the system is unfair and demanding they be given what others have earned. But when all is said and done, I’ll bet our economic and political system in the future will be pretty similar to that of today’s.
Thom, you are usually pretty good at calling it, but not this time. Disaffected Republicans will never, never, never become Democrats – not in the next 25 years – because they blame “the others” out there and see Democrats as being in favor of those others. The Trumpers will either continue to be a thorn in the side of the GOP, split and create their own party, or drive the last nail into the coffin of what was once a party-driven political system. I tend to think it will be the latter given the strong anti-institutional bias in the country at large. I foresee a fluid electorate forming each election cycle around specific issues or candidates, dispersing, and then re-forming into new alliances in the next cycle. This has some positive potential for the reform-minded, but the negative will be the ability of particular issues and candidates to have an outsized influence on elections and problems with long term policy planning. That’s my two cents.
I’m with you,Bob
While I agree with your appraisal, in my opinion, the biggest enemy of the two political parties is the infusion of big money from outside sources such as PACs. Unless we reform campaign finance and repeal Citizens United, both political parties will become irrelevant. Instead, we become an oligarchy, and our citizens can sit home on election day and mourn the loss of our democracy.