North Carolina’s US Senate election in 2022 promises to be one of the most watched races in the country. A map I saw yesterday had the state as one of only two in the nation that is considered a toss-up, the other being Pennsylvania. Democrats need the state if they hope to hold the Senate and exceed the Manchin threshold. Republicans need it if they hope to make Mitch McConnell majority leader again. But before the general election decides those outcomes, the primaries here will get a lot of attention.
On the Democratic side, Cherie Beasley will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee short of some scandal or unfortunate event. Her main opponent, Senator Jeff Jackson, is putting together a strong effort, running a dynamic online game with low-dollar fundraising and a ubiquitous presence on social media. He’s also getting accolades from activists for visiting all 100 counties. However, he faces almost insurmountable demographic obstacles in the Democratic primary given Beasley’s stature in the state.
As I’ve said before, the Democratic primary will be more than 40% African American and more than 60% women. Beasley is an historic candidate. She would be the first African American woman US Senate nominee in North Carolina and she would be the only African American woman in the US Senate if she wins. She brings an impressive resume to the race and has the backing organizations like the EMILY’s List and the Congressional Black Caucus. With more than two people in the race, she only needs 30% of the vote to win without a runoff. It’s hard to imagine anything other than a solid Beasley victory next March.
The Republican Primary is a different story. A former governor, a former Member of Congress, and a sitting Member of Congress are about go down a very bloody trail. Pat McCrory may not be the brightest bulb in the box, but he fits the mold of Senator Richard Burr. He’s a go-along-to-get-along guy who has never thought too deeply about much of anything. He’s more narcissistic than Burr, but he’s a candidate the old GOP establishment can rally around. Burr called him the only candidate who can win the general election.
Ted Budd is the Trump choice. The former president came to the state earlier this month to anoint Budd among the faithful. His standing in polls immediately shot up. Still, Budd is relatively unknown in the state. He’s had an unremarkable career in Congress and had no real political experience before he lucked into his seat. He will have to prove that he can put together a campaign and survive a tough fight.
Finally, Mark Walker had his district taken from him in a redistricting, possibly as retribution for defeating Phil Berger, Jr., in the primary that led to his tenure in Congress. Walker almost immediately began campaigning for the Senate seat and tried to define himself in the Trumpiest terms. It clearly didn’t work since Trump dissed him for Budd. As an evangelical preacher, though, he might be able to cut through if the former president doesn’t get too involved. And who knows, Trump might change his mind. Loyalty has never been his strong suit.
The primary will take more shape in the fall and winter, but, right now, it looks like McCrory needs to solidify Republicans who are uneasy with the Trump phenomenon and hope that Budd and Walker split the social conservatives and evangelicals who worship the former president. There may not be enough of those conservatives out there, especially in what will almost certainly be a low-turnout affair. Budd, for his part, needs to turn that Trump endorsement into a sustainable campaign that becomes juggernaut. Walker’s path is difficult and he’s getting put into a position where somebody needs to falter in order for him to emerge victorious. I could see the race getting split three ways with some fourth or fifth tier candidates syphoning off enough votes to keep everybody under 30% and throwing the nomination into runoff.
North Carolina will continue its tradition of keeping the nation’s attention on us during the 2022 election cycle. Democrats will almost certainly have an historic nominee in Cherie Beasley and the national money will flow freely. The excitement among African Americans and women will be palpable. On the GOP side, a bloody primary will leave one candidate trying to unite the party. A Trumpist could alienate enough swing voters to throw the election to the Democrats, but a McCrory candidacy could turn off enough Trump types to hurt Republican turnout. It will be a fascinating year again.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Mr. Mills seems to have taken a dislike to Jeff Jackson as a U.S. Senate candidate from the time that Jackson announced and perhaps before,. After five months of campaigning by Jackson, Mills dismisses his candidacy with the declaration that Justice Cherie Beasley has an insurmountable advantage based on race. What a reversal from past years when race was also an insurmountable factor in the opposite direction.
Mills assertion that Beasley is almost anointed is based upon the premise that black voters will support Beasley en bloc, with the parallel assumption that the majority of white voters will be more choosy, discriminating in the classic sense, deciding between Beasley and Jackson on their merits. This assumption is an insult to the black voters of our state. If race is to continue as the dominant factor in our elections, it is likely to cut both ways. Black and white voters are equally likely to vote based on race and equally like to vote based on the merit of the candidate.
North Carolina is fortunate in having two deserving candidates in Jeff Jackson and Cherie Beasley. The state can only lose if a Republican should win.