Thom Tillis sure makes some silly arguments. He’s quoted as saying he’s not the GOP establishment candidate. That’s ridiculous. He’s the Speaker of the North Carolina House and he’s endorsed by the Republican leadership in Washington. He can’t get any more establishment than that. Tillis is trying to appease the Tea Partiers who will make up a substantial portion the Republican primary electorate. Telling them lies, though, is not going to earn him any votes. It’s just reinforcing their perception that he has no core values. Tillis needs desperately to win the primary outright in May but he’s stalled. After more than $1 million in advertising supporting him, he can’t get above 30%. An American Crossroads poll has him at 27% and two have SurveyUSA polls released at the end of March have him at 28% and 23% and a PPP poll has him at 17%. Republican primary voters know who he is and they are still not sold. Instead, they are looking for an alternative. In this environment, Mark Harris and Greg Brannon are going up with ads. Harris has $300,000 in television. It’s not enough to get much punch but if he can pile some money onto it in the remaining weeks, he might get the traction he needs. Brannon is stuck at about 15%, with his die hard ideologues sticking by their man. He picked up the Tea Party Patriot endorsement this week despite legal troubles so his support seems pretty solid. So the state of the race now is Brannon is stalled in the teens and Tillis is stalled in the mid-twenties. Mark Harris seems to be getting a little bit of momentum and has room for growth. His numbers are low because people don’t know him. Heather Grant will likely grab 10% to 12% of the vote just by being the only woman in the group. If Harris, Grant and Brannon combine for more than 48% of the vote, the race will probably go to a runoff since the other four lesser candidates combined can likely get to at least 12% and probably 15%. If Tillis wants to avoid that runoff, he better find a better line than, “I’m not the establishment candidate.”
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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