The government shutdown this weekend has everybody pointing fingers. Democrats blame Republicans and Donald Trump. Republicans claim Democrats put the needs of people who aren’t even citizens above the needs of those who are.
A series of polls left plenty of spin for both sides. One poll said that almost half (48%) blamed Trump and the Republicans while only 28% blamed Democrats. Another said that 31% blamed Democrats, 26% blamed Republicans and only 21% blamed Donald Trump. So, the conservative Washington Examiner ran with the headline, “Plurality of Americans would blame Democrats for shutdown.”
Another poll showed that by a margin of 41% to 35% Americans would blame Republicans. That poll also showed the country evenly divided over whether shutting down government over DACA was worth it, but only 35% of independents say it’s worth it while 43% say it’s not. So who knows?
In the end, the shutdown may not carry much political risk to either side. In October 2013, Republicans got blamed for the government shutdown, but won big a year later in November 2014. By next November, few of the voters will even remember the angst playing out in Washington today.
More important than the shutdown is the shift in voter attitudes over the past month or so. At the end of 2017, most generic ballots gave Democrats a double digit lead among registered voters. Two polls last week show that advantage has narrowed considerably. A CNN poll show Democrats with just a five point lead and an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has it at six. These numbers may be outliers or just a blip but they’re certainly worth watching.
The GOP tax bill and the economy are probably driving the better numbers for Republicans. The tax bill makes the GOP look more competent than they did through much of 2017, even if the bill itself isn’t very popular. The economy is rebounding and consumers are feeling more confident, unemployment is low and wages are finally beginning to increase. Democrats point to polls that show most voters credit Obama for the good news, but that won’t matter much in November. The party in power will get credit.
However, Trump is still a drag on the GOP. While his approval rating is approaching 40%, pundits say it needs to be at least 44% for Republicans to hold the House. Given his proclivity for controversy, that might be a stretch.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
But the ABC poll out today shows Trump approval rating as still badly underwater by 20 points (38 to 58), and the Dems’ generic support still besting the GOP by double digits (11 points).
The economy is clearly the one factor that is keeping Trump’s approval rating as high as it is. The smallest of signs that the economic bubble might deflate will bring Trump’s—and the GOP’s—support levels down dramatically.