If the early vote percentages continue, the make up of the electorate will look much more like 2012 than 2010. The raw vote, though looks more like 2010 so far. The year is different because of the shortened voting period, though as many people have voted in the first six days of early vote this year as voted in the first 12 days in 2010.
At this point in the 2010 cycle, 455,581 people had voted. Democrats held a seven point advantage and unaffiliated voters made up only 17% of those voting. African-Americans were 19% of the early voters. Women made up 52%.
In contrast, in 2012, 1,482,901 people had voted and Democrats held a seventeen point margin. African-Americans made up 29% of those who had voted at that point. Women made up 56% of them.
This year, 461,236 have voted, roughly the same number that voted in 2010. But like 2012, Democrats hold a 17% lead and unaffiliated voters make up 20% of the voters. African-Americans make 25% of the voters and “other” races make up more than 3% compared to 1% in 2012. Women make up 53% of the early voters.
There is good news in these numbers for both parties. The year is certainly not going to be a Republican wave year in North Carolina. It’s shaping up to be something between 2010 and 2012, both of which were good years for Republicans.
For Democrats, the electorate will almost certainly have more African-Americans than in 2010 and the 3% that are listed as “other” may mean that Hispanic voters are starting to have an impact. The Unaffiliated voters skew slightly younger than the voting population as a whole indicating that they may be targets of the Democrats’ GOTV effort. Of the people who have voted this year but didn’t vote in 2010, 47% are Democrats, only 26% are Republicans.
Republicans are probably glad that the women’s vote is down from 2012 and that there are fewer African-American voters. The electorate also skews older. In 2012, the average age of voters at this point was 54 and this year it’s 61. In addition, voters under 45 years old are only making up 15% of the electorate. If polls are accurate, those numbers should be encouraging to the GOP.
Going forward, Democrats need to hold their edge and go into Election Day with a party advantage above 15%. They also need to hope for a surge in younger voters. So far, folks under 30 aren’t making much impact. They trail the 2010 numbers and have nothing like the 2012 surge that kept the average age at only 54.
Republicans need to close the party registration gap either during early vote or on Election Day. The Tillis campaign obviously thinks they can still persuade or convert some voters. While Kay Hagan is spending the week mostly with her base, Tillis is bringing in moderate Republicans like John McCain and Lindsay Graham and spending time in eastern North Carolina, the land of the old Jessiecrats.
The reality of North Carolina’s purple hue is on display. Hagan’s biggest liability is the national political environment. Tillis’ is the overreach of the General Assembly. Few people are voting for Tillis or Hagan. They are voting against the larger forces that divide the state. This election is coming down to the wire.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Kay Hagan is toast. Sorry to burst the bubble of her supporters, but she is toast. She is polling in the mid-40s. Incumbent senators simply don’t go from 44% to winning an election. She will peak out at 46% of the vote, maybe 47%, best case scenario. 8 out of 10 of the undecideds will break for Tillis. As to the early voter information, we are missing a lot of data to make these numbers useful. Nonetheless, the most important point the author raises is that the average age of the voters is 61 years old and that under-45s are barely voting. This is not a Democrat-looking electorate. Finally, “unaffiliateds” tend to blow with the wind, and the “wind” this year is anti-President Obama. A lower, older turnout always favors Republicans.
Bart Promise us you’ll visit (via this thread) next Wednesday to either gloat (if Tillis wins) or eat crow (if Tillis loses)?
Depending how things turn out, and given that you seem to be really feeling your personal prescience on the matter, I’ll guess you’ll do the former but not the latter…..
Just one comment on the average age rising to 61 from 54 in 2010. It’s been 6 years since the 2010 election which almost mirrors the increase in average age. Not exactly sure what this means, but it’s an interesting correlation.
IMO, you are right on in your analysis, Thomas. Gonna be a nail-biter on Tuesday (with re: to Hagan-Tillis and the maintenance of the GOP numbers in the NCGA).