Spotlight on Schaffer

by | Apr 27, 2015 | Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC House Races, NCGA | 2 comments

This has been an eventful month for Rep. Jacqueline Schaffer, Republican from Mecklenburg County. Though first elected to the General Assembly back in 2012, she’s maintained a low profile in the State House – until recently. Of late, the GOP has turned to her to help advance contentious socially conservative legislation. She helped sponsor North Carolina’s version of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act.

Contrary to the fears of progressives, RFRA is dead as a doornail. But it does appear Schaffer will be more successful with her other bill, which would mandate a 72-hour waiting period for women seeking abortions. This venture has brought Schaffer national attention, with Blue Nation Review insinuating that she had referred to women as real estate. “What This NC State Rep Said About Women’s Bodies is Beyond Twisted!” outrages the headline. Put simply, when liberals say that Republicans are “obsessed” with social issues, they hold up legislators like Rep. Schaffer as proof.

Not all Republicans are in the mold of Ms. Schaffer, however. In particular: those who live in the affluent Charlotte suburbs, an area which Schaffer represents. Already rumors are swirling that the representative might receive a primary challenge from Tim Morgan, who serves on the Charlotte-Mecklenburg School Board. Morgan knows about the speculation but has declined to address it, saying that he’s 100% focused on the CMS budget, which should be a major red flag.

In the past, Mecklenburg County has seen a number of skirmises between social conservatives and the corporate wing of the Republican Party, and it’s looking like there’ll be another one on the horizon. Schaffer represents some of the same areas as County Commissioner Bill James, an outspoken social conservative. James frustrated the moderates, and he just narrowly emerged unscathed from a primary challenge back in 2012.

If Schaffer gets a primary, she should hope for a result like Bill James’s instead of a replay of what happened to John Rhodes, who represented a district in the northern Mecklenburg suburbs. While the boisterous Rhodes had a strong following among social conservatives, business Republicans wanted a representative who would be more “effective.” Rhodes was buried in campaign spending and was defeated in a landslide by Thom Tillis, who of course went on to be Speaker of the North Carolina House and a U.S. Senator.

The takeaway: anyone who thinks that the most strident social conservatives are the ones running things in the legislature is kidding themselves. While the Tea Party has hammered away at the establishment wing of the GOP, the business Republicans are making a comeback – and getting increasingly aggressive about asserting their authority.

2 Comments

  1. Dan R

    I used to live in 105 and have family who still do. Lots of young families with children. Lots of two earner families. Many transplants from other parts of the country. Not a hotbed of fundamentalist wackos. These are folks who are more concerned with quality of schools and property taxes and earning a living. This is not a district that is overly friendly to a fringe social conservative.

    Schaffer won the Republican primary in 2012 and hasn’t faced an opponent since then.

    The problem here is that the high probability is that the only way to beat her is in a Republican primary. And thus the difficulty. Regular people don’t vote in primaries in great numbers. Religious wackos and anti-gay haters and other assorted malcontents do.

    The Republican who ran against Bill James was a qualified. non-crazy, conservative guy who would have well represented that district. He got 48% of the vote in the primary. Lots of normal Republicans were very unhappy to be represented by a loudmouthed crackpot like James, but the supporters of loudmouthed crackpottery showed up in greater numbers to renominate James.

    I suspect that a challenger to Schaffer in the Republican primary in 2016 will have a similar uphill climb.

    One might look at this district though and wonder if the right Democrat couldn’t make it competitive. In 2012, the same year Schaffer was first elected (running unopposed in the general), the 9th Congressional District was an open seat. The Democrat in that race, Jennifer Roberts, drew 45% of the vote.She was very competitive in the precincts that comprise the 105th. She carried 148 (the largest precinct in the 105th) by a handful of votes and made a couple others very close.

    It is not ridiculous to think that, especially in a presidential year, a Democrat speaking to the issues that the regular folks in that district care about might have a shot at winning. Especially if Schaffer keeps going high profile on a right wing social conservative agenda that is out of step with so many of the voters there.

    This is the type of district that Democrats need to contest. Yes, gerrymandering insures Republicans a majority. But they are holding districts by default that might be flipped because Democrats are ceding the field to them. Mecklenburg is fertile ground for pickups.

    A guy like Jeter understands his district (92nd) and avoids the full on Republican nutzery. Yet his Democratic opponent drew 45% last year in what was a strong Republican year. If Schaffer keeps going with the full Pat Robertson, Regent University agenda she needs to have a Democratic challenger because it will be a winnable race.

  2. Wacko Bird a gauche

    Very insightful post. Wacko Bird respects your extensive knowledge. Thanks for sharing.

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