The Kavanaugh fight exposed the bitter division in the country and better defined the GOP, both for those who traditionally have supported the party and those who oppose it. In polls across the country, Republicans are coming home. They’re solidifying their support in rural areas and among their base. In US Senate races across the country, the GOP seems to be turning back challenges and about to put an end Heidi Heitcamp’s career in North Dakota.
However, in suburban Congressional districts, educated women are fleeing the party. A CNN poll shows the generic Congressional ballot now favors Democrats by 14 points. Among women, the divide is almost 30 points. Democrats still look like they’re on track to take back the US House.
In North Carolina, a Survey USA poll done for Spectrum News still shows a tough environment for Republicans. Voters favor Democrats in both generic legislative and Congressional ballots by five points. In urban areas, voters support Democrats by almost 40 points. In rural areas they support Republicans by twelve. The suburban voters are evenly split. Those numbers indicate Republicans in our urban counties are probably in trouble.
Donald Trump’s favorability rating is underwater by eight points while Roy Cooper’s rating positive by 30 points. The legislature has a positive approval rating by seven points and, while more people think the country is heading in the wrong than right, they believe the state is heading in the right direction. That should give the Republican majority a bit of comfort.
The poll doesn’t test enthusiasm and that’s the single biggest factor in how well Democrats do in November. North Carolina has a Blue Moon election and turnout is likely to be less than other midterm elections. The party who puts people in the polls will win.
Democrats have been more fired up than Republicans. GOP analysts hope that the Kavanaugh hearings changed that. I suspect it only changed it for a moment. Americans’ attention spans have become incredibly short. With hurricane Michael heading into the state today, another round of flooding will leave the Kavanaugh hearings a distant memory. Democrats won’t waver in their two year thirst for revenge at the ballot box. Less engaged Republican voters will look back at the Kavanaugh appointment as confirmation that they’re firmly entrenched in power. Nothing to get too excited about.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >