Rand Paul was in North Carolina stumping for Thom Tillis and Karl Rove’s group, Crossroads GPS, is running Obamacare ads again. Obviously, Tillis has not secured his base. The Tea Party is still mad at him and, as one conservative commentator on twitter wrote, “The TP could stay home or vote Haugh or write in because they’re mad Tillis won the primary.”
Rand Paul has his own agenda of course. He’s down here to court voters in anticipation of a presidential primary that will start in earnest the Wednesday after Election Day. He also went to an event with Rep. Walter Jones, Jr., in eastern North Carolina. Like Paul, Jones often finds himself on the outs with the party establishment that so heavily backed Tillis.
As for Obamacare, that’s an issue that’s not on the minds of most North Carolinians but still fires up the Tea Partiers who believe it’s just another socialist program bringing the country to it’s knees. Crossroads is putting $5 million behind the buy because if they can’t get the Tea Party to vote for Tillis, maybe they get them to vote against Obamacare.
Less than five weeks out, that’s not where a challenger wants to be. Tillis needs to have an army champing at the bit to go to the polls. Instead, he’s begging and cajoling his base. He’s saying, “See? This guy likes me and you like him.” and “At least I’m not Obamacare.”
On the other side, Democrats are putting the base to work. They lead the race in mail-in absentee ballots, a form of voting usually dominated by Republicans. And the number of ballots requested is up significantly from 2010, indicating a higher turnout this year, usually a good sign for Democrats.
The polls have been remarkably steady for the past month. Hagan appears to have a low, single-digit lead over Tillis. Democrats in the state are itching to go to the polls and express their anger at the legislature. The Republican base is still trying to bring itself to vote for Tillis.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
I sense many are now realizing the benefits of the ACA. Fact is it’s working. And Tillis’ involvement in preventing NC from establishing its own Exchange and refusing to expand Medicaid is also coming into focus.
I think you overlooking what can happen in the remaining debates. A gaff by Hagan and/or another small slip by Tillis (like misaddressing his opponent or implying that a woman may not be good at math) can one of them into a solid/wide leader going into election day.
Don’t worry, Mick. I’ll cover debates soon.