Evidence is growing that Republicans will face a reckoning in November. The latest comes from West Virginia, a state Trump won by 50 points. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the US Senate race to “Leans Democratic” and moved WV-03 from “Leans Republican” to toss up. That’s a measure of the toxic national political environment the GOP is facing in the midterm.
They will try to turn attention away from Trump to the strength of the economy. Unfortunately, the positive growth and job creation numbers aren’t translating into higher wages or better jobs. Republicans claimed that their massive tax cut for the wealthy would put money into the pockets of the middle class. It didn’t. Instead, wages have fallen and the deficit has exploded.
In North Carolina, the national environment will be the driving factor in the election. With no high profile race at the top of the ticket, Republicans have no distraction or buffer from the erratic leadership of Donald Trump. In particular, Republicans might watch a collapse of their support in suburban, middle class districts.
Democrats here will run on fixing our schools. Republicans have been claiming that they are fixing a broken educational system. However, the system wasn’t broken and their fixes are making things worse. GOP partisans spend a ton of energy on social media claiming that they haven’t cut funding for education, but for families with children in public schools, that’s hard to believe. If they’re not cutting funding to schools, where did the teacher assistants go? Where are the resource officers? Why are teachers in constant need of basic supplies? And why is per pupils spending among the lowest in the nation?
That’s where the suburbs come in. A lot of families move into suburban areas for the schools. Their kids’ education is among their top priorities. When those schools start to suffer, they’re holding the party in power accountable. In North Carolina that would be Republicans. Add the stress of a president like Trump, and it’s a recipe for wholesale rejection of the party in charge.