The new SurveyUSA poll confirms mostly what we already know. Here’s what they found:
-Trump leads Cruz, 41%-27%. I think the margin will be closer than that. The stronger one identifies as a Republican, the less support for Trump. Trump is strongest in “Southern NC” while weakest in Charlotte.
-Hillary beats Bernie, 57%-34%. I think the margin will be larger than that. Interestingly, SurveyUSA notes that Hillary only led by 12 points in the first half of the polling period and by 46 points in the second half. Sanders finds the most support in the Raleigh area, where he only trails by 16 points. Hillary wins blacks and whites, and all age categories except the youngest age cohort.
-Deborah Ross is way ahead in the Senate primary, with 34%. That’s what money will do for you. None of the other candidates break out of single digits. And if somehow Ross failed to win more than 40%, there are no runoffs this year so no worries for her.
-In the gubernatorial primary, Cooper beats Spaulding, 51%-19%. McCrory beats his closest challenger Brawley, 66%-9%.
-Senator Burr is ahead of Greg Brannon, 45%-17%. There’s a chance that Brannon will finish ahead of his 2014 percentage against Tillis. This is a very good year for insurgents.
-The bond looks like it’s going to pass easily. 45% are in favor of it; 18% are against. 36% are unsure, which means the anti-bond groups have a lot of persuading to do.
-On the infamous Charlotte bathroom ordinance, voters are split three ways. 36% say the legislature should override the ordinance, 30% say it should be put to a referendum, and 27% think the ordinance should stay as it is.
So there you have it. Not all of the races will be barnburners next week, but it will be interesting to see the margins some of these candidates win by. It could give an indication of their appeal in a general election.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Polls are nothing more than the mechanism media outlets use to convince the general public what the media wants them to believe. The only polls of any substance are exit polls and those are polls people should be paying much more attention to as they have been no longer corresponding to final vote tabulations – and that is a major red flag where the integrity of our election results are concerned.