It has the feel of a final, desperate push. According the N&O, the GOP “dominated the airways” in the last two weeks of September in an attempt to break through Hagan’s small but stubborn lead. No outside groups except Rove’s Crossroads GPS has air time reserved for Tillis after Tuesday. And yesterday, the Tillis campaign released internal poll numbers–that showed him behind.
First, the ad buy. For months, Hagan has held a small lead over Tillis and a large financial advantage. Republicans realized that if they couldn’t catch up and get ahead soon, that lead would solidify and the Democratic money advantage would put them away in October. They bought big and hoped for traction. It didn’t seem to work.
The NRSC has no ad time in North Carolina after Tuesday but are shifting money from Michigan to other states, not here, an indication that Tillis is no longer a priority. Crossroads will likely stay up here just in case there is a late break in the race or news cycle and to keep Democratic money in North Carolina. If Crossroads goes, the Democratic SuperPacs will start to shift money from NC into other battlegrounds. If it’s just the Hagan and Tillis campaigns buying ads down the stretch, Hagan will bury Tillis with her significantly larger war chest.
Finally, that poll. No campaign releases an internal poll showing its candidate behind in mid-October unless they are desperate. Their spin says that Hagan is struggling with the voters most likely to vote and her lead is made up of those least likely to show up on Election Day. Well, those least likely people are coming and in droves. The mail-in absentee voting shows Democrats outperforming Republicans even though the GOP has traditionally dominated mail-in ballots in North Carolina.
With two debates this week, the GOP will look at a round of polling this weekend to see if Tillis scored any points. If he hasn’t moved the needle, though, the national Republicans will likely start focusing their energies elsewhere. If he can show serious momentum, they may try to bolster him down the stretch.
Short of movement, though, the final three weeks will be painful. The Tillis campaign team will need to find ways to bolster the candidate and volunteers as their resources shrink and enthusiasm wanes. The partisans on twitter will get even more shrill, blaming the media of biased coverage or missing stories. They’ll gnash their teeth and howl about the Democratic lies but they’ll just be talking to themselves. The only cure for their angst is Election Day.
It sucks. I know. I’ve been there.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
What does it say when a consulting firm, being paid to canvass in NC for the Republican party, aggressively seeks volunteers to leave Charlotte area work ($12/hour) to be moved to Alaska (all expenses paid plus a big raise) to canvass there? It tells me that they have been told to write off the Tillis campaign.
Who would have thought six months ago that Hagan would have a lead just because Tillis middle-fingered his Party’s conservative base? Stupidity knows no bounds.