The latest private polling apparently shows George Holding with a huge lead over Renee Ellmers in the battle to be the Republican nominee for the 2nd congressional district. We could see the real fight being the battle for second place: Brannon vs. Ellmers. Greg Brannon has run statewide twice before and has name recognition in the Southern Wake County area. As for Ellmers, she has quite a few hurdles, including:
*Pro-life groups
*Conservative groups like AFP
*General discontent with Ellmers
*Anti-Trump people
The attacks against Holding, on the other hand, are fairly weak. The first is that he voted against the farm bill – which conservatives view as a food stamp bill. The second is Ellmers’ attempt to depict him as a candidate of big money and big lobbyists, “part of the problem in Washington.” The problem with that is that most conservatives see Ellmers as the problem, and if they didn’t think so before, the big money behind the anti-Ellmers effort will convince them otherwise.
That brings us to Greg Brannon. He’s the king of second-place finishes, from his second-place finish to Thom Tillis back in 2014 to his second-place finish to Richard Burr just two months ago. He did pretty well within the borders of the 2nd back in March, so I wouldn’t discount his chances at being the runner-up this time around too.
Maybe I’m wrong, and I’d be shocked, but I don’t think there’s a path to victory for Congresswoman Ellmers. Eventually, there comes a point in a campaign where there’s just too much against you to be successful, and I think we’ve reached that point in the Second District. Ellmers will get swamped on June 7th. At this point, I think she has a better chance of getting third than she does of winning.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
In the long run, if we have to have a gop congressperson, I would rather keep Elmers than Crazy George or forever running Brannon. Elmers is a nut, but she evidently has someone sane working for her who will try to keep her from looking too extremist. Holding is far nuttier than Elmers, an extremist’s extremist. I don’t understand why Brannon keeps running; he seems to run for every gop seat that becomes available. Perhaps he needs a good hobby to get his mind off of trying to run other people’s lives.
Holding isn’t crazy, don’t judge him by the words coming out of his mouth. He knows exactly what to say to his base to keep them happy. He is all about the status quo and power, and he’s good at disguising what he is to those who aren’t paying close attention.
Whose poll says this ? Everything I have heard around the district is that Brannon is leading. Think this article is more wishful thinking that fact based.
This is a “lite” blog at best. There are no facts on the supposed results, nor any mention of the poll’s sponsor, etc. giving it about a 1 on a scale of 10 of anything remotely journalistic. I certainly hope the author has a day job.
And the prize for runner up is? What’s the point?
Right. What difference does 2nd place make if there is no provision for a run off. And the federal courts and the Democrat Party’s redistricting lawsuit are the reason there will be no runoff and why Holding is challenging Elmers. His current district has been redrawn well to the west of his home County.
Good riddance. She’ll be no more missed than my old boy Ollie North.
While the Koch Brothers have publicly claimed that they are withdrawing from the 2016 cycle, it is not true. The Kochs may be unhappy with Trump, but they are pouring a ton of money into North Carolina’s Second Congressional District race. Ellmers was useful to the Republicans when she narrowly defeated seven-term Democrat Bob Etheridge in 2010 with the assistance of the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity. And the new gerrymandered districts gave her a big advantage in 2012 along with support from Sarah Palin.
Ellmers strayed from the party line by considering immigration reform, opposing a constitutional amendment forbidding same-sex marriage and opposing a bill on abortion. The long knives have been pulled against her, and the Koch-backed George Holding has been running non-stop primetime ads against her. She is being primaried by the far right.
The ads are nonsensical and dishonest, but they run back-to-back during the news hour and no one watching is intelligent enough to be insulted by them. The message is that Ellmers isn’t a real conservative, and George Holding is. “She’s way too liberal for North Carolina,” the ad claims. Ellmers is nutty but not nutty enough for the truly insane far right.
The same big money brokers who helped her win her seat with a razor-thin margin of under 2,000 votes in 2010 have turned against her now. The 2nd District is the classic example of the role of money in politics. It isn’t enough to get most of what you want from a politician. The Kochs want you to deliver everything they ever wanted or you are history. Spoiled rich people are very demanding when they buy a Congressman.
So are the Koch brothers buying someone more conservative than Ellmers, who has impressed me with her ability to loudly toe the party line?
Thank you, Jay, for calling it like it is.
The only consolation I can see re: the outcome of this GOP primary is this:
One of two extremely useless, obstructionist, do-nothing-helpful, closed-minded, bought-and-paid-for, at-one-point-or-another-Tea-Party-endorsed, and uber-conservative GOP politicians currently serving in the US House will not be in Congress next year.