Tonight, Democrats take the stage for yet another debate. Twelve candidates will face off on a crowded stage. All but a few are window dressing. The debate tonight is really to see if anyone can score points on Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden.

Biden entered the race late but immediately became the frontrunner. He’s faced struggles throughout his campaign but his support has remained remarkably steady. His supporters overlooked early gaffes that pundits thought would hurt. After a decade on the national stage, voters are used to Biden sticking his foot in his mouth. They may wince a bit, but they won’t hold his foibles against him.

More recently, Biden has been pushing back against allegations that his son, Hunter, benefitted from Joe’s positions as US Senator and vice president. Investigations don’t find any evidence of corruption, but the relationships Hunter formed look unseemly. He even admits that his father’s standing afforded him opportunities other people would not have. 

That insider access is what could harm Biden if the narrative takes hold. Voters elected Trump because they are tired of the political class benefitting financially from their positions. It will be interesting to see if anyone challenges Biden directly on the charges or the perceptions.

Warren is the ascendant candidate right now. She’s taken over Biden’s role as the happy warrior. She’s upbeat while combative. In recent days, she’s taken on Trump, anti-LGBTQ sentiment and Facebook. She’s becoming an anti-establishment candidate demanding change in the political culture in addition to political policies. Her populist cred could build support among voters who couldn’t bring themselves to support Hillary Clinton but didn’t like Trump, either. 

Centrist candidates like Buttigieg and Klobuchar will go after her for policies that they believe fall outside of the mainstream. However, in a Democratic primary, those positions are ones of degree. Voters are generally supportive the concepts even if they’re less enamored with the details. For instance, her Medicare for All might not be a winner in a general election, but the idea that everyone deserve health care is now solidly part of the Democratic DNA. 

The rest of the stage will be trying to catch up with Biden and Warren. Bernie’s recent heart attack will probably effectively end his candidacy. Kamala Harris has never really connected with voters and has watched her support shrink in favor of Warren. Cory Booker and Julian Castro both consistently put in strong debate performances but never get any traction in the weeks following the debate. Beto has taken to making outlandish comments in an attempt to get some air time. Most voters don’t like his proposals like stripping nonprofit status from churches that don’t recognize gay marriage. Amy Klobuchar is another candidate with great Midwest credentials who just can’t seem to make headway in building support. Tom Steyer will continue to wave his billions to get people to look at him but he’s not going anywhere. Tulsi Gabbard will try to look serious and outraged while Andrew Yang will provide the most entertainment and might even present some worthy ideas. 

Overall, the night will probably long and relatively boring. The multitude of candidates benefits the frontrunners since nobody else will be able to get enough time to gain traction or a cohesive narrative.