(Full disclosure: I’m working with the McNeill campaign.)
The Congressional battlefield is expanding in North Carolina. The DCCC has added two races to its Majority Makers list. These races are in Republican held districts that Democrats need to reach a majority in Congress. Both NC-02 and NC-08 made the list.
In NC-08, Frank McNeill is putting together a solid campaign to challenge incumbent Republican Richard Hudson. They’ve attracted the attention of a group called WinDem that supports Congressional races that work with down ballot campaigns to put together strong coordinated efforts that use modern technology to drive their campaign. In a district like NC-08, it’s a smart bet.
NC-08 is a diverse district that stretches from Concord to Fayetteville, with a bunch of small towns in between. There’s very little coherency in this gerrymandered district. Cabarrus and Rowan Counties in the west are tied economically to Charlotte and the I-85 corridor. Fayetteville and Hoke are dependent on Fort Bragg. Moore County is the land of northern retirees and transplants. And Montgomery and Stanly Counties are still trying to recover from bad trade deals. The communities don’t share many economic or cultural similarities.
The McNeill campaign is facing the challenge by working closely with local candidates to build a presence in each area. It’s a smart move. The district falls in three media markets, including Charlotte and Raleigh, the two most expensive in the state. He can’t compete with Hudson for television dollars but in this Blue Moon election, local races will do as much to drive turnout and interest as Congressional campaigns.
If McNeill’s campaign sounds like an old fashioned operation, that’s because in a lot of ways it is. They are using the tools available in the digital age to build communities among voters where they live. They’re adapting to their political environment. Instead of trying to reach the entire diverse district with a single message, they’re localizing the race. If you’re looking for a cutting edge race that combines technology and grassroots campaigning, this is the one.
The other race on the radar is Linda Coleman’s battle with Republican incumbent George Holding in NC-02. The race was the second closest Congressional race in 2016 and it’s caught the attention of third party groups, too. An independent expenditure group, North Carolinians for a Fair Economy, is already attacking Holding, who is also on the air with television ads attacking Coleman. The ads reflect the efficiency of the district which all falls within the Raleigh television market.
The road to a Democratic majority runs through North Carolina. Dan McCready in NC-09 and Kathy Manning in NC-13 have been on the radar screen. Now, add Frank McNeill and Linda Coleman to the list. Just follow Tobacco Road.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
“Holding isn’t especially popular in the district — even among Republicans.”
Heh heh, isn’t that the truth. However, you’re referring to Republicans that pay attention to politics and most don’t, more critically, right-leaning Unaffiliateds don’t either. The first problem here is that the wrong Dem won the primary, and the second is that assuming she wins Wake, it won’t be by enough margin to overcome the surrounding counties , particularly Franklin and Johnston, which will solidly deliver for Holding.
Wow, defeating both Holding and Hudson this November seems highly problematic. Do the Dems really believe a liberal candidate who lost in the last two statewide races can win in a strongly conservative/Republican district. Good luck with that.
And one would think Mr. Mills’ optimism in District 8 would be tempered after his disappointing big loss there in 2016. This is another conservative/Republican district and it will take a huge blue wave for any Democrat to win here. Such optimistic scenarios seem designed more to gin up the base and bolster Dem turnout for state legislative races where they have a real shot at ending the GOP’s veto-proof majority in both the state House and Senate.
Democrats will likely gain only one Congressional seat this fall in NC–the ninth district where the the incumbent lost to a far right minister in the Republican primary.
One race that seems to be ignored District 07 with Dr. Kyle Horton going against Rep Rouzer. We feel the Dr. has an excellent chance against Rouzer who supports off shore drilling , fracking and most of the terrible programs offered by Trump.
Luther Jones is right. Dr Horton has put together a strong grassroots campaign, holding town halls in every corner of the district. She is solid progressive, whose emphasis on protecting the environment, making healthcare a right and building an economy that works for all, stands in sharp contrast to the incumbent, whose main accomplishment in his 4 years in office is a farm bill that screws local farmers. She is a doctor in an election cycle where healthcare is a major concern and a strong woman in what will be the Year of Women Candidates. It’s time to add D-07 to the list of seats that can be flipped!
Glad to see that the importance of Linda Coleman’s race against George Holding is being recognized.
She is an ideal candidate who just needs the dollars to help her win!
Holding’s last 2 challengers were very solid candidates as well, but woefully underfunded and totally ignored by outside groups. And NC02 may have been the second closest race in 2016, but it was still a double digit win for the incumbent. Holding isn’t especially popular in the district — even among Republicans. The old Ellmers contingent would have voted for the challenger last time around if he’d had the exposure and the dollars to reach them. They were incensed that Holding was running in Ellmers’ district when he didn’t even live in it. (A technical truth only, since most of his old district was drawn into the new NC02, and the distance between him and the boundary was measured in feet, not miles.)
Coleman’s big problem will be the mystifying failure to submit her financial disclosure forms on time. How that happened will not matter, even if it is an honest — and innocent — oversight on the part of her campaign. All that is necessary for Holding to keep his seat is for his base to have even a suggestion of an excuse to pass on his challenger. Given even a crumb of justification they’ll be able to justify to themselves that as worthless as he is, he’s still better than _____. Because ______. And the fact that he can drop a million dollar ad buy on her asking how it is that she didn’t turn in her paperwork on time, and it’s game over. I’ve had Holding follow me form the old 13th to the new 2nd, and watched him dispatch 3 credible challengers across the 2 districts. And he now has the benefit of incumbency, despite the fact that his career in the House has been mostly an exercise in nothingness. He’s got virtually nothing to show for his 3 terms in Congress, except a talent for failing upwards.