The Republican base has a strange, love-hate relationship with their man, George W. Bush. They love his macho attitude, his faith, and his regular-guy persona. They love how he stuck to his principles, even if they made him very unpopular. Most of all, they remember he was president on September 11th and that his administration kept America safe. The polls confirm that Republicans love George W. Bush. When they answer these surveys, they’re reminded of the things they love about Dubya. No wonder he has a 71-10 approval rating. Miss him yet? More like, make him dictator for life.
On a subconscious level though, Republicans recoil at a repeat of Bush’s presidency. They see him as a guy who blew it – or worse, someone who never shared their interests in the first place. Control of all three branches of government, and what did conservatives get? Massive spending, a war in Iraq, an aborted plan to bring about amnesty for illegal immigrants, an economic catastrophe, and ultimately – Barack Obama.
Perhaps that’s why GOP voters appear so resistant to Jeb Bush. They look at him and see everything they (subconsciously) didn’t like about George W. They see him as a member of the ruling class, a guy who has no interest in changing Washington. Jeb presents himself as a good conservative executive, but that’s not what the primary voters want. They want a Donald Trump or a Ted Cruz or a Ben Carson, someone who is going to completely turn DC on its head. They’re also suspicious that Jeb will push for immigration “reform” which they take as code for amnesty. Then there’s Common Core and a whole host of other issues where he’s not in tune with the base.
In short: Jeb has nothing going for him, except money. So, why not play up the Bush connection on the campaign trail? It’s no coincidence that his biggest applause line in the last debate was a reference to how his brother kept America safe. It’s not a guarantee, but if voters start thinking of George W. whenever they see Jeb, then maybe, just maybe they’ll overlook his faults.
It looks like strategists are coming around to this line of thinking. They’re thinking of having Dubya play a bigger role in South Carolina, where the primary electorate will be heavily evangelical. In some ways, this is a desperation move. Jeb probably can’t survive without an assist from his older brother. Jeb is just too cerebral, his rhetoric too moderate-sounding, and frankly he’s not a good as a politician as Dubya.
One thing’s for sure: the best indication for how a campaign is going to play out is how that campaign has performed in the past. It’s clear then that Jeb needs to shake things up and try something different. In the end, it’s best for Jeb to be attacked for being the heir to a political dynasty rather than to get scorched as a low-energy establishment moderate.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
I HAPPEN TO BE POLISH AND I DO KNOW WHAT THE WORD “DUBYA” MEANS. DO ANY OF YOU?
DUBYA = ASS.
There has been no definitive resolution as to how or why 911 happened, just evasions and obfuscations from those who were in charge that day. Sure, we had a truth commission, 444 days after the fact, which had no subpoena powers, was under-funded and the final report was written by an administration insider and confidant of Sec. Of State Rice. The only thing certain to date is that military grade nano-thermite residue was in the dust at ground zero and only the US. Military possess that grade of thermite, no 757 could fit in the hole in the Pentagon and there was no debris in the field in Pennsylvania; but it did usher in the age of perpetual war called the GWOT which the republican neo-cons were chomping at the bit to start.
The only thing Dumbya ever did to keep us safe was not die and leave us with President Vader in the Oval Office. Other than that, I can’t think of a thing he did that made me feel any safer.
Jeb is floundering because he keeps on make idiotic statements as he keeps on trying to pander to both the neo-con base AND the so-called GOP establishment, which is not really possible. You cannot win over both dimwit regressive extremists and center-right voters at the same time, no matter what you say and how you say it.
He can’t attract the Trump cultists (because Trump owns them solidly and they automatically reject any reasonable talk) and he can’t win the more moderate and brighter GOP’ers if he continues to make such stupid statements like “Stuff happens” (in reaction to the Oregon shooting) or that Obamacare isn’t necessary because of the Apple Watch.
Identifying with his brother’s and father’s GOP policies won’t work either because their records are painted with a kind of conservatism that no long drives the party.
Interesting post on the anniversary of the day that W and Cheney were finally forced to admit that Saddam Hussein DID NOT have any weapons of mass destruction.
He gave us Dick Cheney–a gift that keeps on giving.
I love it when people talk about W’s “regular guy persona.” His entire life is full of things that Republicans would condemn in a Democrat. Born to a northeastern patrician family, educated at both Yale and Harvard, somehow he’s gotten a reputation for being a “regular” person. Whew! He was actually a spoiled rich kid fraternity brat who was bailed out by his rich dad at every turn. He might possibly go down as the worst president in history.
Of course Bush was a terrible president, but we already
have one who is even worse.
He did not keep America safe; he ignored a memo that specifically warned Bin Laden was determined to strike in the US.
And I f his approval rating is 71-10 (among Republicans, I presume; Wynne isn’t clear, but I doubt it can be that high among the general public), that demonstrates how out of touch with reality that part has become.
As Rumsfeld said in another context: dead-enders.
Correct. The younger brother was explicitly warned of a terrorist attack before 9/11 actually happened. The big government republicans doubled the national deficit, due primarily to significant increases in military spending. What did we get from this increase in federal spending?
People keep saying Bush kept us safe. But 9/11 was the biggest terrorist attack in American history.