The emerging political realignment

by | Nov 22, 2017 | Editor's Blog | 11 comments

The tweet reads, “I just donated to a Democrat for the first time in my life if any of yall want to do so as well. Enough is Enough.” He includes a link to Alabama Democratic Senate nominee Doug Jones’ contribution page. The tweeter is not just any Republican. He’s a veteran operative and strategist who worked for Jeb Bush named Tim Miller.

The sentiment is not remarkable and the action shouldn’t be, but in the hyper-partisan world of 21st century politics, the tweet had over 13,000 retweets and counting. Miller’s response highlights the divide within the GOP over Roy Moore and the highly credible accusations that he pursued relationships with teenage girls when he was a district attorney in his 30s. Miller represents a wing of the GOP that rejects the most tribal instincts of his party. Donald Trump, in contrast, embraces those who believe any Republican is better than a Democrat.  Trump is joined by evangelical leaders like Franklin Graham and James Dobson.

Miller’s action also probably foreshadows the political realignment taking place in the country. The shift won’t happen quickly but over the next few years, more Republicans will leave their party and vote their conscience instead. They won’t embrace the Democratic Party but Democrats will likely benefit.

In response, the Democratic Party will slowly shift to become the dominant centrist party in the country. The cultural reckoning over sexual harassment and abuse will drive women away from a party that’s willing to protect predators. Younger voters of all races may identify as independent but will start shaping the Democratic Party in their image. They will be less ideological, more moderate and more tolerant than the wings that are shaping both parties today. They will provide room for moderate Republicans like Miller who are fleeing the transformation of their party into a white nationalist, male-dominated institution.

The realignment will take place over years, not months, but reminds me of the one after Reagan took power in 1981. It began with Democrats voting for Republicans and then conservative Democrats in office switching parties. By the end of the Reagan presidency, the GOP was the dominant party despite Democrats still controlling Congress. They were led by traditional conservatives of the free-market, small government variety. Today, that branch of the party is in steep decline, eclipsed by the social conservatives and populists they invited into the GOP during the Southern Strategy.

Conservatives who adhere to principles instead of tribal obligations will increasingly find themselves without a home. Over time, they’ll likely find themselves supporting Democrats, building a centrist coalition within the party. Meanwhile, the GOP will continue its transformation into a largely white, rural and working class party. We’ll see a lot of Sturm and Drang before the dust settles, though.

11 Comments

  1. TY THOMPSON

    “highly credible accusations ”

    This meme keeps coming up in print media a lot. I’d kinda like to know what makes these accusations credible. After all, that’s all they are…accusations. And as more and more accusers come forward, credibility is strained because once one goes through a NEXIS search, not a hint of these tales appears out there. At least the Franken case has photographic substantiation.

    • Russ Becker

      Over the last 30 years, I have represented many criminal defendants who were accused (and most were guilty) of sexual offenses against both children and adult victims. I have also represented many victims and alleged perpetrators of sexual offenses in juvenile court. I have been active in several local non-profit organizations which attempt to stop sexual offenses in our society.

      I coach youth soccer and basketball. To be allowed to do this, one has to be cleared by a records checkths. With this year’s certification, there was a strong recommendation to take an online course consisting of 8 lessons and an exam, the whole thing required about 2 hours to complete. Although I knew how pedophiles do their evil work, I learned a new term–‘grooming.’ Most serial pedophiles condition the child by taking small steps to get the child to accept his/her physical touching and to teach them to not report the activity. This progresses through several steps and leads finally to a rape of the child. Many of these pedophiles maintain a sexual relationship with their victims for several years.

      Had Ms. Korof alleged that Roy Moore had raped her with no other details, I may have been skeptical. However, she gave a step-by-step detailed account how Moore removed his and her outerwear, leaving them in underwear. He then groped her body through the underclothes and put her hand on his genitals through his underwear. This was the first step in his attempt to ‘groom’ the 14-year-old so she would accept possible later, more aggressive actions. Thankfully, she felt so uneasy about his actions that she was fortunate enough to not be available to him.

      Because of the detailed account Ms. Korof gave, I have no doubt whatsoever that Roy Moore perpetrated what was alleged. Even without sexual penetration, this was the first step of statutory rape.

  2. ecopedagogy

    Thanks Thomas, another brilliant analysis.

    I believe NC will lead the way in rebuilding what’s left of morality (Rev. Barber). Thanks to higher education and the economic brilliance of Dems like Jim Hunt and Terry Sanford, we were the purple southern state, before Virginia took that mantle.

    My concern is the tension between progressives who (rightly) will pull the party to the left, and the new disgruntled Republicans pulling center. We must find common ground and make the Dems a big tent again…

  3. Rod

    What are Sturm and Drang?

    • A.D. Reed

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturm_und_Drang

      Basically it refers to a tearing open of the heart, letting emotions run rampant, loud, and agonizing; the “arrrggghhh” of someone facing unwanted but necessary change.

    • Uncle Grumpy

      Coupl’a chipmunks from northern VA visiting the state for Thanksgiving. 😉

  4. James

    I”m not convinced about this one.
    “The cultural reckoning over sexual harassment and abuse will drive women away from a party that’s willing to protect predators.”

    You would imagine that the antediluvian ideas about women embraced by the GOP that women would have bolted the party long ago. And yet.

  5. Ellen J Jefferies

    The use of the term “populist” in writing about political philosophy is very confusing. The term means nothing specific since it identifies as “supporting whatever people wanr”. Which is what exactly? Does this mean a populist is a rabble rouser, supporting mob hysreria? What?

  6. DB

    Anybody that worked for Jeb Bush is not a R. He is a Rhino and probably a Democrat.
    You know your hero Bill Clinton started this mess. No one took what he did for real.
    And I know the Clinton’s will continue to give us more information on different things.

    • A.D. Reed

      Are you really as ignorant as you appear, DB? The term you want is RINO — a Republican In Name Only — not a Rhino, which refers to a rhinoceros, a large ungulate native to Africa.
      People who work(ed) for Jeb Bush are devout Republicans, who eagerly purged the Florida voter rolls of 275,000 black and Hispanic voters (presumably Democrats) using the lists and software developed by right-wing racist Kris Kobach of Kansas, who is now doing the same thing nationally for your hero, Donald Trump.
      What Bill Clinton did as president was A) fix all the economic harm done to the country by 12 years of Reaganism, including pulling us out of the Reagan-Bush recession of 1991-92, and ending deficits, leading to the first balanced budget and first federal income surpluses since World War II; oversaw the creation of more jobs, and a higher growth rate, than at any time since the early 1960s; passed gun control laws that cut the number of murders in the U.S. for the first time in 20 years … lots of real stuff. He also gave in to your right-wing party on Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, welfare reform, and national healthcare — but that was only because the Democrats in Congress didn’t have the power to pass the legislation they wanted.

      There is no apostrophe in plural words, including proper names.

      Are you a neo-Soviet pro-Putin-Trump troll, or a bot with bad English translation software, or just dim?

      • Ellen J Jefferies

        thank you, A.D.
        Nice to be reminded that in addition to incredibly stupid people there are bots filling comments with nonsense, propaganda, etc

Related Posts

GET UPDATES

Get the latest posts from PoliticsNC delivered right to your inbox!

You have Successfully Subscribed!