The GOP establishment got a win in Iowa

by | Feb 2, 2016 | 2016 Elections, Editor's Blog, Presidential race | 8 comments

The Iowa Caucuses are over and the presidential primaries are officially underway. The results last night gave shape to the GOP race and altered conventional wisdom. On the Democratic side, not much changed.

The winner of the GOP caucus was the Republican establishment. Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump but Marco Rubio came in a close third, giving hope to an establishment that has been battered by the upstarts. Rubio’s concession speech was, instead, a victory speech. He knows that as establishment candidates like Bush, Christie and Kasich drop out, their support is likely to go to him. If he can rally their supporters, he has a good shot at the nomination.

Cruz proved to have a formidable organization. He’ll grab the support of social conservatives like Huckabee, Santorum and Carson as they fall off. That will give him a solid portion of the GOP primary electorate but not enough to necessarily capture the nomination.

Trump seems poised to still win New Hampshire but his time may have finally passed. Many, if not most, pundits predicted that The Donald would come out on top and his concession speech was uncharacteristically humble. The air seemed to let out of the gasbag.

The question is where would Trump’s supporters go if he falters. Some will probably go home, but others may grudgingly go to the establishment candidate before they embrace the social conservatives. The Trump folks want a piece of the American pie and to deny it to people who don’t look like them. Otherwise, they want to be left alone. Cruz and the social conservatives want to impose their version of morality on the country.

On the Democratic side last night, Sanders and Clinton tied. To really change the dynamic of the race, Sanders probably needed an outright victory. He’ll most likely still win New Hampshire but he won’t gain the momentum he needs to compete in places with large minority populations like South Carolina. He’ll need something besides Iowa to change the dynamic of the race.

In the end, I think the race is headed to a Rubio-Clinton match up. In the coming weeks, the GOP establishment candidates will withdraw and line up behind Rubio.  After Trump bows out, sometime around the end of March Madness, a majority of his supporters who stay engaged will move to Rubio, too. Clinton will continue her trajectory, slowly capturing states and delegates until she finally secures the nomination.

8 Comments

  1. Avram Friedman

    Still trying to marginalize Sanders and save Hillary, Tom? You’re even outdoing the mainstream media, most of whom are now admitting that Sanders is to be taken much more seriously than predicted. The history of those who have under-estimated Bernie Sanders is long and littered with people who have succeeded only in marginalizing themselves.

  2. Russell S. Day (@Transcendian)

    As we have seen Hillary Clinton has appropriated much of the Sander’s message. I would say she has learned from the reaction to Sander’s message how to say what his supporters want to believe can be done. Sander’s has been smart to keep it simple. Sander’s downfall will be that he will not learn from Clinton. He has insisted on calling himself a socialist instead of the more palatable “New Deal Democrat”, since his college years.
    His record in the Senate has been stellar from the standpoint of what we expected, thought the Democratic Party stood for.
    His judgement about Iraq, and Bush was correct.
    The only person who could propel Sanders to victory over Clinton, and win against any of the Republicans would be Elizabeth Warren.
    If this election is as important as it feels like it is, as it is made out to be, I hope that Senator Warren will enter the race as his Vice President Running Mate.
    If anyone running for President of the United States has ever really really needed a running mate, it is Bernie Sanders. Were it were, Were Elizabeth Warren to become his running mate now, right now, it would mean he would win.
    If not, his personally, his convictions, all of it will simply fade away.

  3. dberwyn

    I find it interesting that you ‘gloss’ over the fact that fully half the Democrat caucus goers chose ‘not Clinton’ as their choice. In fact they chose a self-avowed Socialist (of the Democratic variety) over her. Thom, that dynamic deserves at least 500 words of its own. How can that be? And, if this were the case between, say, two GOP candidates, would you write that the GOP is evenly split, or in disarray, or conflicted? My guess is yes, but you slide right on by with a ‘he needed an outright victory’ comment. I’d say that Sanders supporters would strongly disagree, and in fact call a tie a win. (As they are doing in the press today) Considering the context of the HRC ascendancy, a tie in Iowa is in fact a loss for her. Drop some ink on that why don’t you?

    • Smills

      Sounds like you need to get your own blog.

  4. Ebrun

    I sure hope you’re right. Republicans can’t do much better than a Rubio-Clinton contest.(Maybe Rubio-Sanders, but that’s not going to happen.)

    But I am afraid you’re writing off Trump way too soon. The Iowa results will make little difference to his supporters and Cruz will crash and burn eventually. Hopefully, Rubio can unite enough conservatives with establishment types to win the nomination. But at this point, Trump still has to be considered the favorite.

    • Maurice Murray III

      For Trump to win, he would have to spend hundreds of million$, and he’s unwilling to do that. Cruz has significantly more in the bank than Marco Amnesty.

  5. Cosmic janitor

    If the race goes to the establishment, Clinton/Rubio, you will get more austerity, more banker criminality, passage of the toxic TPP, increased military spending and war like we’ve not seen since WWII. That’s what the establishment promises all those who can’t think outside the establishment box or refuse to face our stark reality.

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