After Donald Trump’s tremendous victory Tuesday night, the race is headed to South Carolina. Here are a few of my thoughts on that upcoming battle:

-The most recent polls of the state (and there aren’t many) show Donald Trump being in first, with Ted Cruz being close, or not so close, behind. Most political observers expect a bloody Trump-Cruz battle for the top spot.

-All eyes will be on Rubio on Saturday night, when the next debate will take place. He has to put in a solid performance. I expect him to do so. Expectations are so low that as long as he doesn’t repeat himself again, he should be OK. At the same time, Jeb Bush will be at his throat. The problem is that Jeb Bush is not as good a prosecutor as Chris Christie.

-Chris Christie is out of the race. For some reason, a lot of Rubio backers are angry at Christie. That’s like Perry 2012 supporters being angry at the Department of Energy. My guess is that Rubio’s debate flub would’ve happened sooner or later. It’s a good thing for the GOP it happened sooner.

-Rubio still isn’t dead yet. The GOP establishment is tremendously fond of him and his support base is exceptionally devoted (though a little downtrodden after last week). But if he comes in fourth in South Carolina, he’s going nowhere.

-Jeb Bush, on the other hand, might be like Bruce Willis in the Sixth Sense (spoiler alert). New Hampshire was not necessarily a good result for him. OK, maybe a better analogy is that he’s Schrodinger’s Cat … and we won’t know whether’s he alive or dead until we open the South Carolina box. But he needs to place ahead of Rubio, that’s for sure. Then he can vie with Kasich for the “establishment candidate” slot. (See how messy things are right now for said establishment?)

-John Kasich: I just don’t know how he’s going to get the nomination. I’m not seeing a whole lot of Kasichmentum. The media covered Trump and Bernie’s dominating victories and Rubio’s disappointing finish with much more intensity. No doubt the hope is that his fundraising picked up dramatically after his second-place finish.

-Now, for those Republicans in North Carolina who want their vote to matter. With the results in Iowa and New Hampshire, there’s a greater chance that we’ll actually be somewhat important this year. The last point, from High Point, had Trump and Cruz at the top with Rubio a close third. This was before his disastrous debate performance.

-PPP will be polling both states in the Carolinas this weekend. It’ll be interesting to see how the contenders diverge in their support.

3 Comments

  1. Cosmic janitor

    The republicans actually have a good candidate in Kasich, someone this independent could support if Dillery-doe is awarded the nomination by the way-too-suspicious and undemocratic super-delegates of the establishment Democratic Party. Jeb is even more dangerous than Frumpy, and Rubio is a bozo the clown – which means he’ll more than likely get the Republican nomination.

    • MyTurnNC

      Kasich is a great choice for a Trump VP. He could help carry Ohio. He has never criticized Trump. Trump has said he likes him.

      • Maurice Murray III

        Kasich’s super PACs have spent large amounts ridiculing Trump. I agree with the Cosmic Janitor, RobotRubio will likely get the republicon nomination but will come out bloodied against a well organized, well funded former Secretary of State who has far more foreign policy experience than he.

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