The North Carolina governor’s race is the cycle’s marquee race for the Tar Heel State and the most competitive gubernatorial contest in the nation this year.
It is also a battle for the heart and soul of North Carolina. The great Jesse Helms/Jim Hunt Senate race of 1984 was viewed in a similar light, and therefore this governor’s race can be viewed as that election’s sequel. Democrats hope that, to borrow George Will’s adage: “It took 32 years to count the votes, and Hunt won.”
Largely, the race is a referendum on Pat McCrory. Like in all races featuring an incumbent, the challenger stands by and waits for the verdict of the voters. Has the incumbent done a good job, or a bad job? If the latter, the challenger is called in for an interview. If the voters (employers) are impressed, the incumbent gets booted. If not … there’s a difficult decision to be made.
But the race is not just an up-or-down vote on McCrory’s accomplishments. It’s also a referendum on the Republican legislature and the course the state has taken since 2013, the year the state became completely controlled by the GOP. The party has pushed through a largely conservative agenda, dramatically reshaping not only the state’s ideology but also its identity.
McCrory, originally elected to office as a Charlotte moderate, has largely gone along with the General Assembly’s agenda, with a few notable exceptions. McCrory is difficult to categorize politically, and his actions are occasionally unpredictable. While the General Assembly is more ideological and “big picture”, McCrory is generally more pragmatic and detail-oriented.
Regardless of how one views the governor, he has tangible accomplishments to which he can point. While some would dispute his “Carolina Comeback”, the state has seen a dramatic drop in the unemployment rate. The state’s tax code has seen major revisions, and North Carolina is now seen as having a much more friendly business environment. McCrory was also the strongest voice in support of the ConnectNC bond, which was endorsed by the voters last month and will result in billions of dollars to support new infrastructure and improvements for the university system. Supporters say that Governor McCrory and the conservative legislature have enacted a reform agenda that will result in long-term job growth and prosperity and is already seeing results.
If the race was viewed from a purely economic standpoint, the governor would probably have the upper hand. Instead, it’s the conservative legislation passed by the General Assembly and signed into law by the governor that has divided North Carolinians, and has made this such a fascinating race. The legislation has shifted the state’s policies sharply to the right – painful shifts for the well-entrenched progressive forces within the state, as seen by the reactions of the “Moral Monday” movement. Governor McCrory, once seen as a Charlotte moderate, is now allied with cultural conservatives, meaning that his crossover appeal from 2012 has diminished.
Given all that has happened in North Carolina over the last four years, Democrats are energized and determined to take back the Executive Mansion. To do so, they have a strong candidate, longtime Attorney General Roy Cooper. Cooper was seen as having ambitions for higher office for years, but never pulled the trigger. Democrats are optimistic about Cooper’s chances. He fits the profile of the typical successful Democratic gubernatorial candidates of years past – a long career in politics, viewed as a centrist, from Eastern North Carolina.
But in statewide races, the Democrats are not nearly as strong as they used to be. The party organization is still reeling from bitter divides between the establishment and the activists. More importantly, the party can no longer depend on socially conservative ticket-splitters. Instead, the path to victory is increasingly identical to the path to victory for Democrats in presidential races – turning out large numbers of urban liberals and black voters.
As a result, the party has shifted to the left, a vicious cycle which will similarly diminish Cooper’s crossover appeal. McCrory’s campaign team is already on the attack, casting Cooper as an Obama liberal who is at the same time a throwback to failed Democratic policies of the past. While McCrory has to walk a tightrope, so does Cooper. He has to energize progressive voters while keeping conservative Democrats in his corner, which is easier said than done. He has to generate black turnout while not scaring away more conservative whites.
Cooper and the Democrats have a potent issue with which to maintain this balance: education. They charge that McCrory and the General Assembly have short-changed public education and are threatening the futures of North Carolina’s children. They see steep cuts to the university system will hurt job growth and will diminish the quality of life in the Tar Heel State.
McCrory has an ample counter: during his term, teachers saw their first raise in years, with more coming. Families now have more options for education thanks to laws expanding charter schools and making it easier for those with low incomes to afford school vouchers. But education is one of those battlegrounds where Democrats consistently seem to win, so making the election about education could be a winning strategy for Cooper.
The issues defining this election already seemed set in stone, when just two weeks ago the General Assembly passed House Bill 2. The so-called “bathroom bill” makes it illegal for individuals to use any public facility not associated with the sex listed on their birth certificate, but it does other things as well, including ending non-discrimination ordinances tougher than state law and making it impossible for municipalities to enact minimum wage laws. The statutes relating to transgender individuals is more an expression of values than anything else, but it has already generated controversy and has led to multiple companies and individuals boycotting the state for its perceived hostility to LGBT individuals.
The law could help McCrory coalesce the conservative base around his candidacy, while forcing Cooper to take the side of “sexual predators.” At the same time, HB 2 could hurt the state’s economy and the governor’s standing with moderate, suburban voters. Right now, it’s too early to say what will happen or how this will affect the race. Polls show voters oppose the Charlotte bathroom ordinance that sparked the debate but are wary of the law’s economic impact on the state. The law might be revisited during the short session, but the events following its initial passage will no doubt be an issue of debate in the next few months.
Even further complicating things is the presidential race. Republicans could be on the verge of nominating Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. Polls show that if they do, North Carolina could be in play for Democrats. If Hillary Clinton wins the state, McCrory may have a hard time being reelected. The worse a Republican presidential candidate does in November, the worse McCrory will do at the polls. This is, once again, an unknown factor.
So there you have it. On one side, Governor McCrory, who with the General Assembly has transformed North Carolina into a laboratory for conservative policies, for better or for worse. On the other, Roy Cooper – the Tar Heel State’s great hope who can restore the progressive policies that made North Carolina a leader in the South – or, Roy Cooper, a puppet of Barack Obama and the liberal agenda who is intent on turning the clock back and returning to the failed Democratic policies of old.
What can North Carolinians expect over the next few months? In a word: war, and a fight as unrelenting as the Helms/Hunt race. This is a battle for the heart and soul of North Carolina. Both sides know it, and both sides are going to do everything in their power to win the Executive Mansion. The future course of the state depends on it.
Race Rating: Pure Toss-Up
2012 Result
54.6% McCrory
43.2% Dalton
Voter Registration
40.4% Democratic
30.5% Republican
28.6% Unaffiliated
70.4% White
22.3% Black
7.3% Other
Results in Other Elections
2014 Senate
48.8% Tillis
47.3% Hagan
2012 President
50.4% Romney
48.4% Obama
2010 Senate
54.8% Burr
43.1% Marshall
Facebook ‘Likes’
Pat McCrory – 130,011
Roy Cooper – 36,894
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/harold-lloyd/these-things-got-wheels-m_b_9761454.html
What about the folks who no longer can afford a phone because they are unemployed ? Are they left out of the survey of the unemployed?
No doubt the official unemployment rate is just a rough estimate. The household survey obviously misses the homeless. But just about anyone now can get a free or subsidized “Obamaphone.”
McCrory is becoming a Brownback protege, something NC does not need. I look forward to see Roy Cooper enter our Governor’s Mansion in January.
actually Kansas seems to be the laboratory state for conservative policies, but we are well on our way
“On one side, Governor McCrory, who with the General Assembly has transformed North Carolina into a laboratory for conservative policies, for better or for worse.”
For worse.
The conservative policies have been more the product of the GOP-dominated NC General Assembly than of the Governor. Conservatives have veto proof majorities in both chambers and McCrory has little influence. His few vetoes have been over ridden and he is left with the choice to go along or alienate the Republican base. Since the state’s economy is experiencing steady growth under GOP tax cuts and regulatory reform, the Governor is wise to take some of the credit.
The growth is not from tax cuts and regulation reform. The growth would have occurred without them. Tax cuts assumes the money would be used for investments which takes time. There was a surplus of money in the banks after and during the recent rcession, the banks weren’t willing to loan money so that is a bogus argument. I remember Art Pope spouting off about the turn around in the economy before the tax cuts went into effect; they were already creating a spin to justify lowering taxes on the rich.
That seems like an opinion to me. Do you have any data to back that up? Or perhaps you have an advanced degree in Economics and don’t need to refer to data to back up your opinions.
BTW, NC state taxes were lowered on everyone. In 2011, the “temporary” sales tax increase was repealed by the GOP-controlled General Assembly over the veto of Governor Perdue.
For worse.
Yes reported unemployment rate is down but so are unemployment benefits. The length of time one can receive benefits dropped so once a person is no longer receiving benefits is that person no longer considered unemployed? Yes individual income taxes went down but sales taxes increased and so did charges for drivers licenses and license tags, etc. So the tax burden on the poor and lower income folks went up while the tax burden on the rich and wealthy went down ! Yes folks approved the bond issue but how are the bonds to be paid? I was told that the GA set aside funds to pay off debt. So instead of giving teachers and state employees pay raises ( they have had one in the last 8 years or so) excess money will be used to pay off the bonds. It is all how you look at things. But to me things are not so rosy under the republicans !
The official federal unemployment rate is has nothing to do with unemployment compensation. The unemployment rate is based on a household survey in which respondents are asked if anyone in the household is unemployed and looking for a job. It doesn’t matter whether or not that person is receiving unemployment compensation. Those who are unemployed but not actively seeking employment are not included in the unemployment numbers, but are counted in determining the labor participation rate, which is substantially different from the unemployment rate.
I have never seen or heard of a household survey where people were asked anything for the fed. In fact, unless it has been enacted in the last 20 years, I went through a period in the 90s when I was collecting, and from everything I read from then until now stated that unemployment numbers were based on the number of people collecting unemployment insurance. Those whose insurance ran out were dropped from the unemployment rolls, and were no longer counted. Perhaps one who has the misfortune of being unemployed pays more attention to the facts the government wants and uses for their data than one who reads the data.
FYI: From the web site www/bls.gov: (Bureau of Labor Statiistics)
“Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the government uses the number of people collecting unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under state or federal government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.
“Other people think that the government counts every unemployed person each month. To do this, every home in the country would have to be contacted—just as in the population census every 10 years. This procedure would cost way too much and take far too long to produce the data. In addition, people would soon grow tired of having a census taker contact them every month, year after year, to ask about job-related activities.”
“Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information.”
“There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month….”
More info from http://www.bls.gov : General question
“1. What is the Current Population Survey?
The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households conducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In addition to the national unemployment rate, it provides a comprehensive body of data on the labor force, employment, unemployment, the unemployment rate, persons not in the labor force, hours of work, earnings, and other demographic and labor force characteristics.”
That the best you can do? An article that addresses the state’s GDP growth for the 3rd quarter of 2015, that clearly states and shows on a map that its GDP growth was behind that of 13 other states, that uses an arcane measure of GDP growth, and that ends with “an N.C. State University business survey finds entrepreneurship optimism is waning in the Triangle when it comes to jobs.” That’s your best shot?
Oh no, it’s not the best data. Just the latest. The economic reports from the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Labor have consistently shown NC outpacing national and regional averages in employment growth, personal income growth and GDP growth for the past couple of years or longer. You should have been paying attention to some of my previous posts that called attention to those trends.
So, your answer is “yes,” The best you can do is data that 6 months old.
And you should have paid attention when I mentioned that NC’s unemployment rate is worse than the national average, trailing such states as GA, TN, AR, TX, VA and FL.
Democrats seem to win elections when education policy is a battleground? Not so much lately. Remember Kay Hagan’s campaign? Didn’t work so well for her.
“The state has seen a dramatic drop in the unemployment rate,” which mirrors the national and regional reductions in the unemployment rate. With the tutelage of conservative legislators, the governor eliminated the earned income tax credit and the deduction on the first $50,000 of business income, resulting in increased taxes on many.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article12938894.html#storylink=cpy
http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2016/03/08/by-gdp-n-c-had-fastest-growing-large-economy-in.html
“At the same time, HB 2 could hurt the state’s economy ………Right now, it’s too early to say what will happen.” LOL. Understatement much?
Your head’s in the sand, Mr. Wynne. Just how much more economic damage do you need to see before you’ll say that HB 2 has already hurt the state’s economy?
And you conveniently forgot to mention that in just one month between the two most recent SurveyUSA polls —with HB2 happening betwixt them— , the governor’s race has gone from 47-43 McCrory over Cooper, to 47-45 Cooper over McCrory??