Some thoughts on the Senate race to close out the week:
The RCP average right now in the three-way race: 43.8% Hagan, 40.0% Tillis, 5.6% Haugh. If Tillis wins two-thirds of undecided voters, and Haugh keeps his 5.6%, then this becomes a tie race. If Haugh takes only 2% of the vote, and the 2/3rds rule applies to Tillis, then Tillis leads Hagan by 1, just short of a majority of the vote. From there, it’s all about the ground game. (By the way, Haugh will be in the third televised debate with the League of Women voters in Wilmington, on stage with the other two candidates. A real chance to outperform past Libertarian candidates statewide.)
But to win over those undecideds, Tillis is going to have to change the topic from his record as Speaker of the House. This campaign is going to be about who’s worse – Washington or Raleigh – and the fact that we’re hearing so much about Raleigh tells us volumes about who’s winning this race. The hope from the Tillis camp is maybe anger over the General Assembly session will subside by next month, and voters will remember it’s Washington who they’re really angry at. Something like that happened last year, when the General Assembly and Governor McCrory were about as popular as ebola. Then, a couple months later – poof. There was still some discontent, but it got overshadowed by goings-on nationally.
The difference, of course, is that last year the Hagan campaign wasn’t around and spending millions of dollars reminding voters of the sins of the legislature. Eventually, though – if the campaign goes on forever – there will come a point of diminishing returns, like with those ads tying Hagan to Obamacare. Yeah yeah, we know Hagan voted for Obamacare, we’ve moved on. Perhaps voters will move on from the Tillis education attacks too.
But of course, the campaign won’t last forever (thank goodness). It’ll be over next month. The “Tillis hates schoolchildren” message is new and therefore highly relevant. Hagan loves Obama and was the deciding vote for Obamacare? That’s old news. We’ve been hearing it for about a year now. We get it.
So perhaps the best hope for the Tillis camp is that eventually the attacks on public education will stop resonating so strongly. But the Tillis campaign is going to have to do their part as well. They’re going to have to give voters a real reason for why Thom Tillis, not Kay Hagan, should be representing North Carolina in Washington. They’re going to have to find an attack that works, and stick to it.
The U.S. News & World Report has been following this race since Day 1, and for every competitive U.S. Senate race in the country they keep track of who “won” each month. According to them, Hagan won May, June, July, August, and September. So it’s no surprise she’s ahead in the polls overall. To turn things around, Tillis is going to have to win October. That probably starts with winning the debate next Tuesday.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
” Yeah yeah, we know Hagan voted for Obamacare, we’ve moved on. Perhaps voters will move on from the Tillis education attacks too.”
The problem for Tillis – NC is tops on the list of enrollees in ACA; bottom on the list for education spending. He has no message except ACA is awful – tell that to the people who’ve signed up for it.
Any parent knows that Tillis’s education policies are utterly disastrous. And that kind of policy is the kind that gets voters fired up – to vote out those deemed responsible for the disaster. Education matters, just not for the NCGOP, who continually view it as a drain, not an investment.
And what if Tillis gets only half or a third of the undecideds? And what if Haugh gets 6%? Those would swing things Hagan’s way even more so, wouldn’t you say?
Yes, negative attacks get old if they outlive their news worthiness. The attacks on Obamacare and tying Hagan to it jumped the shark a month ago, as more and more information about ACA’s enrollment, premium paying, and demographic coverage comes out, and as it become clearer each passing day that the GOP/TP/Libertarian claim that ACA will wreck the economy ain’t happening (see today’s national news on the low jobless rate).
The problem for Tillis is that voters will have a much harder time moving passed (forgetting) his harsh legacy. They are reminded everyday. If it’s not a news item re: actions/rulings on his voter suppression act (like yesterday’s), it’s one about the lame coal waste remediation law, or one related to the GOP’s 2013 concealed-carry expansion law (like today’s issue on the State Fair), or private school vouchers deemed unconstitutional, or another story about how much money the NCGOP spurned and how many needy people didn’t get health care by the decision not to expand Medicaid.
Wow…you do chase dreams. Unfortunately I think its pretty much done. I suppose the undecided could break the way you would like, but alas I think your hopes are simply a pipe dream. Don’t be surprised if the State House and Senate experience a wave…not the one talking heads in DC see as the illusive GOP wave but a very angry Democratic wave that will reduce the stranglehold on the NC legislature.Doubt a single Republican will hold a seat in the legislature from Wake county. Oh yeah, McCrory is toast in 2016 as well.