Apparently, there’s still talk about a Republican wave in November. At least enough for Nate Cohn of the The New York Times to speculate that there might not be one. I’ve never believed that this is a wave year. There’s been a bunch of hype about historical voting trends, but trends don’t make waves. Anger, fear or exuberance do.
We saw wave elections in three straight cycles–2006, 2008, and 2010. Each was a strong reaction against the government, not simply the demographics of the turnout or an off-year election. Republicans may do well this year, but not because of a wave.
In 2006, Democrats caught a wave. It was based on frustration with the war in Iraq, anger over the Bush administration’s Katrina response and disgust with a series of Republican scandals that culminated with Rep. Mark Foley getting busted sending sexually explicit emails to teenage boys. The outcome of the election was an expression of broad dissatisfaction and anger at the Republican Party. The electorate, though, looked similar to the one that’s expected this year.
In 2008, Democrats caught another wave. This one was fueled as much by Barack Obama’s historic campaign as it was a backlash against Republicans who got blamed for the financial collapse. It was a perfect storm of exuberance for one side and wholesale rejection of the other, but it was an emotional response, not just demographic trends.
Finally, in 2010, Republicans caught the biggest wave of all. The economy was still in the tank and voters were scared and angry. They were feeling more than a little buyer’s remorse toward Obama. They had elected Democrats to end the partisan bickering and fix the economy. Instead, they got a health care program they didn’t understand. It was a throw-the-bums-out mentality and, with two consecutive wave elections, most of the bums were Democrats.
In 2012, we finally saw a status quo election. Obama won as much because Republicans put up a perfect foil as anything he’s done. The electorate was generally grumpy but not so angry that it was willing to bet on wholesale change like they had in the previous three cycles. Consequently, not much changed.
So far, nothing indicates a Republican wave. While Obamacare may not be too popular, it’s only a driving force for those already worked up into a froth over Obama himself. At this point, there’s no real defining issue of the campaign. Senate Democrats would like to make it about the Koch brothers and Senate Republicans want to make it about Harry Reid but those are just the fantasies of DC political hacks who’ve lost touch with the American people.
November may be good to the GOP but it’s not going to be fueled by the emotion that defines a wave. We won’t see a bunch of Democratic seats that should not be competitive suddenly go Republican. Instead, we’ll have a rather status quo election. Maybe the GOP makes enough gains to take the Senate. Maybe not. Regardless, it won’t be a wave.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Are people really predicting a GOP wave? Perhaps it is my demographic cohort – parents of school-age children – but I don’t know ANYONE who’s a big fan of GOP policies – at least here in NC. But perhaps parenthood isolates me from the general public? I am curious to see how voters reward this activist state legislature in the fall.
Dear “someone”…..my once solidly Republican neighbors have taken their GOP bumper stickers off their cars, at least one has officially changed his registration and NONE of them are proud (or even happy) with this iteration of “their” party. This group is an equal opportunity offender…..virtually across the board…..