The price of overreach

by | Mar 24, 2015 | Editor's Blog, NC Politics, NCGA | 3 comments

John Hood has a nice piece on attempts by North Carolina Democrats to change electoral rules back in the 1980s. They were trying to limit the influence of Republican Governor Jim Martin and a group of newly elected Republican legislators. Ultimately, they backed down. Today, he notes, they are glad they did and warns Republicans against overreach in trying to rig elections.

It’s wise advice. The voter suppression laws that Republicans passed may well come back to bite them. Contrary to what many people believe, the Democratic base showed up in 2014 and they are still engaged.

While turnout in 2014 was at historic lows nationally, it was about normal in North Carolina. African-American voters made up almost the same percentage of the electorate as they did in 2012. For three elections in a row, black voters have made up more than 20% of the voters. That will most likely hold true for years to come and Latino voters will make up an increasing percentage of the electorate.

Voter ID laws and other suppression techniques provide a reason for organizing. Minorities and younger voters feel targeted by the laws and no argument about “integrity of elections” is going to change that mindset. Refusing to allow college IDs as valid voter IDs gives college students a huge incentive to go to the polls. African-Americans will vote in self defense to show the GOP that 50 years after Selma, they can’t be denied.

More recently, proposals to redistrict local boards and shift powers of appointment to the legislature are angering voters of all stripes. Last year, Republican Rep. Tim Moffitt paid the price for his overreach. Buncombe County voters sent him packing in the middle of a GOP wave in a safe Republican district. His fellow Republican representative Nathan Ramsay was collateral damage.

In 2016, a year that will almost certainly be better for Democrats, expect to see more of the same. Chad Barefoot and Trudy Wade may engineer legislative annexations of the Wake County Commission and Greensboro City Council, but they should expect the overall share of GOP votes to decline. Their actions will motivate an already engaged Democratic base and will almost certainly sour independents who don’t think too much of big government interference.

3 Comments

  1. Keith

    The legitimate problem for student IDs is they are issued only once, unless lost or destroyed, and usually do not have a date of relevance. Regular issue of these cards combined with a date would make them quite viable in my opinion. On the other hand, new NC voter laws create other obstacles by not letting the students claim residence where they attend school in almost all cases.

  2. River Rat Dem

    I’m pretty sure African-Americans turned out at 2008 levels, not 2012.

  3. LIbby

    The problem is that college students tend to vote liberal and Democratic, so Repubs have to find a way to keep them from voting.

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