The Trump effect in NC-09

by | Jul 13, 2018 | 2018 elections, Editor's Blog | 8 comments

A Civitas poll earlier this week opened eyes because Democrat Dan McCready leads Republican Mark Harris in the open seat in a GOP +7 district. The more significant number, though, is Donald Trump’s favorability. He’s upside down with 43% approving, 49% disapproving. Harris ran a primary wrapping himself around the president and if Trump is in trouble in a district like this one, he’s in trouble across the state. Or at least Republicans on the ballot are.

According to the poll, McCready is crushing Harris in urban areas by 22 points and suburban areas by 13. Harris leads in rural areas by 10 but the district is more than 60% urban suburban. McCready holds a 16 point lead among women, which could reflect the impact of the #MeToo movement. Civitas Executive Director Donald Bryson suggested the lead may be influenced by an article in the paper highlighting Harris’ opinion of the role of women in society. If a single article had that type of influence, the attacks on Harris from the DCCC and affiliated organizations will be brutal, widening that lead substantially.

But maybe the attacks won’t come because they won’t need them. If McCready’s lead continues to increase and his significant financial advantage grows, Republicans might write that district off in a year when they have a lot of incumbents to protect. Harris will likely need to show a big haul in the second quarter to hold the attention of the national GOP players.

Trump’s numbers, though, show the difficulty Republicans face this cycle. In North Carolina, with no US Senate or governor’s race on the ballot, Trump is the de facto top of the ticket. He’s underwater in the district he won by double digits two years ago. The GOP won’t be able to get away from him no matter how hard they try. He’ll be a drag on the ticket up and down the ballot.

Among women, Trump is down 12 points, indicating that #MeToo may be negatively affecting the GOP. Among urban voters, Trump suffers a gaping 25 point deficit. And these urbanites include a lot of country club Republicans. Among registered unaffiliated voters, Trump is down by 13 points with a majority disapproving of him.

Dan McCready has a widening lead over Mark Harris. Before 2010, North Carolina routinely rejected hard right candidates like Mark Harris. Gerrymandering protected them, but the election of Donald Trump may be shifting voters back to their more moderate roots. The poll, though, may have broader implications across the state as unaffiliated voters reject Trump and country club Republicans, especially women, join them.

8 Comments

  1. Eva F. Lee

    Robeson County, NC has perhaps the highest number of “inactive/denied” status voters in North Carolina. Recent 2018 BOE data show that 29.3% of all registered Robeson County voters, nearly six to one Democrats, not including any felons, folks who have moved or deceased, are in denied/inactive status. It is time for Democrats to not just “activate the base” of regular voters, but retake America street by street, neighborhood by neighborhood including offering people their Constitutional rights back, door to door. Robeson was denied 99% of FEMA funds requested. It is time the big money races start caring about the people too poor to pay to play. IF the DCCC can send organizers to Anson County, they should also send organizers to Robeson.

  2. Ebrun

    The problem for the GOP in this district is Harris himself, no so much Trump. It was obviously to me and many knowledgeable observers of NC politics that Harris, a right wing evangelical minister, would not appeal to the suburban voters that make up a substantial portion of the voters in NC-09.

  3. Carl Mahler

    I found this part of the article particularly interesting: “In North Carolina, with no US Senate or governor’s race on the ballot, Trump is the de facto top of the ticket. He’s underwater in the district he won by double digits two years ago. The GOP won’t be able to get away from him no matter how hard they try. He’ll be a drag on the ticket up and down the ballot.” This inspired me to do some digging into the data.
    There are 17 states that don’t have any races for US Senate this year. Of those 17, 3 (Kentucky, Louisiana, and North Carolina) don’t have races for governor either. All six senators from these three states are Republican – which is rather unexpected, given that registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in all three states. Although Republican voter turn-out in off-year elections is usually higher than Democratic turnout I think we can reasonably expect that Democrats are at least as motivated this year as Republicans (something about “Trump being the de facto top of the ticket”).
    Kentucky has six members in the US House of Representatives, five of whom are Republicans and one is a Democrat. 50% of registered voters in Kentucky are Dems, 41% are Republicans.
    Louisiana also has six members in the US House of Representatives, five of whom are Republicans and one is a Democrat. 44% of registered voters in Louisiana are Dems, 30% are Republicans.
    North Carolina has thirteen members in the US House of Representatives, ten of whom are Republicans and three are Democrats. 38% of registered voters in North Carolina are Dems, 30% are Republicans.
    Certainly not all the Republican House members in these states will lose, but it’s pretty likely that many of these seats are in play. That’s a total of 20 potential pickups for Democrats in the House in just these three states. They only need 24 to retake the House.
    Things aren’t looking so bad for the Dems.

  4. Jay Ligon

    Gerrymandering creates an advantage for the party in power by giving greater weight to votes for the incumbents. If the party in power cannot get out the vote, gerrymandering can be defeated. The problem for the Republicans may be that there is more than a trace of decency in some of the people in the party.

    Shreds of decency are inconsistent with the onslaught of despicable news from Washington and Raleigh. Something to offend everyone.

    Infants and toddlers in cages and the construction of concentration camps might be mildly unsettling even for the most rabid haters of minorities and a few who remember the atrocities of World War II. Racists will rejoice, and there are a great many more racists in the Republican Party than previously known. But grabbing babies from their mothers and keeping them away from their families could be a bridge too far, even though, admitted Jew-hating Nazis are running for office as Republicans and winning races. My father and every father in my neighborhood fought the Nazis. There weren’t good Nazis and bad Nazis back then. Nazis were just bad. They killed tens of millions of people.

    Where did we get so many Nazis? One Nazi is too many, but we have a lot of actual Nazis. In Charlottesville, a Nazi killed Heather Heyer with his car. How do Republicans get excited about heading to the polls to vote for Nazis, even if Trump says some of them are good people. Really? Good for what?

    Innocent victims of sexual abuse and porn stars accused of lying by their abuser might disturb a few Republicans who have a molecule of morality or a daughter, a wife or a mother. There might be a Republican woman who dreams of a man who would be faithful to her. Bragging about grabbing random women by the pussy seems inconsistent with those aspirations. By the way, where are these locker rooms where men brag about sexual assault? Prison? But how do Republicans get excited about heading to the polls to mark their ballot for the sexual predator or the child molester? Some do, and keep your hands to yourselves, you creeps.

    Disrespect for men and women in uniform would give some Americans pause. For years after the Vietnam War, there was a veterans movement to get the MIA/POW (missing in action and prisoners of war) home from the Far East. Our nation has moved past decency when a criticism of veterans’ service is that they were taken prisoner by the enemy and that they endured torture while in captivity as if these veterans chose that option from a menu. “I like heroes who weren’t captured.” Is that what excites the Republicans? Gold Star families have been insulted by this president. Better for the draft-dodging public servant to remain silent on heroism and to honor our fallen heroes rather than criticise them. He may not be a coward, but he is no hero. He hid when his name was called. Hard to get excited about courage and valor when Cadet Bone Spurs is seen dancing at Club 54.

    The corruption in this administration should give anyone pause. Anyone hoping that the swamp would be drained must be disappointed. This the most corrupt administration in history.

    Thousands of lies on Twitter, in the press, and in his speeches, would offend the few Republicans who can remember a time when our leaders spoke the truth on occasion. It is amazing how little all that lying and all that misinformation seems to bother so few Republicans.

    Never in the history of this country have so many Russians and Russian operatives played so prominent a part in policy decisions. Some Republicans might not be pro-Putin but The Republican Party has been essentially dominated by Russia since the election and is doing the bidding of Putin. Are there any patriots left in the Republican Party?

    Trump may have attended Penn for a few semesters. My guess is that he cheated his way through, because he didn’t learn much. There are no credible economists who believe that this trade war will help the United States. Prices will rise, and farmers will lose their overseas markets. It is folly. Even for the hardcore businessman who will live with concentration camps, whores, lies, espionage, and abuse of women and children, the economic reasons for supporting the Republicans do not make sense.

    This may be one of those occasions when the power in party runs out of reasons to stay in power and their constituents lose the will to win, because winning is losing. Bigly.

  5. Marshall Adame'

    Democrats statewide must continually be educating the NC population about Trump, the NC Legislature and the blindly walked road to the bottom they have put America on.
    We must educate the NC population about how they are being mislead by the Republican Party and how it has turned it’s back on every middle class and poor family in the Nation.
    Only together, Democrats, Independents, and the Republicans who refuse to walk blindly into the abyss, can we return our state and our country to civility , sanity, world leadership and a path forward.

    • BKBarlow

      Excellent directions. Need to get this out to the average Joe who does not pay attention!

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