The widening urban rural-divide and other thoughts

by | Nov 9, 2022 | Editor's Blog | 13 comments

In North Carolina, the election turned out about like I expected. Ted Budd beat Cheri Beasley, the GOP took control of the Supreme Court, and Republicans added seats in both houses of the legislature. On the bright side, Wiley Nickel won the state’s one competitive Congressional seat and Democrats prevented a veto-proof majority in the state House. It’s tough to be a Democrat in North Carolina these days. 

Most disheartening for me is watching the rural-urban divide increasing in our state. Republicans won Anson County, where I grew up, for the first time in my lifetime. They won other once reliably Democratic counties like Gates, Perquimans, and Pasquotank in what we used to refer to as “the northeast corner.” Democrats only won twelve rural counties, and that includes Watauga, which is more of a college town than a rural community, and Chatham, where the more populous northern part includes Chapel Hill addresses. 

Just as Republicans run up margins in rural counties, Democrats are running them up in urban counties. Durham delivered 80% of its vote for Beasley. Counties in the west, those without many African American residents, delivered 75% or more for Budd. Those divides aren’t healthy and are creating bubbles that prevent either side from empathizing with the other. 

Nationally, last night was a victory for Democrats. They stopped the cycle of midterm waves that began in 2006. They likely held the U.S. Senate and could possibly hold the House, though Republicans will most likely have a thin majority there. Election deniers lost up and down the ballot. As I write this, Lauren Boebert looks poised to lose her seat in Colorado. Trump took it on the chin as his favorite candidates went down in flames. 

Senate races in Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona are still too early or too close to call. Republicans would need to win two of them to win the Senate. In Georgia, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock holds a narrow lead over Herschel Walker, but is under 50% which means the race would likely go to a runoff. Warnock would likely be the favorite in a head-to-head with nothing else on the ballot since Walker probably benefitted from Governor Brian Kemp’s substantial victory. In Nevada, a lot of mail-in ballots have yet to be counted. While Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Castro trails Republican Adam Laxalt, Nevada political observers believe there are enough votes left for Cortez Castro to hold her seat. In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Blake Masters by more than 100,000 votes but only 66% have been counted. Kelly should hold on. 

Abortion proved to be a big concern of voters, offsetting fears of inflation and crime. In states where it was on the ballot, pro-choice measures won and helped drive out the vote. California, Vermont, and Michigan passed measures to add abortion rights to their constitutions and even conservative Kentucky rejected an anti-abortion measure. Moving forward, I suspect Republicans will be cautious about introducing stringent anti-abortion measures, especially where they can put them on the ballot. 

I suspect people rejected GOP candidates that they saw as threats to democracy, those most aligned with Donald Trump. Staunch election deniers lost across the country. Republicans would be wise to move away from Trump and their election denialism. 

Also, I think Biden’s success during the summer is underrated. While his job approval is still underwater, it’s been steadily heading in the right direction. He delivered on his promise of bipartisanship with the infrastructure, gun safety, and CHIPs bills. He was forceful in his defense of his record down the stretch and he called out Republicans for everything from threatening democracy to threatening social security. People want the president to succeed and they’re glad that he’s done what he’s done, even if they aren’t too happy with inflation and are wary about the economy. 

I think last night showed that the country, as a whole, wants the middle back. They’re tired of Trump and celebrity candidates like Mehmet Oz and Kari Lake. Inflammatory may still work with the base, but not so much with rank-and-file voters. In North Carolina, Republicans are dependent on an uneducated rural base continuing to move to the right. They can drive up margins in a low turnout year like this one, but they’ll probably have a harder time winning in high turnout years like 2024. Overall, their base is shrinking and the Democratic base is growing, albeit very slowly.

13 Comments

  1. Ellie Kinnaird

    Missing in the explanations for the loss of Cherie Beasley to Ted Budd is the role race and gender played. It is similar to the election of Mark Robinson over Yvonne Holley – a competent, experienced woman, who was defeated by a man with no experience and a murky platform before he was elected. The Beasley-Budd race had both: a Black woman vs. a white man while both competent and experienced, those biases determined the outcome.
    We are not yet at a gender-race neutral state in North Carolina. We may have to wait for the next generation.

  2. Andy Stevens

    Speaking of “It’s tough to be a Democrat in North Carolina these days.”….

    Don’t bet on that lost supermajority in the House. rumor has it several Democrats finding it tough to be a Democrat and wanting perhaps to cement a fair district to run for reelection in two years are contemplating a Party switch.

    Barring that, Democrat house members in Raleigh have a bad record of not showing up every day. After all, its a tough commute and hard to justify when they literally do and impact nothing while they’re there. It only takes an absence of TWO for the conservative supermajority to be absolute.

    I see the ink drying up in Cooper’s veto pen this session.

  3. Keith P.

    Considering the fact that the republicans have now taken control of the supreme court, that means that we will be going back to the extreme congressional gerrymanders that the democrats fought hard to eliminate. The republicans will act fast to regain the super-majority numbers in the state’s congress. So, regardless of who the governor is, he will have very little, if any, power to legislate.

  4. jimbuie

    Chatham, where I live, will not be rural much longer. An electric car manufacturing plant is bringing 7,000 jobs possibly over the next two years. Spillover from the expansion of Apple in the Triangle, an electric battery plant in Guilford and more regional growth will transform Pittsboro and Siler City environs over the next 10 years into the new CARY — Containment Area for Relocated Yankees — except they aren’t being contained. Chatham, strongly Democratic, has the lowest unemployment in the state. Meanwhile, rural Scotland County (Laurinburg) where I grew up, has the highest unemployment in the state. On Tuesday, it voted STRONGLY Republican, for the first time that I can remember. It voted for Trump by just 400 votes 2 years ago. NC is facing an identity crisis or IMHO.https://jimbuie.substack.com/p/fast-growing-north-carolina-faces

  5. Matthew Eisley

    I challenge the usual “urban-rural divide” narrative. North Carolina is better considered a state with urban, rural, and *small town” areas. Indeed, the state is awash in small towns to a greater extent than most. They aren’t urban, but they’re not rural. And, time after time, they help decide our elections.

    • JB

      I live in one of those “small” towns, but it’s a satellite of Raleigh, and growing at (in my opinion) a completely sustainable pace. With that, and the somewhat less extortioner housing prices that come with being not-Raleigh, the solidly Republican, disturbingly MAGA population is being diluted by imported liberals on a near daily basis. It will probably vote for whatever the MAGAverse squeezes out for a candidate in 2024, but beyond that things could get very interesting.

  6. R. Insley

    Nearly 40 years ago Walter Mondale lost Swain County, in the far west mountains, by 12 votes. Two years later Michael Dukakis won it as well as nearby Haywood Country, home to one of the few unionized plants in NC.

    In 2002, Elizabeth Dole won Asheville’s Buncombe County by a single vote in her race for the US Senate race against Erskine Bowles. The mountain counties around Buncombe vote for Bowles.

    Yesterday, Cherie Beasley won formerly purple Buncombe by 25 points, and lost the once Democratic counties all by double digits. Yancey County voted for Kay Hagen in 2008 by nearly 8 points. Six years later it voted for Thom Tillis by 11 points and yesterday for Ted Budd by more than 30 points.

    The urban/rural divide is indeed real, and the sorting that is fueling it is dangerous.

    Democrats in NC have to stop with the strategy of running up big margins in urban counties while ignoring rural ones. For one thing it isn’t working, and for another it is unhealthy for the state and the country. Roy Cooper can’t run again in 2024 and Mark Robinson as governor will not help with any of that.

  7. Mark

    I think if you look at Fetterman and to lesser extent Tim Ryan you see the importance of engagement in rural communities. They both did better than trump in 2020. No you don’t have to win them but you do have to cut the margins even if it’s by one or 2%.

  8. Jay Zenner

    It’s been a number of years now but I did a lot of work with some of the agricultural interests (tobacco and pork) in the rural areas of North Carolina that in the last few years have voted Republican. I need to note that I vote in every election that I can and have never voted for a Republican for anything and have always lived in an urban environment within a few blocks of a 7-11 or a Family Fare. One thing became very clear to me interacting with these folks. Their resentment of liberals is real and justified especially for urban folks who dictate from an ivory tower and who have often taken little time to try to understand the economic realities and cultural norms of these rural areas. This includes politicians and members of the news media. I especially lost respect myself for some of the environmental groups who would ignore any scientific data that didn’t support their goals, one of them in particular. If we are ever going to close the gap, we urban liberals are going to have to listen as well as preach.

    • TC

      I think you have the crux of the problem in hand Jay. I was talking with someone today about a similar situation. It does however lend itself to the Urban/Rural paradox. Typically, we find higher educated, more socially liberal populations in the urban areas. Hence, more people with progressive ideations and tendencies. And just as you observe, more conservative right leaning people are found in more rural environs. Places where you have to be knowledgeable across a broad spectrum. Where your solution to commonly encountered problems is what you bring to the table. People more self-sufficient as opposed to their urban counterparts or call someone else to come and deal with their problem. Not all encompassing but it does fit.

      The urban dweller, to a greater or lesser extent often views their rural cousins as rubes. Rednecks, bumpkins unable or unwilling to commit to attaining formal education and engaging in vocations (careers if vocation offends you) where you think more than you labor. The rural person is looked down upon because they work with their hands. They are, for all intents and purposes, blue collar. What the urban elite fails to take stock of however is, these people are not stupid. Lack of formal education is not indicia of a lack of intelligence. Nor does a preponderance of degrees indicate you’re smart. Educated perhaps, not necessarily smart. Difference. And as Jay said, the resentment you feel is more often than not, deserved.

      I’ve seen Thomas write about here before. Talking to people rather than talking down to people. Not being talking at but coming together across a common table on common ground for the common good. Treating the other as an equal, one to the other.

      That would be a perfect starting point for a new approach and a new understanding. Might not lead to agreement, but a mutual respect. Something missing from our polarized world of what can only be considered to be C- work.

      We have two ears and one mouth for a reason. If the mouth is open, the ears aren’t.

      • JB

        Your’e talking about people who vote for politicians that are bought and paid for by companies that very literally spray them (or at least their property) with shit. But they own the libs, so they’re okay with this. As Trey “Liberal Redneck” Crowder once observed, “A conservative is a guy who would burn down his own house if it meant the liberal next door had to choke on the smoke for 30 seconds”.

        They may not be stupid, but they have sufficient spite to pass for it.

  9. Mike L

    I have a feeling in the near future Democrats are going to have to rely on the large urban counties being large enough and blue enough to win statewide. I think if they were all blue to the extent Durham is (imagine Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Forsyth voting 80 percent or more for Democrats) they’d have a shot. But as it is now and probably for the next 10-20 years Democrats need to stop the rural and exurban bleeding.

  10. Ed Harrison

    You write, “…Chatham, where the more populous northern part includes Chapel Hill addresses. ” When I was a Chapel Hill Councilmember residing in Durham County and with a Durham mailing address, I used some reliable sources [transit system user surveys done on-bus, for example] to see the extent of Chapel Hill postal service addresses. I then dot-mapped the data. CH postal service addresses occur in Orange, Durham, Chatham and Alamance counties. The area comes out to about seven times the size of the actual Chapel Hill municipality — legal and thoroughly mapped town limits. I think that far more important in northeastern Chatham is the relatively quick auto commute to campus. Also CH Transit runs buses from a large park&ride lot a few feet (literally) into Chatham County directly into the main campus.
    [And, I will once again check the box to “Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.” It has not been saved once. ]

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