Thoughts on a poll

by | Nov 15, 2021 | Editor's Blog | 4 comments

This morning I have more random thoughts than cohesive ones. My main thoughts are about the Washington Post/ABC poll that shows Democrats trailing Republicans on the Congressional generic ballot by ten points, the largest lead for the GOP in the history of the poll. Those numbers should have Democrats worried and taking action. However, I don’t think it’s too late for Democrats to have a decent election in 2022.

I don’t believe Democrats can hold the House next year, but I do believe they might be able to hold the Senate. Republicans hold the redistricting pens in too many states for Democrats to sustain their narrow majority in the House. Only a dramatic shift in the political environment and the perceptions of the Republican Party could change the dynamic. That’s not impossible but also not likely. 

However, the poll also showed that the programs in the Build Back Better bill and in the infrastructure bill are extremely popular. Democrats have done a lousy job of letting Americans know what’s in the bills and taking credit. Instead, they’ve allowed the infighting, or sausage making, to dominate the headlines. If Build Back Better passes, the allied SuperPACs should be spending like it’s October of an election year to promote the bill and bash Republicans for opposing everything from paid family to reducing the price of prescription drugs. 

Much of the Democrats’ woes are beyond their power to control. Inflation is definitely taking its toll and there are no good answers to it. The Fed raising interest rates may reel it in, but also may cause Democrats more heartache with concerns of a recession. Fortunately, the rest of the economy is actually fairly strong and if inflation will stabilize over the next six to nine months, it may not hurt Democrats a year from now.

COVID is also a problem. The spike in the fall left people dubious about an end to the pandemic and return to normal. However, hospitalizations and deaths are declining now, even if public opinion is lagging. While we may see another spike in winter, if hospitals don’t get overwhelmed and restrictions start to lessen, then voters might give Biden and the Democrats credit for getting the virus under control. 

But I believe the biggest Democratic problem is more endemic. The party has let itself be defined by a left flank that is more interested in identity politics than addressing the kitchen table concerns of average Americans. They see the problems of our country through the lens of racial and gender politics while the voters Democrats need to win don’t view the country that way. They have convinced themselves that the country is center-left while the states they need to win to control the Senate or win the presidency are predominantly center-right. 

Even if the left is right that racial or gender biases drive legislation that harms working families, talking about problems in those terms alienates more voters than it attracts. Democrats would have a better chance of addressing the issues of racial and gender disparities if they spend more time talking about the issues that directly affect the lives of a broader cross section of the American public. The left, though, is convinced that talking about hot-button issues will attract more of the base to the polls. I just haven’t seen any evidence that they are right. 

4 Comments

  1. cocodog

    Perhaps, if republicans take over the house in 2022, they will stop trying to trash the place. Thus, saving the taxpayers the cost of cleaning up the human waste in the hallways, buffing out the four-letter words scratched into the marble, replacing doors and windows, and paying for the medical expenses of the cops hired to protect the place. Republicans can busy themselves voting for get even impeachments, conducting Benghazi style investigations into anybody who would dare to oppose their agenda and packing firearms. A good time would be had by all.

  2. cocodog

    Obama faced several major disease issues, which were handled and are not part of our history.
    Inflation appears be rearing its ugly head worldwide, de-stabling the world economy. I recall Trump talked about rebuilding inter structure, but never did anything about as his time was devoted to running the graft and trying to build something somewhere with other people’s money.
    When folks see the results of Biden’s programs, coupled with the FAT Cats paying the Lyons share of the taxes, instead of investing in luxury yachts and homes, things will improve for Democrats. Folks seem happy with the notion their bridges, roads, broad band and government owned airports are among projects addressed by the Biden Legislation.

  3. phoenix

    Those numbers should have Democrats worried and taking action. However, I don’t think it’s too late for Democrats to have a decent election in 2022. —-Optimistic and Naive in my opinion.

    I don’t believe Democrats can hold the House next year, but I do believe they might be able to hold the Senate—-Nope they are very much hated Nationwide for many good reasons.

    However, the poll also showed that the programs in the Build Back Better bill and in the infrastructure bill are extremely popular.—No. Not really. The last thing that is needed is 5 trillion in more spending and governemnt and more federal welfare programs.

    Fortunately, the rest of the economy is actually fairly strong and if inflation will stabilize over the next six to nine months, it may not hurt Democrats a year from now.— Not going to happen most likely we are going to end up in a deflationary depression especially if we spend 5 trillion dollars. Do you have any idea how bad its is when we as the reserve currency feel inflation like this? raising rate is pretty much impossible. for a variety of reason. All of this is the fualt of Democrats.

    COVID is also a problem.—-No The response to covid id the problem. Fix that and a bunch of stuff will sort itself out.

    ut I believe the biggest Democratic problem is more endemic. The party has let itself be defined by a left flank that is more interested in identity politics than addressing the kitchen table concerns of average Americans. —–Right and wrong. Identity politics right. THEY HATE America and Americans. The need to be EXPUNGED from the party and MADE to start their own.

    Overall not a bad piece. I’ll give you a C-

  4. Rick Gunter

    Thank you for this column. It is a tragedy that the Democratic Party that has meant so much to so many people has allowed itself to be viewed as it is in many parts of the electorate. But the electorate is to blame also. Too many Americans, and lots of them live near me in Virginia, fail to see that the Party of Trump could care not one iota for their welfare. Being smart and strategic are vital. But dealing with stupid too often is impossible.

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