Even though Rand Paul got his day in the sun yesterday with his presidential announcement, his bid for the White House is a longshot. That’s because, next to Ted Cruz, he’s the guy towards which the GOP establishment has the most animus. While some suspect he’ll be a contender in the early states, his unorthodox views on foreign policy and civil liberties (for a Republican) is going to face a lot of scrutiny.
Then there’s Jeb Bush. His greatest asset is also a huge albatross: his last name. While he’s going to raise an enormous load of money, a lot of GOP voters just aren’t in the mood for another Bush in the White House. In addition, his moderate views make a lot of Republicans looking for other options.
Many conservatives are opting for Ted Cruz, who has a record that is farther to the right than any other candidate. But as mentioned before, the GOP establishment will declare war on Cruz if he gets traction. They’d rather go with Rand Paul. The two retreads from 2012, or the two Ricks – Perry and Santorum – are also going to run but they’re going to have to make a heck of a second impression to have a chance.
As for Chris Christie, it’s hard to believe that he was once considered the frontrunner. Increasingly it looks like he’s being squeezed out by Bush. Bush + Bridgegate + Budget woes in New Jersey = bad news for Christie. He’ll still run, but my guess is that the political environment is going to have to change majorly for him to rebound, which is certainly possible.
Given the lay of the field, I expect the nomination will go to whoever is the second choice of the most number of voters. That’s where Scott Walker and Marco Rubio come in. Both of them are fresh enough that they haven’t alienated a huge portion of the base, nor is the establishment opposed to them – and in a GOP primary, establishment support is crucial. While Bush is clearly the ‘establishment’ candidate, Jeb’s donors would probably be fine with the conservatives going with either Walker or Rubio.
Rubio is the sleeper candidate in the field. He was considered a rising star when he was elected in 2010 during the Tea Party wave and occupied a spot in between the establishment and the conservative grassroots. Then, he went all out for the immigration bill back in 2013 and his star faded.
Now, he’s on the rise again, for two reasons – one, he’s a compelling figure who is probably the most charismatic in the entire field, and second, he figured out that he screwed up and apologized for it. That’s right – he now says he doesn’t support the bill he fought for two years ago. It’s not a flip-flop, it’s more Obama-style “evolving” on the issue.
Interestingly, Rubio does best against Hillary Clinton in the general election, according to PPP. He trails her by 3 points. The nomination of either Bush or Rubio could help Republicans nail down Florida, an absolutely essential state for them. With conservatives all in a frenzy about Bush’s transgressions, Rubio might be the compromise candidate on which everyone can agree.
There’s one other aspect of the GOP primary that deserves mentioning, and that’s electability. Though it might sound fantastic, Republican voters actually have a very keen sense of a candidate’s electability, or lack thereof – at least in presidential contests. They went with Romney because he was deemed the most electable. McCain’s campaign was resurrected in part because voters felt he could win in the general.
Electability forgives a multitude of sins. Chris Christie is just as much of a moderate as he ever was but GOP voters were willing to overlook that because he was performing very strong in the early 2016 polls. Once the Bridgegate scandal had taken a toll on his image, his numbers in the head-to-heads suffered and GOP voters abandoned him. Why bother supporting a RINO, so the thinking goes, if he’s just going to lose anyway? That’s part of the predicament the governor of New Jersey is in right now. He’s unelectable because even Republicans don’t support him. And Republicans don’t support him because he’s unelectable. If he wants to mount a comeback he’s going to have to start by working on his appeal to the broader electorate and go from there.
That concludes my preliminary analysis of the race. One thing’s for sure, it’s going to be a heck of a primary.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Just came back here to reminisce. Couldn’t elp myself after today’s big news. See:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/21/politics/scott-walker-drops-out-2016-election/index.html
Ah, yes, there was dberwyn saying, back in April: “…don’t underestimate him, 3 elections in 5 years all winning in a Blue State….the man has Cred!”
And then TY Thompson saying “Limited intellect”? Hah, he has enough intellect to be an urban county executive and State Governor. How much intellect does he need, exactly?”
And my opposing view was that Walker would “unravel as a candidate over the next 19 months.”
The only aspect I was wrong about was that it took only 5 months for Walker to lose any chance to be the nominee, and to show that he didn’t have the smarts nor passion nor charisma nor following to be POTUS.
We didn’t have to wait for the national media to make mincemeat of Walker as the nominee. He mashed his own candidacy with constant off-key statements and dull performances in both debates.
Thanks, guys, for making me look prescient!
I’m socially liberal but fiscally moderate….I could see myself voting for certain New England Republicans as they are much more socially moderate than their national counterparts but I just can’t vote for someone who is against marriage equality and is rabidly anti abortion
Oh, and you forgot his being laughed at in London for refusing to answer a simple question about evolution.
That may make him appear to be a buffoon in London. But those are furriners. Republican base voters here in ‘Murica know that all that evolution stuff is the work of Satan.
Why answer an utterly banal question unrelated to running for political office?
TY: It’s pretty clear that they ask such a question on evolution because they’d like to get a fix on just how educated and how much a believer in science a potential POTUS is — or is not.
I’ll add that the leader of the most influential nation on earth should have a keen understanding, appreciation, and respect for one of the signature concepts and truths about life on earth.
And if you think a candidate’s answer to the question “Do you believe in the theory of Evolution?” has no bearing on that person’s qualifications for being POTUS, then you are as clueless as everybody in the GOP Clown Car
“The other is a candidate who had to survive a recall election, who’s state is suffering from his economic policies, who can’t seem to explain his college withdrawal, who is anti-union and anti-university, and who has several of his former staff looking at serious jail time.”
Apply Liberally, I don’t see these things as being a problem for Walker in the GOP primaries. What you see as bugs many Republican primary voters see as features. Don’t underestimate Walker’s shot at the nomination.
Anti-union?
That is a plus in a GOP primary. If the average Republican primary voter was informed enough to know what the Wagner Act was they would favor it’s repeal. The fact that they are ignorant of basic facts doesn’t make them any less anti-union. Crushing unions may work to keep their own wages lower but they don’t care. The anti-union nonsense fits better on a bumper sticker.
Withdrew from college? Attacks the University of Wisconsin system? The university filled with all those egghead intellectuals trying to fool us with all their “facts” and “science” and trying to turn our children into communists?
Again, this is a plus with GOP primary voters. It may be appalling how long it has been since Republicans made any sort of honest appeal based on a coherent conservative political philosophy, but that has created a bizarro world in which their candidates must operate.
Making a thoughtful case for areas where government might play a smaller role or recognizing the genuine value of a state’s university system while still trying to reign in it’s budget where possible just ain’t gonna happen. It is all about appealing to GOP voters sense of victimization and drawing stark contrasts between “Leftists” (defined pretty much as anyone to the left of Genghis Khan) in the evil government and on university campuses.
Survived a recalll election?
You gotta be kidding me. That makes him a hero! He survived an attempt by the “Leftists” to knock him off for bravely protecting them from higher wages and safer workplaces and fair employment practices.
Yes, he is painfully ignorant of foreign policy. To the point of being scary. But he is not a Sarah Palin (I’ll never forgive John McCain for that one). They had to basically give Palin a crash remedial history course. Why there was a North and South Korea was beyond her level of understanding. Walker may be a lightweight, but he is educable. They will prep him up enough so that he will be able (if he sticks to a script) to sound like he has some level of understanding.
What is truly terrifying is the “experts” who will be briefing him. The same crowd who still think they are brilliant for having blown up the Middle East by toppling a largely contained Saddam Hussein and handing the upper hand in the region to Iran on a silver platter. At a cost of trillions of dollars and tens of thousands of casualties. The same folks our “journalists” still regularly go to for expert opinion.
But if you can get good early odds, betting a little beer on Walker getting the nomination might prove to be a smart move.
Oh, believe me, Dan R, I definitely “don’t underestimate Walker’s shot at the nomination”. In fact, IMO, he has the best chance of anyone in the Clown Car.
Yes, all the attributes I mentioned (and that you underscore) indeed make him a hero among the neo-cons. But, those things also place him right in the crosshairs and windmill of the national press. And, in the inquisition that is the presidential race, his relatively poor economic record in Wisconsin, his limited intellect, his track record of going back on promises, his inexperience in foreign affairs, and his frequent malaprops will be fair game for the media, and his answers will hurt him among too many moderates and unaffiliateds — voters any candidate desperately needs to win the US Presidency.
I didn’t graduate from college. Does that make me lazy, ignorant, unfit for public office? I thought the Democrats believed in supporting and respecting blue-collar people.
And anyone who has followed my postings knows that I am no fan of America’s “Walkers.”
River Rat Dem I said nor implied nothing of the negative sort about Walker (or anyone else, for that matter) not graduating from college. FYI, facts are that he was accused of unethical student government campaigning practices while at Marquette, and he left school thereafter. It has been very difficult to get a clear explanation as to whether his withdrawal was related to that incident, to bad grades, or to a job opportunity.
That’s called majoring on a minor. Or nitpicking. Who gives a damn why he left? He got three years of education. Statistics show that a ton of people drop out after one year. And Marquette is a crappy school, “unethical campaigning” is a dumb accusation which might have been nothing more than “he was making mean faces at somebody”. “Limited intellect”? Hah, he has enough intellect to be an urban county executive and State Governor. How much intellect does he need, exactly?
So, he’s your boy, TY? That means you won’t enjoy watching him unravel as a candidate over the next 19 months.
And nice to know that you are an unbiased expert on colleges and their academics.
And he allegedly removed and destroyed most copies of the Marquette student newspaper just before student gov elections, which included an editorial endorsement of his opponent.
And as for “How much intellect does he need, exactly?,” that’s easy. Not much to be the GOP nominee.
TY, I certainly don’t have a list of prerequisites for running for any office. More importantly, the Constitution has very few qualifications to serve as president.
Personally, I might prefer a president who wasn’t a product of the Ivy League. I recall that we had a very fine Chief of Staff of the Army during WWII who didn’t graduate from West Point. I wish we had more Supreme Court justices like O’Connor who served in a state legislature and managed a ranch or Douglas who came east in a boxcar to attend law school. You know, people who understand the real world and the effect of the Court’s decisions on real people in the real world. When there are nothing but academics on the Court we get decisions like Citizens United and are left to witness the justices who voted with the majority being surprised when what anyone with a passing familiarity with the real world could have told them was certain to happen actually happens.
I don’t favor a worshipful attitude toward intellectuals. There’s a great line about intellectuals proving that a person can be absolutely brilliant and still not know what the hell is going on. But that is a far cry from the willful ignorance that has become such a disturbingly prominent feature of modern Republican politics.
I couldn’t care less that Walker has no degree. I have no degree. But I understand the value to society of a great university system. And I’d like to see it be there for my grandchildren to attend. That’s where I part company with people like Walker, and our own Republicans in Raleigh for that matter, who don’t seem to have any notion of what a great resource it is.
Please! Holding a college degree does NOT makes one an “academic” or an “intellectual.”
I wouldn’t begrudge anyone holding elective office just because they did not have a college diploma. But, to me, having a college degree is a plus, and not the minus that some on this thread seem to want to argue……
I have severe doubts that the Democrats could ever support someone who didn’t finish an academic education. I personally had no way to answer the question of the great man theory as opposed to the great times manufacture of that great man. I’ve thought about it since my incomplete landing on the Great Man as the deciding factor. To make up for the lack of academic credentialism I did publish Poor Buzz & Stories from Warning for my Daughter. Political success is dependent on Huey Long tactics, newspaper, book, oratory, (radio) rah rah for the University Team, and taxes that fund education. Of course Huey Long could take and pass the bar, period, in those days. I personally can’t afford to pay for a 95 reading of what I’ve produced. For all regardless the rules are: Radio show, TV, Book, Newspaper. Now I do youtube, and a website. I did radio, and will do it as possible. All my studies were focused on the founding of a nation of airports, so there you have it: I finished up with the currency the Insurodollar. I see Rand Paul is going with the Bitcoin. I challenge him with the Insurodollar. At the Convention Saturday, tomorrow I aim to be heard for it. Might not happen.
Oops again…
Walker Walker Walker…. All The Way! John, don’t underestimate him, 3 elections in 5 years all winning in a Blue State….the man has Cred!
Oops…
So, John, in your mind the two passengers in the GOP Clown Car that seem to have the most potential of winning the nomination and the presidency are Rubio and Walker??
One is a candidate who, despite your contention, has indeed done a major flip-flop on immigration, and can’t seem to pace his speechifying without a bad case of dry-mouth.
The other is a candidate who had to survive a recall election, who’s state is suffering from his economic policies, who can’t seem to explain his college withdrawal, who is anti-union and anti-university, and who has several of his former staff looking at serious jail time.
The media doesn’t call it the Clown Car for nothing, John, and views like yours only suggest, that, at best, they are merely the two clowns who are sitting in the drivers and shotgun seats.