Last fall, when GOP candidates were going to forums and meeting voters, Thom Tillis was absent. At several events, organizers left an empty chair, symbolizing the missing state house speaker. Tillis repeatedly said he couldn’t wait to engage his opponents in debates but that his schedule was full in the fall. Now, Tillis is ducking out of the WRAL debate, the only one held on a network affiliate.
The move says a lot about Tillis and a lot about debates. For frontrunners, debates are seen as risks. They aren’t watched by large numbers of viewers but they put candidates in stressful, unpredictable environments where they might make public gaffes. Frontrunners usually try to limit their debate appearances and opt for scripted, message-controlled TV ads.
The WRAL debate likely will have the largest audience in the state. It’s a network affiliate and is offering the feed to other stations around the state. The other two debates are on Time Warner Cable and UNC Public Television, outlets with fewer viewers. For the lesser known, and lesser funded, candidates, these debates are the dog-and-pony show they need. They are an opportunity to show off their knowledge and compare themselves with the better funded frontrunners like Tillis. They also offer the opportunity to attack.
While Tillis claims he has a scheduling conflict that he can’t change, he’s really just trying to avoid that comparison. However, Tillis is playing into the narrative that Brannon and Harris have developed about him. He’s more beholden to special interests than he is to the voters and, after pledging to debate, he can’t be taken at his word. If he has a conflict that’s more important than talking to voters, it’s to collect checks from some of his favorite big donors. Now, if Brannon or Harris can just get that message out.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
I’d say this just about guarantees a runoff. Tillis needs to shake things up, and he’s running out of time: it’s three weeks to primary day. And, here’s a nice black eye, self-inflicted: “I couldn’t be bothered to show up to explain myself to interested voters.” With 30% of adults leaving broadcast television behind, it becomes a challenge for Tillis to reach the demographics that can push him over 40%. A significant portion of that demographic will be watching the debates, and he’ll lose a good chunk of them with a no-show. The facebook crowd will trend toward social conservatives, I suspect, and will not be kind to Tillis. So I suspect his numbers to go down, not up, these last three weeks.
An interesting question, then, becomes who can catch some momentum these last three weeks. A strong performance for either Harris or Brannon could change the race a lot.
Brave Sir Tillis Bravely Ran Away, Away, Brave Sir Tillis Ran Away.