The legislature is losing its one unaffiliated member. Paul Tine, who represents a coastal district in the State House, in a previous post Tine was named as the most vulnerable incumbent legislator in the lower chamber.
By ending his tenure on his own terms, Tine avoids a brutal fight for survival. But the legislator says political considerations didn’t weigh into his decision-making process and that he relished the opportunity to run as an independent. Instead, Tine cited the length of the legislative session and the consequent burden on his family as the reason.
Tine, of Kitty Hawk, was first elected to the House in 2012 as a Democrat by exploiting a Tea Party/establishment divide in the GOP. Shortly after winning reelection last year, a dispute with his party’s leadership led to him leaving the Democrats and caucusing with the Republicans.
Party switching does not tend to be a winning career move in today’s politics, and Tine really had only two ways to win a third term: either run as an independent, or try to win over skeptical Republicans by acquiring a conservative voting record. In the end, it looks like Tine chose to do neither.
The stage is now set for an open-seat contest. Democrats are going to have difficulty winning this eastern district, unless they can find another moderate in the mold of Mr. Tine. It’s possible Tea Party favorite Mattie Lawson will run again, in which case Team Blue might have an opening – Lawson was Tine’s opponent in both of his campaigns and failed to attract support from the Raleigh establishment.
History might repeat itself once again, but the GOP is favored no matter who they nominate; Mitt Romney won here in 2012 with nearly 60% of the vote. Right now, the only announced candidate on the Republican side is Ashley Woolard of Beaufort County. Woolard is a former presidential elector and was the party’s nominee against G.K. Butterfield in 2010.
Tine’s story illustrates the danger of being unaffiliated in this day and age. In the rough-and-tumble world of modern politics, it’s safest to go either hard left or hard right. Those like Tine who are on the middle of the spectrum frequently wind up in the good graces of no one.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Democrats must be willing to let go of some their preferences to attract a candidate moderate enough to win in this district. We can get most but not all of what he want in a candidate. Our tent is big enough to house the winner in this and other competitive house districts.
That’s fine with me, but Tine is a turncoat. He took Democratic money, Democratic volunteers and Democratic consultants in an effort to win his race, then left the caucus because they wouldn’t give him personal power. A big tent is okay, as long as you’re actually willing to stay in it.
You should have made his picture Pete Campbell. Both are self-serving little pricks.
This race won’t make any difference at all if a GOP’er wins. Tine sided with the GOP.
But, BTW, after reading all of Mr. Wynne’s district strategy analyses about the forthcoming 2016 campaigns/elections, it seems that we’re all supposed to prepare ourselves for the NCGOP widening its super-majority margin in both the NC Senate and House.
Any bets that’s really gonna happen??