Trending red or trending blue?

by | Jun 27, 2016 | 2016 Elections, Editor's Blog, NC Politics | 4 comments

There’s a lot of debate over whether North Carolina is trending red or trending blue. The state’s not been consistent enough to draw any definitive conclusions. In 2008 and 2010, North Carolina behaved like most of the rest of the nation. Democrats won big in 2008 and then lost big in 2010.

In 2012, though, North Carolina took a different route. While Democrats were winning in states across the country, in North Carolina they lost big. A Republican governor was elected in landslide and the GOP won a veto-proof majority in the legislature. They picked up three US House seats and won lieutenant governor.

At first, the state appeared to be taking a hard right turn. Then, in 2014, the state bucked national trends again. While the rest of the country got buried in a Republican wave, North Carolina Democrats actually picked up legislative seats. While Kay Hagan lost her senate campaign, the margin was less than two points.

This year, we’ll find out whether North Carolina continues to buck the trends. In recent polls, Donald Trump’s numbers have started collapsing. In one poll, he trails by 12 points and even averages have him down in the upper single digits.

In North Carolina, though, Trump is holding steady. According to a recent PPP poll, Trump and Clinton are tied. A CBS poll has Clinton up by two but within the margin of error. Real Clear Politics’ average has Trump +1.5 in North Carolina.

It could be that the anti-Hillary sentiment is just stronger here. We have large liberal enclaves where some Sanders supporters might not be willing to support Clinton yet. If they come around, maybe Clinton starts to open up a lead.

We also have economically distressed rural areas where Trump’s populist message resonates. If that’s what is keeping the race close, then it’s also a measure of the weakness of the GOP’s so-called Carolina Comeback. Support for Trump seems mostly driven by economic insecurity and frustration with politics in general. Ironically, if people were feeling better about their financial situations, then Trump’s support would probably drop while support for the GOP in Raleigh would climb. Instead, a large portion of North Carolinians, particularly working class whites, seem to be still dissatisfied.

In 2016, we’ll see if North Carolina is trending one way or the other. It’s certainly one of the most competitive states in the nation.  Maybe we’ll just be purple for a long time to come.

4 Comments

  1. Jay Ligon

    Trump’s gaffs are causing mainstream Republicans to flee from what will surely be one of the worst thumpings in electoral memory. Republican supporters of the Trump campaign have explained his oddly out-in-left-field messages by saying that he says what he thinks. He is without guile and he says what he says without considering the political correctness of it. Opponents of Trump say that he is a racist and a xenophobe who only expresses a message of hate and greed.

    In recent weeks, larger events have become a test of presidential leadership. As crises have presented themselves, the leaders of the parties have had a few moments to posture as if they were already president. These moments have exposed a not-ready-for-prime-time Trump who seemed clueless and self-absorbed. He congratulated himself on hating Muslins after the Orlando shootings, and he told the English that even though it must suck to be them, his businesses would thrive as the pound crashes, as if the Brits were consumed by worry about his fortune.

    Trump doesn’t have a diplomatic bone in his body and he has no idea what is required of the leader of the free world. That much has become transparently obvious. Some things can be learned with a fertile mind and a curious nature. We have seen leaders, like Reagan and Clinton, be schooled in some aspects of public policy about which they were ignorant. They were humble enough to be teachable. Trump is both ignorant and too arrogant to be taught much of anything. There were some subjects in school which were too comprehensive to permit a student to cram everything in a night or two before the finals. The amount of knowledge was too comprehensive and required incremental accumulation. Trump has run out of time to learn the essentials of government. The United States of America is the largest enterprise in the history of mankind. It cannot be learned over a long weekend.

    Reagan and Clinton came to the office with substantial government experience under the belts, and they had assembled teams of competent bureaucrats who were skilled in statecraft. Trump’s got his Twitter.

    Trump is failing fast, and his warts are not charming. He is the loudmouth at the end of the bar who thinks he knows everything and wants to pick a fight with everyone. Billions of dollars helps in politics, but you also need some friends.

    • David Schmitt

      Excellent post Jay , you should be writing for the site .

      • Jay Ligon

        Thank you.

  2. Maurice Murray III

    The polls done in May showing Donald ahead may be the result of him receiving a bounce from winning the Republicon nomination. These polls also have a higher number of undecideds. Elon completed a poll, with the least number of undecided, which showed Hillary ahead in April.

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