Trumpmentum

by | Feb 5, 2020 | 2020 elections, Editor's Blog | 6 comments

It’s a long way to November and a lot will change. In the roller-coaster world of electoral politics, there are constant ups and downs. What one day seems imminently possible, the next seems utterly impossible. Right now, I’m in the trough.

I sense that Donald Trump has the momentum and has consolidated his base as we start the year. He knows he’s going to beat impeachment and the GOP is never going to hold him accountable for anything. Tax cuts and deregulation are more important than any of the values they once claimed to hold. His support among Republicans is 94% and his approval rating, according to Gallup, is higher than it has been during his presidency. 

In contrast, the party that claims to want fair and free elections can’t even hold a caucus. The debacle in Iowa left Democrats looking inept. The caucuses themselves seemed to make voting more difficult and excluded people who wanted to participate. The failure of the app gave Republicans a great talking point: If Democrats can’t run a caucus, how do they expect to run a government. 

The economy is chugging along, propped up by $22 trillion in debt and a deficit that exceeds $1 trillion. The unemployment rate is so low that the only people who aren’t working are those who can’t or don’t want to. While the economy is grew at relatively weak 2.3% in 2019, it doesn’t seem to be heading toward recession anymore. People are more optimistic about it than they’ve been since before the Great Recession.

While we’ve lost much of our respect in the world, most Americans don’t care. They only know that Trump killed an Iranian general who supported terrorism and that, essentially, nothing happened. They don’t care that Russia has more influence over the Middle East than we do. They don’t know that Europeans are reassessing their relationship with United States and looking more toward each other for security and economic development.  Instead, they’ll cheer an ineffective wall that falls down in wind storms, is tunneled under and cut through with power tools you can buy at Lowe’s. 

A friend of mine said last night that Trump will probably get re-elected and we deserve him. Democrats failed to reform our system when they had the chance, so now Republicans get to do it their way. Trump and company will play on the ugliest strains of racism and xenophobia to motivate their base while giving huge tax breaks to the rich, cutting protections for the environment and worker safety and leaving the next generation with a staggering debt. It’s a recipe for greater inequality, an increasingly dilapidated infrastructure and more resentment directed at the wrong people, but, for now, it seems to be a winning formula. 

Maybe next week I’ll be at the top of the roller coaster.

6 Comments

  1. Norma Munn

    Your analysis is probably mostly correct, but I do question one aspect, i.e., “The unemployment rate is so low that the only people who aren’t working are those who can’t or don’t want to.” There are a great many people working at two part time jobs, or working with erratic and limited hours which prevents them from even getting a second job. I see people every week at the food pantry where I volunteer who are simply paid so little, they run out of money for groceries. Or have to put off paying the utility bill if they buy food. The unemployment figures look good but cover up a lot of problems. I doubt some of the underemployed will vote, but if they do, I would not count on it being a Trump vote, and probably not Joe Biden.

    Also, exactly when did the Democrats have a chance to reform the system, and what parts would you have wanted them to reform?

  2. Ebrun

    Democrats are reaping what they have sowed—vitriol, identify politics, intolerance of opposing views, arrogance, sanctimony, elitism, fear mongerIng and hatred for their political opponents. This will be a scorched earth campaign by both sides and liberals will rue the day that they refused to accept the election of Donald Trump.

    • cocodog

      Trump has set new records in being the most despicable president in the history of this country. Numerous bad foreign policy calls, resulting in having to subsidize the farmers for lost sales, firing folks who exercise common sense but disagree with him, diverting funds from the military budget to build a wall that even members of the Border Patrol regard as a joke, impeachment followed by a sham proceeding refusing the introduction of evidence or witnesses in the republican controlled senate. Calling for foreign adversaries to meddle in our elections on his behalf. Engaging in paying off porn stars and others to buy their silence, than denying it when confronted with the evidence. Six of his campaign staff convicted felons, currently serving their sentences or on their way. You say we are engaging in “vitriol, identify politics”! You are correct in one of your conclusions, a lot of us find issues with Trump’s presidency.

  3. Shel W. Anderson

    Maybe have another cup of coffee? I enjoy your commentary and hate to see you pessimistic. I agree with your first sentences – we’re in chaos time and can’t predict what ‘black swan’ event will come up to switch everything around again. Who would have thought that old fuddy duddy Iowa would create such a muddle? Your commentary is just what I worry about – people will get tired and discouraged, maybe even bored, and we won’t have the energy when we need it. How did we get a 2 year campaign anyway?

  4. Rick Gunter

    I don’t know how and am unsure how, but Trump ultimately will get what he deserves. I still contend that his story will not end well for him. Those who do evil in the world ultimately are brought low. The only problem is that a lot of people are hurt in the meantime. What concerns me goes deeper than this horrible man. I worry about his supporters, both rich and poor. How could they support him? What are they drinking? The rich cling to their tax cuts, I suppose. The poor, well, many of them see in Trump a reflection of their own worst angels and see him as expressing their darkness. It all makes for a horrible time in the U.S.A. I absolutely fear for my country and its future. We are on the ropes, and too many Americans fail to grasp what is happening to us and to them.

  5. Mary Hughes Brookhart

    One bright spot last night—most unfortunately too late for most of us to notice or care—was what I thought was the excellent Democratic response to the SOTU by Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.

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