Here’s my unpopular view of the week, possibly year. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris accord is his smartest political move yet. He’s satisfying both his base and conservative critics who’ve been doubting him from the beginning. He’s turned the conversation from health care and Russian collusion to climate change, an issue with limited political punch.
Conservative writers and activists have been bashing Trump since before he was president. They detest his isolationist foreign policy and are suspicious of his ties to Putin. They don’t like Steve Bannon or Breitbart and they’ve bashed Fox News for shilling for Trump instead of conservative values.
Yesterday, though, conservatives stayed silent and some were praising his decision. They’ve never liked the Paris agreement for the same reason they don’t like the United Nations. They don’t want other countries dictating what we do with our policies. Trump’s finally doing something they can agree with, even if they might disagree about the why.
As for Trump’s base, they’re loving it. They’ve got no use for Europeans and most flat out don’t believe in climate change. They’ve bought the Fox News line that the whole thing is a liberal hoax. This is the Trump they love, snubbing his nose at intellectuals, liberal elites and the European effete.
As for the liberals and progressives, they’ve overreacted, howling and pronouncing the pending end of the world. Liberal billionaire and climate activist Tom Steyer tweeted, “If Trump pulls the US out of the #ParisAgreement he will be committing a traitorous act of war against the American people.” How ridiculous. Statements like that do more harm to his credibility than advancing any argument to reduce carbon emissions.
Pulling out of the Paris accords is the first step in rebuilding a coalition that can maintain GOP control of Congress and re-elect Trump in 2020. He needs some legislative victories now, but he’s bought himself a couple of neutral news cycles heading into the weekend that rallies both his base and conservatives. He may blow it with a few crazy tweets or ill-timed lies but for now he’s got the first breathing room he’s had in a long while.
He made a classic bait-and-switch and the opposition bought it. They’re chasing him down the apocalypse hole while the GOP Senate is regrouping on the health care bill. The White House and Congressional Republicans will try to regain control of the message and narrative next week. It’ll be tough with the Comey hearings coming up on Thursday, but Democrats have done a lousy job of managing expectations. Instead of showing maps with coastal cities underwater in 100 years, they should be talking about the damage to the renewable energy sector that’s been creating hundreds of thousands of jobs across the country.
Donald Trump is not going to get impeached and he’s not likely to resign. Democrats banking on his implosion should rethink their strategy. Instead of waiting for more self-inflicted wounds, they should be fighting moves to bring back pre-existing conditions and offering policy solutions that help working-class families.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Mr. Mills,
You are a very smart guy, and you may be right about Trump’s savvy in pulling the U.S. out of the Paris agreement. But I believe time will prove you wrong about Mr. Trump’s fate. I seriously doubt that he will finish his first term as president. He will be impeached or resign. You underestimate the Russian mess. And Lord knows, something else might come along even worse tht Russiagate to take him down. He has not been in office four months yet and is surrounded by investigations.
I would be the first one to say that my record on Mr. Trump is not very good. I underestimated the GOP’s folly in nominating him. I also underestimated the stupidity of the American people in electing him. I had this haunting feeling that he would be elected, but believed that ultimately the people would have enough sense to deny him the presidency. Again, I was dead wrong. And I may be wrong about this being an abreviated presidency. Three strikes and I am out. But the country cannot afford four years of this guy in the Oval Office.
History, I truly believe, will be very harsh on his enablers and supporters also. Each of us, but especially our elected leaders, will be judged on whether we resisted Mr. Trump or enabled him. While I have been wrong about his so-called “wins,” I believe I am on the right side of history. I won’t be around to see if history is kinder to Mr. Trump or to the citizens who resisted him. But I will take my chances that I am right and he and his enablers are very wrong on virtually every issue facing the republic.
D.g., Do you think those U.S. states and cities that say they will comply with the terms of the Paris Climate Agreement are going to contribute to the billions of U.S. dollars pledged to developing nations by the Obama administration as called for in the agreement? Be interesting to see if they put their money behind their idealogical posturing. LOL
Mr. Mills, I couldn’t agree more. Sadly, it looks like the Trump opposition is going to continue to blunder along in the same myopic way as cost them political control in 2016.
Trump bought himself some breathing room then promptly used it to throw more gasoline on the fire his administration has become.
One might agree with you, Thomas, in seeing it as a master move by Trump, one meant to to shore up his base, earn plaudits from conservatives, and flash a new shiny object to deflect attention away from Russia and possible impeachment/legal charges.
Or, one might see it as an ill-conceived move that will further solidify the resistance against him. There were peaks of outrage and protest immediately after the inauguration, then after his EO in immigration, and then after the initial Trumpcare bill. This latest action by Trump seems to have turned the volume and passion of outrage up again,
Trump can try to hold his base all he wants. If approval polls are any indicator, however, his supportive base has been reduced some since election day (down 6-7 percentage points). Unless he can start to GAIN support from independents (and those who’ve already had some buyer’s remorse from their November vote), he’s a hurting puppy…..
Trump’s base is getting smaller by the day. Even the minimally-informed have gotten quiet. His fiercest supporters will soon tire of lording his victory over the “libtards” who were “butthurt” by the election.
If coal mining returns to West Virginia in a robust way, it will come back with massive earth movers capable of pushing mountain tops into verdant valleys. People will be on the sidelines watching their forests and streams turn to toxic waste. At some point, the MAGA people will tire of waiting for the check that is not coming in the mail. Across the job spectrum, Trump’s empty promises will become transparent with time. He has no plan.
Ignorance is a long-term commitment for many of his voters, but there were those who capitulated out of expediency. The breadth of his support is razor thin. People with a vestige of morality were offended by his sexual assaults on women and his language, but they held on, hoping for a ban on abortion. People who love their guns more than they love their country or school children supported him because they expected a knock on the door from the government demanding their weapons. The knock did not and will never come. The racists may enjoy the cross burnings and rallies, but eventually, they, the neediest Americans, will notice that jobs have not returned and that their ignorance is not a virtue in an Information-based, cyber economy. Those who hated Obama’s health plan are seeing that medical care is a complex issue, and they will notice if their family members begin to get sick and succumb to illness or injury.
Trump, as a businessman. was not the kind of man who would honor his contracts. He does not negotiate in good faith. His signature was tantamount to an empty promise. He was embroiled in thousands of lawsuits in which he failed to honor his side of bargains he made. As a politician, he discovered something more tenuous than contracts, he found the campaign promise – easy to make and easier to break. There is no accountability in that world. It was like printing counterfeit money people would accept.
Trump base is shrinking as reality sinks in.
When Trump is finally forced to reveal his taxes, his base will leave him once and for all. Everyone will be witness to the panorama of villains and gangsters his businesses embrace, his failure to pay taxes in defiance of laws that we obey will become a fact. His traitorous betrayal of the United States as an agent of Russia’s dictator will finally be undeniable and indefensible to even the most uneducated of his followers.
He has made America a smaller, meaner, dumber place. He is a stupid, weak man. Our allies know it. They laugh at him. The oligarchs in our country will use him until he can no longer help them. They too will walk away from him. Trump’s Paris Accord speech made the lunatics cheer. He is the most popular inmate in the asylum.
America is a big, great, open, fabulous country. Americans are fundamentally good, decent hard-working people. Trump is a carpetbagger with bad hair in serious need of psychiatric care. He struts and frets his hour on stage, but his time will be up, sooner than he expects. His act is getting old.
Jay, Both eloquent and true!
Thom is right again. Trump’s base doesn’t care about right and wrong. They care about sticking it to the establishment that they believe has betrayed them. Democrats need to spend less time howling about Trump and more time putting forth an alternative vision for what the country is. Deplorables know what you think about them and they could care less. They revel in liberals’ disgust. Like a toddler, the best thing to do is let them tantrum and protest and whine – just move on to what should be done.
America’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Accords is the official abdication of world leadership to China. And to think, this is a GIFT to a communist country and not something we were forced to do. We can now brag that we are the greatest “clean coal” country in the world while China and the EU focus on technologies aimed at the future, sustainability, and the health and well-being of their children. The U.S., instead, is ideologically bankrupt.
He may shore up his stupid base all he wants, the real point is his inability to draw into his circle more supporters. He remains at 30% or so, while losing many who believe he was the 2nd coming of Jesus. Once the heathcare debacle is presented to the public I am convinced talk of climate change will b/c a part of the nose-bleed section of his admiring audience.
I agree, Thomas.
Not to mention Trump has framed the whole thing as the first step in “negotiating a better deal” – his strong suit.
Trump’s ability to negotiate better deals is pure fiction. The man is an imbecile.
I beg to differ. Trump has serious problems, but he is quite good at making business deals. Scott Adams of Dilbert fame has actually done a pretty good job of laying out how Trump used a winning strategy to carry the election.
In regards to his business dealings, his typical deal is to buy a distressed property and then threaten the creditors that they had better take pennies on the dollar of what is owed them, or else he’ll shut the whole thing down and then the creditors will get close to nothing.
Great work if you can get it – and if you have no sense of shame or decency. But then again, that’s always been the heart and soul of American Business – winning by any means necessary, and the losers be damned.
Chris,I think you’re missing the definition of “great” in the context of business deals. Trump’s deals are “great” as defined by the “great” train robbery. The man is a master thief. But you surely noticed the effects of the same approach on the world’s economy in 2008 when the same tactics were used to attempt to rip off some investors? Wholesale disaster! I’m no economist but I some how suspect defaulting on U.S debt is not going to work well for the country. Divine intervention would be a good thing about now.
I suppose someone can be “smart” and stupid simultaneously. To be fair, I’ve seen several articles about the damage to the renewable energy sector (and the subsequent loss of jobs there). At NC District 6 Town Halls with Rep. Mark Walker this week, health care concerns (along with preference for single-payer) and harmful policies (budget cuts, mass deportation, border wall) were at the top of the list of concerns. We should start asking for what we REALLY want instead of getting mired down in statistics-filled debates.
To that end Jane, the question remains, “what are the voters going to do in District 6 when Mark Walker comes around wanting support in 2018?” Despite his votes that are contrary to what those town hall speakers cited going to tip the scale and invoke change? Or will they simply let bygones be bygones and send him back to Washington to continue doing what he has proven he’ll do? Which is voting against the people of District 6 and for the faceless entities that give him money.
I wonder.