Both Pat McCrory and Richard Burr say they’ll support the eventual Republican nominee. At this point, there’s a good chance that will be Donald Trump, which has Democrats positively giddy. Trump, as well all know, is toxic in the general election and will be a drag on just about everyone with an “R” next to their name.

There’s reason to be skeptical about the conventional wisdom, however – just as one should always question the conventional wisdom whenever Donald Trump is involved. For one, I think voters see that Trump’s candidacy represents a hostile takeover of the Republican Party. Trump is barely a Republican. He’s Donald Trump and has his own brand. That should mitigate the damage.

Because the breakup between Trump and the establishment GOP is so out in the open, I think voters will be easily able to distinguish Trump and a mainstream Republican. That’s not to say that if Trump goes down in flames in the general that Burr and McCrory won’t be affected. They will – I’m just not sure it will be to the extent Democrats are hoping.

The most recent parallel to this in North Carolina was the George McGovern campaign of 1972. North Carolina Democrats didn’t go out of their way to disavow McGovern, but they sure didn’t mention him much on the campaign trail. That year saw Jesse Helms get elected by portraying his opponent as a McGovern Democrat. “McGovern/Galifianakis” was the slogan.

The problem with seeing this year as a 1972-in-reverse is that McCrory and Burr are mostly known quantities. Nobody seriously thinks they’re Republicans in the mold of Trump. Heck, Trump’s rise might actually help them look more reasonable and moderate.

And Democrats have their own problems. You know that lady they’re about to nominate? The one with the e-mail server that the FBI is looking into? Yeah, that one.

Bottom line: while it would be political malpractice for the Democrats not to tie McCrory and Burr to an unpopular figure heading the national ticket, I doubt it will be the decisive factor in their respective races. And there’s always the chance that Trump will actually prove a tougher general election candidate than people think. At this point, there’s nothing in this election cycle that would surprise me.

6 Comments

  1. Walt de Vries, Ph.D.

    John: You are too young to remember the 1964 Goldwater/Johnson election but it is more analogous to the 2016 election year than the presidential election of 1972. Re-read Teddy White’s, The Making of the President, 1964, because he describes the almost identical angst, vocal protests and predicted doom by the then GOP “establishment” (Romney, Rockefeller, Scranton, Rhodes, et.al) of 1964. They made the same warnings during the months preceding the convention as those you are hearing today from Mitt Romney and other current GOP “establishment” types. And, the 2016 “establishment” concerns about what Trump will do to the down ballot races–for example, in North Carolina–are real and troubling. The 1964 Goldwater nomination in San Francisco–I was there as Michigan Governor George Romney’s Executive Assistant– and his subsequent crushing defeat effectively wiped out Republican candidates for state and local offices all over this country. McCrory, Burr, and many other GOP statewide and even legislative GOP candidates will be impacted even though the new Republican law to make every North Carolina voter a ticket-splitter was supposed to help Republican candidates. Talk about unintended consequences!
    In November, THE Donald will represent THE Republican party and I bet most Democratic candidates at every office on the ballot will be making that point as strongly as they can. I do agree with you, John, when you conclude: “there’s nothing in this election cycle,that would surprise me.”

  2. Lee Mortimer

    John’s status as a clairvoyant is a little cloudy. I recall his prediction in a Feb 8 post about the congressional districts case: “You can be sure that a stay will be issued and we’re going to have these districts going into November.”

    • Apply Liberally

      And with Carson’s campaign now in the tank, same could be said about our resident conservatives’ pipe-dreams back in November. I recall several posts cheering Carson on and implying that his rising popularity would continue to cast fear into the hearts of liberals. Yeah, right.
      A least Wynne got Cason’s fading right……

      See https://www.politicsnc.com/a-question-of-credibility/

    • Apply Liberally

      And with Carson’s campaign now put adrift — by Carson himself, a couple of conservative commenters here have proven that their own crystal balls are full of ….. snow. I’m just recalling their many November 2015 posts about how Ben Carson’s rising popularity would likely continue, and would cast fear into the hearts of liberals. Right……

      See those at: https://www.politicsnc.com/a-question-of-credibility/

  3. Vivian Roberti

    It would be nice if we have a professorial leader as presidential trust Hillary not to get us embroiled in another war which our last republican president while running up our debt 16 trillion dollars. With that record how can the GOP leaders not reassure us that they would be cautious about governing our country. I’ve heard nothing like that from them

  4. Apply Liberally

    LOLOLOL! So that’s gonna be the spin from the GOP and its nominees? You’re kidding!?

    “Ya see,Trump is not a real Republican, and our party did nothing to create him, or support him, or accept him, or nominate him, or give him a bully pulpit at the debates. While we weren’t paying attention, he overwhelmed us, took us over in hostile fashion. And those 40% of Republicans who were either scammed, bamboozled, or hypnotized into voting for him in our primaries? Their cheering on of Trump’s xenophobia, racism, nativism, goonish mauling of demonstrators, and 4th-grade level taunting was just due to their being passionate and caught up in the moment. And finally, we HAD to continue to say we’d support him as our nominee, even after Super Tuesday, because…well….Obama.”

    Yeah, that approach is gonna work, Mr. Wynne……..

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