Two predictions

by | Jan 4, 2018 | Editor's Blog, Politics | 11 comments

I said that I wouldn’t make any New Years predictions, but I’m going to make a couple. First, Trump will not be impeached and won’t be removed by the 25th Amendment—at least not as long as Republicans control Congress. Second, he’s not going to change. So just buckle up for the year ahead.

Trump is going to continue to be Trump. He’s not going to let up on twitter and he’s not going to moderate his feed. Trump is, at heart, a showman, not a politician or leader. His goal is attention and he wants to dominate the public conversation. His audience now includes people across the world, not just those who watch reality TV.

That’s bad for Republicans. They’re feeling confident after passing tax reform and anxious to move on to other policy proposals like cutting Social Security, Medicare and food stamps. They’ll have to compete with Trump for attention and spend time figuring out how distance themselves from his most controversial actions while not drawing his ire. He makes governing very difficult for a party that’s already having trouble unifying itself enough to get much done.

Trump’s not going to be impeached. Republicans in Congress face an uphill battle in the 2018 elections and dumping Trump would give them even more trouble. While he may have the lowest approval ratings of any president in history at this point in his tenure, he also has a base that is solidly behind him. If the establish Republicans try to throw him overboard, they’ll face a revolt from their base. Trump may be a drag on the 2018 ticket but they can’t afford to lose the 30% or so of the population that stands adamantly behind him.

After Trump’s tweets threatening nuclear war with North Korea this week, speculation about his sanity is running high. Politico says a group of Senators invited a psychiatrist to brief them on Trump’s mental state. She apparently told them that he’s unstable and is “going to unravel,” leading to a discussion about the provision in the 25th Amendment that allows for removal of the president if the vice president and a majority of the cabinet decide he’s mentally or physically unfit. Again, that’s not going to happen. Mike Pence might want to be president but if he leads the effort to remove Trump, he’ll never get through a Republican primary.

So, expect 2018 to look a lot like 2017 except with elections. Republicans in Congress will try to pass something significant while fighting for attention with Trump. The Mueller investigation will continue but don’t expect any action from Congress. It’s more likely that the investigation unveils shady financial dealings between Trump, Inc. and the Russians than evidence that campaign collusion upended the election. If that’s true then the people in the Trump business organization will fall before the president does. And the GOP won’t act on any of Trump’s actions before November, regardless of what the investigation finds or recommends.

11 Comments

  1. Jim

    My prediction: Donald Jr., Jared Kushner and likely others will be indicted and the president, like Nixon, will be named an un-indicted co-conspirator. His and their financial dealings, including indebtedness to Russians including Putin, will be revealed. His resignation or promise not to run in 2020 will be negotiated in exchange for keeping his children from going to prison. At that time we will see who means most to him, his family or himself. I won’t predict that one.
    Jim Aycock, Asheville, NC

    • Norma Munn

      I agree that those you named are likely to be indicted in 2018, and naming the orange haired one as an unindicted co-conspirator is a wrinkle I had not considered. However, if the financial dealings are as shady and long lasting as I suspect, they would also involve potential state crimes and the NYS AG , Eric Schneiderman, is unlikely to be willing to negotiate anything. Aside from his political ambitions to replace or succeed Andrew Cuomo, he is genuinely a bit of a crusader for ethical behavior. As for Gov. Andrew Cuomo, he will play both sides on this one with words to the effect that we have to let the justice system deal with this while trying to keep the NYS Senate from falling into the hands of the Democrats. (Not too tough a job actually given that the one time in several decades that the Dems did control the NYS Senate, they made a bloody mess of far too much.)

      Perhaps we can see a deal at a federal level and jail from state charges!! I normally do not feel any joy in seeing people go to jail,but in this case, I would be happy to see them all in orange or black & white stripes — ill fitting, of course. Plus a few others to the list from this administration.

      • Jim Aycock

        Unlike the GOP of our fathers’ day, today’s Republicans seem incapable of feeling guilt or shame. Something stronger will be required, and I see few ways out. They must see themselves in personal danger, if not in the 2018 mid-terms or in the 2020 general election. That means it is up to the voters. We cannot rely on the stacked courts or the Congress. To quote Archibald Cox the day after he was fired as special prosecutor, “Now is the time for Americans and the Congress to decide if they will be governed by laws or by men.” That was then; today the Congress cannot be relied upon, putting it squarely in the hands of the voters.

        • Norma Munn

          Yes, relying on Congress would be about like assuming one can fly. Perhaps the new threat of arresting pot smokers will move another group of voters into the voting booth.

          • ebrun

            After reading the comments under this thread, I can understand why so many liberals support the legalization of marijuana. What a great way to escape reality. You can just keep smoking the weed and revel in your dreamy fantasies.

          • Jim Aycock

            Mueller will raise the ugly head of reality.

  2. Norma Munn

    I agree that the GOP will not impeach Trump, and I think there is zero chance of the 25th Amendment being used. And if Mueller uncovers the shady dealings that seem to have taken place repeatedly by the various Trump enterprises, then a lot of other folks may end up in court (or jail). The latter includes Trump children and Kushner.

    But, the legal issue regarding Trump and the Russians is not whether or not there was collusion, or even whether some interchanges between campaign operatives and/or family member, made a difference in the outcome of the election. (That is a separate issue to which we may never know the answer.) The issue is whether Trump after becoming president has obstructed efforts to investigate the actions of those who were dealing with the Russians, i.e., obstruction of justice. Increasingly it seems he has. It is not clear that a sitting president can be indicted, and Mueller may not seek that outcome, which would most certainly end up in the Supreme Court. In lieu of that choice, Mueller can (must, actually) provide the information to the Congress which would have the duty of considering impeachment. In that instance, regardless of the strength of the evidence, I would not hold my breath waiting for that to happen.

    However, if Trump’s children and son-in-law were indicted, then Trump’s behavior would certainly be explosive. Firing Mueller would, I think, be guaranteed. At that point, unless Congress acts, the Mueller investigation might end. The information from the Mueller investigation would then be under the control of the Justice Dept and/or the US Attorney in the district where those indicted reside. Take a look at the new US Attorneys for NYC (Manhattan and Brooklyn) appointed by Sessions two days ago. Very doubtful either would do anything to the Trump clan. Whether there is legal standing for anyone in Congress or anywhere to challenge any of this is something about which I know zilch, but the Supreme Court avoids hot potatoes very skillfully. I think they would reject any request to act on any challenge to Trump firing Mueller on the grounds that it is a Congressional responsibility to deal with.

    If all of this were to be going on during the 2018 elections, some GOP voters might stay home or go over the the dark side and vote Democrat. Either way, as you suggested, I agree that 2018 is going to be a continuation of the chaos of 2017. Most important question of the day, however, is will Trump blame Hillary for this insane weather? And if he did, would his supporters agree, or think he was nuts?

  3. RICK GUNTER

    In my lifetime, there have been four truly cataclysmic periods:

    1. McCarthy era of the late 1940s until 1957.
    2. Vietnam, 1955-1975.
    3. Watergate, 1972-1974.
    4. Trump, 2016-

    The Trump cataclysm is far and away the most perilous of the four episodes. Those who voted for this sociopath and who maintain him in office will answer to history, if mankind still is around one distant day to record and read history.

    A day of reckoning is fast approaching. It will judge those who put country above party and those who don’t. History’s sword shall be swift and sure.

  4. RICK GUNTER

    There will be revelations this year that will force the hands of Termp and the Republiocans to oust this guy. If they make it through 2018 ad the Democrats regain congressional control, a big if, I know, he will be gone next year. I believe there is really damaging revelations yet to come about Trump. I have been wrong about him twice. If I am wrong this time, it’s three strikes against me. But even if he makes it through his term, history is going to censure him and those who enabled and kept him in office.

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